Russian forces after the occupation of Abdiyevka, Ukraine,/Telegram
Nine whole months passed between the last two significant territorial achievements of the Russian army in Ukraine, during which tens of thousands of soldiers were killed and wounded and hundreds were destroyed.
The capture of Avdeivka last Saturday was achieved with tremendous bloodshed on both sides, until he, who could not afford to use his fighting force as cannon fodder, was forced to retreat to save further casualties.
Two years into the war in Ukraine - all the updates
The fall of the town in the Donetsk district did not dramatically change the situation on the front, and all that remains of a settlement with about 30 thousand inhabitants is a village of ruins and death.
But it is impossible to ignore the widespread feeling that with the beginning of the third year of the war, the momentum is changing in favor of Vladimir Putin's forces, and not necessarily thanks to the performance of his soldiers or the failure of Ukraine's counterattack last summer.
His army continues to take massive blows on the ground and to conduct itself negligently, but it has an advantage that the Ukrainians do not have: the ability to raise a cheap fighting force, throw it on the battlefield and use it as cannon fodder.
Many of the fighters on the first front line are foreign "volunteers" from poor countries, whom Moscow entices to enlist in its ranks for a few thousand dollars a month.
All this, when the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is treading carefully when it comes to the expansion of conscription into the army.
Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians of service age have fled the country since Russian forces invaded it on February 24, 2022, and many units are suffering from severe shortages of soldiers as the war drags on.
exploits useful idiots from the West to his advantage.
Putin/Reuters
The debate over the scope of the recruitment was at the heart of the rift between Zelensky and his respected chief of staff, Valery Zlozhny, who sought to refresh the ranks with around half a million additional soldiers. The Ukrainian president, suspected of having political ambitions as well, ousted him earlier this year in a dramatic move that was met with displeasure among the fighters at the front.
The difficulty of filling the depleted ranks was among the factors that led to the hasty retreat from Abdiyevka, during which apparently hundreds more soldiers were captured. But this was not the main problem of the Ukrainian forces. The most significant shortage they are experiencing these days is ammunition, which is running out due to wear and tear Support for Kiev in the West, especially in the polarized United States.
A large aid package for Ukraine put together by the Biden administration, amounting to about $60 billion, passed the Senate this month, but its fate was clouded by the opposition of former President Donald Trump's supporters in the House of Representatives. Trump, who is expected to run in November for the bi- A rematch with Joe Biden, who opposes the continued supply of weapons to Kiev.
He even questioned Washington's commitment to providing aid to NATO members who do not meet the necessary defense spending, and gave a glimpse of what his second term in the Oval Office will look like
.
Trump claims that the war would not have broken out if he had stayed in the White House, but he offers no real solutions on how to end the biggest conflict Europe has known since World War II - without demanding the surrender of Ukraine.
The White House blamed the Republicans in Congress for the downfall of Abdiyevka, and the Ukrainian issue, which at the beginning was a consensus among the American public, will be at the center of the election campaign in November.
Ukraine is looking for answers to the recruitment crisis.
Funeral of soldiers in Lviv/Reuters
For Putin, the division in the United States and other European countries over the future of Ukraine is the most significant achievement of 2023. The chaos that Russia has sown in the United States since the 2016 election is producing results, and the Kremlin's false narrative is gaining traction in America through useful idiots such as Tucker Carlson.
While real journalists languish in Russian prisons, including American reporter Ivan Gershkovich, Carlson let Putin spout his imperialist doctrine unhindered in an "interview" from the Kremlin.
Russia, according to him, is the victim in this whole war when the blame is placed on the shoulders of NATO and its spread over the ruins of the communist bloc in Eastern Europe. Ukraine is an artificial country, according to Putin, established by the West to try and tear the Russian nation apart.
In the words of the Russian president, That next month he will sail for another term in elections known in advance, there was a hint of what was to come - Ukraine will not be the last if the West does not come to its senses and save it from the clutches of the Kremlin.
The second year of the war in Ukraine is ending with Putin's position looking more solid than ever, but it was not far from a completely different development.
Putin survived the unprecedented rebellion led by his former ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, who in June marched his Wagner Group fighters towards Moscow in protest of the army's many failures in Ukraine, and since then has not stopped for a moment in re-establishing his rule.
Prigozhin was killed in a mysterious plane crash two months later, which the West says was caused by a sabotage operation planned by Russian intelligence against the man who had been the greatest internal threat to Putin's quarter-century rule.
Last Friday, Putin's biggest political rival also disappeared.
Alexei Navalny, the most compelling figure in the Russian opposition, died under mysterious circumstances in the penal colony where he was imprisoned, weeks before the presidential election.
No commitment to defend NATO members. Trump/Reuters
The Western countries rattled off condemnations, pointed the finger of blame at Putin and promised more and more sanctions - despite their limited effectiveness: the Russian economy proved its immunity and recorded growth of more than 3% in the past year.
The most significant punishment that can be inflicted on Russia is the resumption of the flow of weapons to Ukraine, including long-range missiles capable of striking deep into the Russian occupied territories
.
Kiev has already proven that with limited means, such as unmanned explosive boats, it is able to hurt the Russian navy and re-establish a hold on the Black Sea.
It is still waiting for the arrival of F-16s, although experts estimate that they will not dramatically change the face of the war.
Washington's abandonment of Ukraine will have far-reaching consequences for the security of Europe, and also for the United States itself.
It will encourage other dictators - such as Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is plotting to invade Taiwan - and will undermine the existence of NATO, the strongest military alliance in history that drew its strength throughout its existence from the principle of mutual defense, without any conditions and reservations being placed on it. The
third year of the war in Ukraine will be dramatically affected by the political events in Washington and the success of the American politicians to rise above the regular partisan debates. All this while also in Europe, which will be the main loser from Putin's victory in Ukraine, there are growing voices pressing for a compromise (which means a loss for Kiev), mainly from the direction of the far-right and left-wing parties that are getting stronger and stronger.
And yet , the United States is the one dictating the charge. And according to the current mood, and as the November elections approach, it is difficult to see the House of Representatives passing the Biden aid package without creating additional difficulties and tying it to far-reaching reforms in immigration policy. The
main losers will be, first and foremost, the Ukrainians, who stand Bravely in the face of Putin's brutal machine, but not only them. All citizens of the free world will suffer if the Ukrainian state is erased, and without realizing it they may find themselves in the middle of a new global conflict.
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