As of: February 25, 2024, 7:16 p.m
Comments
Press
Split
Grain as a volatile speculative asset: Aubinger farmer Monika Hagl with a handful of a wheat-rye mixture - feed for her cows.
Farmers are under pressure when it comes to trading in bread wheat.
© Marcus Schlaf
Barley, wheat, rye, corn: grain dominates agriculture in Bavaria.
How economically successful the business becomes for each farmer does not just depend on their grain and the weather.
Global events, such as the Ukraine War, also influence the price on the stock market and a farmer's profit.
It's quiet on Monika Hagl's farm at this time of year.
Two tractors are standing in the sun, the apprentice is carrying feed wheat for the chickens and cattle into the stable.
“This is the demo tractor,” says Hagl as he passes by and points to a large green truck.
It is written in colorful letters: “Don’t forget, we will provide your food!”
Her father already went to the barricades in Brussels in the 1980s for fair prices and planning security.
“Back then, cheap grain from the USA flooded the German market,” remembers the farmer.
And this is more relevant than ever for farmer Monika Hagl.
Since last summer, German farmers have been concerned about one global event: the war in Ukraine and the grain that reached the German trading market.
The market is oversaturated
Farmers are still feeling the effects today, says Hagl.
“The warehouses are full.
The market is oversaturated.”
According to Hagl, this shows how agriculture and agricultural trade are connected all over the world.
“We are just a very small cog of it.”
And the farmer also feels this on her farm in the west of Munich.
Since grain is used and traded all over the world, the price is determined on the world market.
How economically successful the harvest year will be depends on places that are geographically very far away from Hagl's Aubinger arable fields: the large trading centers for grain, the stock exchanges in Paris and Chicago.
“I regularly monitor the prices on the stock exchange and then decide when to sell.” Waiting too long and selling at the wrong moment costs a farmer thousands of euros.
“Farmers are always under pressure,” says the farmer.
Hagl goes to the cows and throws a handful of grain into their trough.
“This is a wheat and rye mixture with a lot of protein,” she says, letting the ground grain run through her fingers.
“The wrong grain choices can ruin you.”
Quality of wheat stock is decreasing day by day
The last harvest year got off to a slow start for Hagl.
Persistent rainfall initially led to delays in the grain harvest and the combine harvesters were unable to move out.
Some of their high-quality bread wheat became low-quality feed wheat.
Monika Hagl had to watch helplessly as the quality of her promising wheat crop deteriorated day by day.
Then came Russia's naval blockade in the Black Sea.
This initially ensured that Ukrainian grain was no longer available on the world market.
The price of grain initially rose.
A few months later, the course in the Black Sea changed and cheaply produced wheat flooded Germany, says Hagl.
According to the Aubinger, wheat, rapeseed and corn in particular entered the EU internal market and caused an oversupply in Germany.
Prices fell and some Bavarian farmers were no longer able to sell their grain, complains the farmer.
Accusation: Numbers are concealed
However, there are officially no reliable figures on the amount of grain from Ukraine.
“That doesn’t surprise me,” replies Hagl.
The numbers are concealed, she explains.
The EU regularly records the import and export figures where the goods enter the EU area for the first time, explains BayWa spokeswoman Antje Krieger.
In the past six months, eight percent more wheat was imported into the EU than in the same period last year.
The statistics do not reveal which countries these goods were distributed to.
My news
“Entrance fee eight euros, wouldn’t work in Tyrol”: Six absurd Google reviews for Viktualienmarktlesen
22-ton machine threatened to fall - tunnel in Munich closed for more than three hours read
Munich's largest rental deal collapsed: next shocking news when reading Elementum
Devastating fire in Maxvorstadt: Flames are already shooting out of the apartment window
Horrible act in Munich: Man assaults an unconscious woman in the middle of the city
These night train connections are available from Munich
“That’s the problem,” says Hagl.
“It is not clearly communicated who actually bought the grain in the end.” There is therefore no reliable evidence as to whether the grain contributes to price pressure on farmers.
The figures from the Federal Statistical Office show that around 100,000 tonnes of wheat were imported in 2023.
An average harvest in Germany is 22 million tons per year.
“What came to Germany from Ukraine is marginal,” says BayWa.
Favorable price of Ukrainian grain is important
The reason is that in Germany the level of self-sufficiency for bread wheat with good baking properties is high, so in this case we are not dependent on imports.
Hagl reacts dryly: Germany is not dependent on it, but the low price of Ukrainian grain ultimately plays a major role in the dealers' purchasing decision.