As of: February 25, 2024, 7:34 p.m
By: Karsten Hinzmann
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Deadlocked fighting: The Russian attack on Ukraine is celebrating its second anniversary.
There is no end to the conflict in sight.
© Dmytro Smolienko/imago-images
Scientists discuss whether and when Russia will attack NATO;
estimated in two to ten years.
The only thing that seems certain is Ukraine's defeat.
Moscow – Nico Lange leaves no room for doubt.
“Many people have difficulty understanding that defense issues are about assuming the worst and preparing for it.
But that is the only way that really leads to reliable security,” says the Eastern Europe expert at the Munich Security Conference.
The question that hovers over Europe as a specter is to what extent Vladimir Putin will have the strength to incorporate parts of other NATO countries after the Ukraine war.
Scholars are somewhat divided over the question of whether Putin ultimately wants to attack NATO and, if so, when he will be able to do so.
Observers assume a period of two to ten years until the Russian dictator deploys - although all planners assume that Russia is more likely to attack with missiles in order to fillet individual targets from NATO, for example the Lithuanian capital Vilnius.
His calculation is estimated to be to grab individual morsels that mean too little to NATO to ignite a global conflagration.
Expert confident: Russia will only be a serious opponent again in ten years
The Austrian political scientist Gerhard Mangott from the University of Innsbruck spreads the greatest optimism against such scenarios: According to him, the Russian army needs ten years to return to its strength before this conflict after the costly war in Ukraine and to be able to meet NATO on an equal footing ;
especially with regard to land forces.
NATO leaders and Western politicians are currently assuming that Russia will be ready in five years;
but at the latest in eight years.
Fabian Hoffmann is even more cautious, as he
told
ZDF .
The political scientist at the University of Oslo wants Western countries to be so armed in two to three years that an attack on NATO would be far too expensive for Putin.
Hoffmann explicitly speaks of an emerging “competition of risk-taking” between Russia and NATO: “Russia's military strategy is basically based on two components: One is the military capabilities, as they are now being used in Ukraine;
The other is the willpower to hold out in a fight with NATO and also to assume that NATO would not be prepared to take ever greater risks in an active combat operation with Russia,” as he says.
Bitter interim situation: Victory for Putin's troops is now clearly an option
The victory of Vladimir Putin's troops in the Ukraine war is now clearly an option and is raising doubts about a favorable outcome for Europe in the Ukraine war.
The fear of Russia is spreading in Europe;
with consequences for all NATO countries.
Especially for those who are at the interface with Russia.
Sweden, for example, is stirring up people's sensitivity to an impending war, as Julian Staib currently writes for the
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
.
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In Sweden, crank-operated radios had recently been sold out, concerned citizens had called helplines, and the newspapers gave advice on how to stock up at home in order to survive for days without help.
The reason was the sometimes drastic warnings from Swedish politicians and military officials about war.
Carl-Oskar Bohlin, Minister for Civil Protection, started the conversation.
“There could be war in Sweden,” he said at the annual People and Defense conference, shocking the country.
Then came Sweden's commander-in-chief Micael Bydén.
He said that the country had to prepare mentally for war and that the situation was worse than it had been since the Second World War.
An attack by Russia cannot be ruled out.
People should ask themselves to what extent they are prepared for what is happening in Ukraine today and what is happening in Sweden.
Likely scenario: Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia
Ukraine will have to cede territory, that is the general fear as the fighting continues.
German military historian Sönke Neitzel says he highly doubts that Ukraine will be able to expel Russian troops from all of its territory - especially Crimea or Donbass.
“I think that is unrealistic from a military perspective.” Gerhard Mangott also assumes that Ukraine will not be able to find a way back to its borders before the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
He therefore advises Ukraine to play for time, as he recently
told the television station
ntv .
He practically has the “Korea model” in mind.
Korea Model: The Still Smoldering War
The communist Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) invaded the Republic of Korea (South Korea) on June 25, 1950 and quickly advanced deep into the South.
The USA then appealed to the United Nations (UN) Security Council, which condemned the attack and issued a mandate for UN troops to intervene.
In mid-September 1950, international troops led by US General Douglas MacArthur landed near Incheon.
The war lasted three years until a ceasefire was concluded in 1953.
In the Federal Republic of Germany as well as in the German Democratic Republic (GDR) there is fear of a military conflict after the start of the Korean War and this is fueling the debate about German rearmament.
The federal government and the SED regime want to make a military contribution for their side in the context of the East-West conflict.
The majority of the population in the West and East is against renewed rearmament.
The Korean War is a reason for the rapid rearmament of the two German states and their integration into the opposing alliance systems of the Warsaw Pact and NATO.
Source: Würz, Markus: “Korean War”, in: Living Museum Online, Foundation House of History of the Federal Republic of Germany
Mangott currently sees no signs that the exhaustion of both sides will turn into a renewed dynamic and assumes that the frozen fighting will result in a longer-lasting ceasefire on a treaty basis that has yet to be negotiated.
However, he warns that while this will “reward the aggressor,” it is precisely this outcome that the West must endure – for a long-term worthwhile cause.
According to him, Ukraine should use the period of the ceasefire to arm itself to the teeth in order to create a deterrent threat against Putin so that worse things can then be prevented or the wheel of time can be turned back.
In his opinion, both sides would have to accept this compromise.
Any battles won by the defenders would ultimately only serve to strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position.
Exhausted Europeans: Ukraine should start negotiations with Russia, according to survey
Due to the armed conflict that has now lasted two years,
many people are pessimistic that Ukraine can win against Russia, according to a recent survey by the
European Council on Foreign Relations .
Only ten percent of those surveyed believe a Ukrainian victory is likely, while twice as many expect a Russian victory.
The largest group – 37 percent – is convinced that an end to the war will be achieved through a negotiated solution.
41 percent of survey participants would like Europe to pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.
According to the information, more than 17,000 adults in twelve EU countries were interviewed for the survey in January 2024, including Germany, France, Poland and Sweden.
“Russia must not win and Ukraine must not lose,” said Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) on
ZDF
shortly after the outbreak of war .
“Our goal must be for Ukraine to be able to defend its sovereignty, its freedom and its desire to live in a democratic country.
We support them for this.” This has been the maxim of the Federal Government and other NATO countries so far.
The fact that Germany, for example, refuses Taurus cruise missiles so that the war cannot spread into the Russian heartland shows that Ukraine is not allowed to win militarily on Russian territory - at least not through direct support from NATO.
It's a rhetorical tightrope walk that science follows in parts, as historian Sönke Neitzel explains: “'Don't lose' could mean that Ukraine still exists in the end and that it is viable.
However, at some point it will probably have to accept the normative force of the fact that parts of its national territory are occupied by Russian troops, at least for the foreseeable future.
For me, the following still applies: If Ukraine doesn’t lose the war, it has won it.”