As of: February 25, 2024, 7:29 p.m
By: Tadhg Nagel
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Press
Split
Little remains of Ukraine's initial hope in the war against Russia.
There is a lack of ammunition and personnel.
Can the country win the war?
Kiev – The war in Ukraine has been raging for two years now.
At first it seemed as if Ukraine could surprisingly successfully defend itself against the Russian invaders.
In the meantime, disillusionment has spread.
Two years of war against a superior enemy have weakened the military and worn out the soldiers.
Added to this is a comparatively mild winter, which causes the battlefields to sink into mud earlier than usual.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj now also sees the difficulty of the situation.
© IMAGO/Ukraine Presidency via Bestimage
“The situation is extremely difficult in some parts of the front”: This is how Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently described the situation in the east of the country.
After Avdiivka fell after seemingly endless fighting, the Russians are now advancing further and further west.
According to US government estimates, 100,000 Russian and 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers had already died in August last year.
People in the USA are still struggling to secure further aid commitments;
Europe will also only be able to deliver half of the promised ammunition by March.
The Western allies hardly have any supplies left for the Soviet weapons systems, which are in use in Ukraine in large numbers.
“People have lost enthusiasm” - There is a shortage of soldiers and ammunition in the Ukraine war
This is noticeable: in the morale of the troops, but also in their operational capabilities.
“We have a big problem with troop numbers.
And men are simply missing.
People have lost the enthusiasm they had at the beginning of the invasion.
We need reinforcements.
Many of our people are exhausted,” said the commander of the 59th brigade of the Ukrainian army in an interview with the broadcaster
ntv
.
The fewer men there are, the longer the remaining ones have to lie in position in the trenches, the commander continued.
Snow and rain alternate, which causes additional problems: “People get sick from it, get the flu or angina.
Then they fail and there is no replacement.”
The leadership in Kiev is also aware of this problem, which is why at the beginning of February it passed a law that provides for the introduction of electronic summonses and new penalties for those who refuse military service.
The human rights commissioner of the Ukrainian parliament, Dimitri Lubinets, sees the law as a violation of international human rights agreements.
Ultimately, the military should not decide whether and when a Ukrainian citizen leaves the country.
In addition, allegations of bribery against the regional military commissariats are rampant.
These are supposed to make able-bodied men unfit for military service for millions of dollars, as the
ARD “Tagesschau”
reported.
So there is little left of the initial enthusiasm for homeland defense.
Russia is also relying heavily on drones - and has twice as much money at its disposal as Ukraine
In addition, the Russians are also constantly adapting their approach.
Drones now dominate the skies over the battlefields.
“Even digging an infantry position is a problem.
As soon as someone is outside, a camera drone sees them.
Then a second drone comes and drops something,” the commander of the 59th brigade told
ntv
.
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According to Ukraine, the country can muster around 800,000 soldiers - against the 1.3 million soldiers that Russia has at its disposal.
In addition, according to ntv, Russia has around twice as much money available for rearmament as Ukraine.
The arms race cannot be won without massive Western support.
Exaggeratedly optimistic hopes: the tide in the Ukraine war seems to have turned
U.S. President Joe Biden's administration's strategy, meanwhile, is to maintain Ukraine's defenses until after the U.S. presidential election in the hope of weakening Russian forces in a long war of attrition.
This is what the US news magazine
Time
writes .
However, keeping Ukraine on the defensive indefinitely means that the territories currently occupied by Russia are lost.
At the negotiating table, Russia will never be willing to give up territory that it was able to hold on the battlefield.
Proponents of a complete Ukrainian victory would continue to have overly optimistic hopes - but this would be foolish.
In order for Ukraine to have a chance, military history shows, it needs a 3:2 surplus in personnel and significantly more firepower.
Ukraine enjoyed these advantages in the first year of the war, but now they belong to Russia.
And it is very difficult to see how Ukraine can win them back.
Ultimately, the Ukrainians are also prepared to accept the loss of some territories as the price of peace if Ukraine fails to retake them on the battlefield - especially if the alternative would be years of bloody war with little chance of success.
(tpn)