As of: February 25, 2024, 9:10 p.m
By: Mark Stoffers
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Donald Trump's victory in South Carolina makes the nomination as the Republican candidate in the US election a formality.
Putin's calculations threaten to pay off.
Columbia - After Donald Trump's triumph in the US primary election in South Carolina, the ex-president is taking big steps towards a Republican nomination in the 2024 US election.
A possible re-election of Donald Trump would not only have consequences for the USA, NATO and Europe, but possibly also for US support in the Ukraine war.
Trump success in the US primary election in South Carolina: Is Joe Biden really Putin's favorite?
A circumstance that could also play into the hands of Russia and especially President Vladimir Putin.
After all, even before Trump's success in South Carolina, various Kremlin propagandists had already expressed their preference for the ex-president to return to the White House.
In their view, Trump, who made an embarrassing mistake in his victory speech, better serves Russia's interests.
But the messages from the Kremlin are by no means clear.
After all, Putin told Russian state media this month that he would prefer Joe Biden to win the US election in November despite poor polls because, unlike Trump, he is “predictable.”
Actually unimaginable, since the USA announced new sanctions against Russia as a result of the death of Alexei Navalny and Biden made it clear who he believed was responsible for the death of the Kremlin critic.
After Trump's success in South Carolina: Does Putin continue to prefer Joe Biden as US President in the Ukraine war?
Even before the Ukraine war started by Putin, Biden had called the Russian ruler a “killer”.
So could the Russian leader be serious when he says he prefers the “more experienced” Biden?
Or is it all just a diversionary tactic on Moscow’s part?
"I don't believe for a second that Putin would actually choose Biden over Trump," Brian Taylor, a politics professor at Syracuse University, New York, told
Newsweek
.
“Trump and Biden’s views on supporting Ukraine and going to war with Russia are so radically different that Putin would see it in his interest if Trump came back.”
Trump's possible success in the 2024 US election: Will Putin then have a free hand in the Ukraine war?
According to Taylor's statement, Putin hopes that Trump wins the 2024 US election.
“I think he believes that if Russia can hold its own next year and Trump returns then he will essentially have a free hand in Ukraine,” says Taylor, also author of “The Code of Putinism.”
Nevertheless, the expert puts his assessments into perspective.
“That may not necessarily be the case in reality, but I think that’s how he perceives things.”
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Andrew Harnik
Nevertheless, Trump, who probably has more trust in Putin than in the US intelligence services, has in the past described Russia's rulers as "smart" and boasted about his good relations with the Russian leader.
He even claimed, without giving details, that he could end the war in Ukraine started by Putin within “24 hours.”
Putin against NATO: Trump's success in the US election could have fundamental effects on the alliance
But even beyond the Ukraine war, Trump's success in the US election could have fundamental effects on the geopolitical landscape.
Ultimately, Putin may have listened to Trump's statements about NATO.
A theme the Republican picked up again on February 10, when he told a rally in South Carolina that Russia could “do whatever it wants” with NATO members who did not meet the minimum commitment of 2 percent of defense spending.
NATO statements like these from Trump make it clear how different his and Joe Biden's positions are.
“It is in Russia’s interest that there is chaos in the transatlantic relationship and uncertainty about whether the alliance can hold together,” said Taylor, “which is exactly what a figure like Trump would bring.”
Even with Trump's US election defeat: Putin has already achieved the greatest “individual victory” against NATO
But even if Trump suffers defeat in the US election in November, Putin can still point to questions about the alliance's future as part of the conversation, Ken Osgood, a history professor at the Colorado School of Mines, also told
Newsweek
.
For Putin, this is already “the greatest single victory that a Russian leader has achieved since 1949,” Osgood continued.
“Breaking solidarity with NATO has been the goal of every Russian leader since Joseph Stalin.”