As of: February 24, 2024, 4:35 p.m
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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) visiting a bomb manufacturer in Nizhny Novgorod.
© Vadim Savitsky/Russian Defense Ministry/TASS/Imago
Russia has already sent tens of thousands of soldiers to their deaths in the Ukraine war.
But Moscow continues to provide supplies to the front.
Russia's strength is Europe's inertia - this is how the situation in Ukraine can be summarized two years after the full invasion by the Russian army.
After Vladimir Putin's government realized shortly after February 24, 2022 that a quick victory was not to be expected, the country quickly switched to a war course.
Since then, Russia has always been several steps ahead of Ukraine and its supporters.
At least in the short term, Russia has the upper hand: On the front, the Russian army has recently been able to report slight gains in terrain, especially in the east of Ukraine near Avdiivka.
What is important here is less concrete, manageable success than two other factors.
On the one hand, Russia is paying for the capture of this once 31,000-inhabitant city with very high losses.
According to a pro-Russian military blogger who took issue with the Defense Ministry, at least 16,000 Russian soldiers died in the offensive on Avdiivka.
On the other hand, the fighting there ties up many of Ukraine's forces that it cannot deploy in the south of the country.
Military blogger Andrei Morozov, “Murs,” who reported on the heavy casualties, reportedly committed suicide this week.
As a soldier on site, he had previously complained publicly about the high losses and the untrue reporting about the situation at the front to the leadership.
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Authorities are preparing a silent mobilization
Russia is making up for the high losses with a constant supply of fresh forces.
According to official information, more than 53,600 new soldiers arrived at the front in the first few months of this year alone.
The number cannot be verified.
According to three experts with whom
Table.Media
spoke and who advise conscript men in Russia on how they can avoid military service, the authorities stubbornly continue to recruit - especially in penal colonies and also in orphanages.
Experts do not expect any official mobilization before the presidential elections in mid-March.
“All men liable for military service will now receive a notification that if they are notified, they should report to the relevant units within a few hours.
Then mobilization doesn’t even have to be officially announced,” said an expert.
Reports on the supply of artillery ammunition and missiles from North Korea and Iran also show that Russia continues to pursue its goal of annexing at least parts of Ukraine.
Around 400 Iranian missiles with a range of up to 700 km are said to have arrived in Russia.
However, this news also contradicts Russian claims that they have significantly increased the production of missiles.
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Both sides are counting on time
Fundamentally, the Russian defense industry lacks workers.
According to official information, the last mentioned unemployment rate was 2.9 percent - which basically means that there are no more available workers.
The defense industry is looking for people for simple to highly specialized tasks and is competing with the Ministry of Defense.
According to the independent Russian media Cholod, more and more companies in the civilian sector have to produce for the army because “the demand cannot be met by the defense industry alone”.
The second big problem for Russia: Western sanctions.
Although Moscow manages to indirectly import enough electronic components, especially for rocket and drone construction, the situation with heavy weapons and armored vehicles is much worse.
On this point, the tide is turning in Ukraine's favor in the medium term because artillery production is ramping up in the EU or Ukraine.
However, both the Russian occupiers and the Ukrainian defenders are currently trying to maintain the status quo.
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