The first months of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine saw resistance prevail.
Then came the time for the liberation of the territories captured by the autocrat Vladimir Putin, with the financial support and weapons sent by the Western allies, and a long-awaited and long-awaited counteroffensive that, however, did not come to fruition.
Now, Ukraine begins the third year of large-scale war: that of survival.
A moment in which it faces new tests on the battle front, with exhausted troops and lack of ammunition, and a Russia that has recovered part of the initiative and that, according to some sources, is preparing a new major offensive for the end of spring.
kyiv will also have obstacles to overcome at home, where Volodymyr Zelensky's Government must maintain the support of an exhausted citizenry;
and outside, where the support of one of its main allies, the United States, is foundering while the European Union fears being left alone in its aid to kyiv and with an endless war on the continent.
It is a critical point.
If Ukraine crosses it, it will be able to regain the initiative.
“We have to do everything that depends on us so that 2024 becomes a decisive year to restore the real and long-term security of Ukraine, Europe and the world,” Zelensky stressed this Saturday before the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni ( president of the G-7 group this semester);
his Canadian counterpart, Justin Trudeau;
the Belgian Alexander de Croo (current president of the Council of the EU), and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
At Hostomel airport, one of the symbols of the Ukrainian resistance that prevented Russian troops from taking over the capital after the full-scale invasion, Western leaders have tried to show that, although Washington's support is at risk, the of the rest of the allies will not decline.
The visit, however, has not been accompanied by major economic announcements - Canada has promised about 2,000 million euros - or military announcements.
“You saved your country, you saved Europe,” Von der Leyen declared before dozens of soldiers who participated in the battle for Hostomel, an airfield that will be rebuilt through a project by the Ukrainian aeronautical company Antonov valued at around 1,000 million. euros in which the Spanish Indra participates.
“Ukraine can count on all the G-7 nations and the EU.
We have never backed down and we have no intention of doing so now, despite what some propaganda says,” Meloni stated.
Von der Leyen has also assured that he will present the negotiating framework for kyiv's accession to the community club in mid-March.
On Wednesday, her announcement that this roadmap would only be presented at the end of summer stung not only in Ukraine but also in the European Council and in many capitals, which made the head of the community Executive look bad about this step backwards, which many attributed to her electoral race towards a second term.
“The best guarantee of security for Ukraine will be its entry into the EU,” Von der Leyen said.
The enlargement of the EU towards the east, which will change the community club forever, and the absorption of Ukraine is a point of tension in some countries of the Union, which see the country invaded (eminently agricultural and which will be a large recipient of funds ) as a competitor.
And this is another of the tests that kyiv must go through this year, in which it must also deepen its internal democratic reforms to assimilate into the EU and advance along the path of accession.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, during a meeting with the media at the Mariinsky Palace in kyiv this Saturday. Associated Press/LaPresse (APN)
The majority of Europeans support Ukraine's entry into the community club, especially in very European countries, such as Spain, according to the latest Eurobarometer carried out for the European Parliament.
However, polls also reveal that pessimism has increased in many EU countries about Ukraine's chances of winning the war: only 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine will win while twice as many people expect a Russian victory. according to an ECFR survey, carried out in 12 countries and made public this week.
At the moment, the war is in a phase of stagnation.
Ukraine has liberated 50% of the territories that the Kremlin troops had invaded, has managed to neutralize the Russian Black Sea fleet, preserve the operation of the port of Odessa and neutralize the Crimean peninsula (annexed by Russia in 2014) as a point of attack, NATO sources say.
Orysia Lutsevych, director of the Ukraine section of the Chatham House think tank, believes that the pessimism shown in some polls has a lot to do with the collapse of the counteroffensive.
“Europeans do not see many tangible gains and have high expectations that have not been met.
Furthermore, they think about the high energy prices in their countries and are still experiencing the consequences of the pandemic,” she explains by phone from London.
“Within Ukraine, hope and confidence in having a good future exceeds 50%,” says the expert, who warns that in Europe a majority is still not aware of the consequences for each of the European households that may have to be Russia won the war.
“The mistake is to separate the security of the West from that of Ukraine.
“Everything is the same,” says Lutsevych.
Western intelligence analyzes indicate that this is the year in which Putin – who has completed 25 years in power and next month faces unopposed elections to remain in the Kremlin chair until 2030 – will seek to consolidate his gains and advantages. and is already preparing a new offensive on the eastern and southern flank.
Furthermore, he is finalizing new destabilization activities, coinciding with the European elections in June - crucial and a
also internal test for several member states—and the November presidential elections in the United States.
Both will also mark a decisive point for Ukraine, which is already an essential element of the campaign.
Russia, which feeds on turbulence, also seeks to destabilize Moldova and will use the Kaliningrad enclave and the North Sea to intimidate its neighbors.
Ukraine faces this third year of large-scale war, that of survival, with depleted ammunition reserves.
A year ago, the EU approved an initiative to send one million artillery rounds to kyiv.
But that plan, advanced by EL PAÍS, has not been fulfilled.
By the end of March, 524,000 projectiles will have been delivered and in December alone the million will have been exceeded.
kyiv resists and survives while waiting for more and more powerful weapons.
The Western allies—who hide behind the industry's production capacity, which, however, has increased by 40%—have sent enough to resist but not to win.
Germany, for example, continues to deny Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Although NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted for the first time this week that Ukraine has the right to attack military targets on Russian territory, in accordance with international law.
The words of the head of the Alliance, who measures what he says to the millimeter, may in some way be the green light that some allies need to send longer-range weapons to kyiv.
Meanwhile, the invaded country hopes to receive the first F-16s this summer from Denmark, one of the dozen NATO countries that has already signed long-term security commitments that will guarantee support for kyiv.
Italy and Canada also signed their own agreements this Saturday in kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky listens to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a ceremony at Hostomel airport in kyiv this Saturday.Nathan Denette (AP)
But the shadows on the horizon coming from the United States are dark.
The aid of 56 billion euros promised by the president of the United States, Joe Biden, remains paralyzed in the House of Representatives by the Republican majority supportive of Donald Trump.
The former US president, and now candidate, has his own complicated history with Ukraine: he motivated his first
impeachment
when he demanded Zelensky investigate Biden's son's business in that country.
Trump – the candidate with the best chance of reaching the White House in the November presidential elections, according to polls – has cast doubt on NATO's mutual aid clause by ensuring that he will allow Russia to attack any ally that does not invest enough in defence.
The EU keeps aid flowing.
But he has less and less room to make historic announcements of support for kyiv.
With the new financial lifeline of 50 billion euros (for four years) approved by Brussels on February 1, Europe has already committed 144 billion euros to Ukraine, of which it has delivered 77,000, according to the
Kiel Institute of World Economy (35.5 billion correspond to military supplies).
Meanwhile, it is trying to give the green light to a new special fund to send more weapons to Ukraine, endowed with 5,000 million, which, however, clashes with the concerns of some countries that want it to be only to spend on European industry and others, such as Germany, who demand that it be used not only for joint purchases but also to reimburse what the partners have delivered with bilateral pacts to kyiv.
In total, European assistance has far exceeded that of the United States. Since Russia began its invasion, Washington has approved four packages for a total value of 43 billion, but these funds ran out last November without Congress being able to approve the new financing promised by Biden.
Furthermore, the promise of the head of the Community Executive in the Ukrainian capital to provide continued support to Kiev for the duration of the war may face problems if Washington's new package is not finally approved this year, in the midst of the November presidential campaign.
In that case, Europe would have to practically double its military support.
“It is a challenge, but ultimately it is a question of political will,” says Christoph Trebesch, the director of the German institute.
“EU states are among the richest in the world and so far they have not invested even 1% of their GDP in aid to Ukraine,” says the expert.
A woman visits the grave of her relative, a murdered Ukrainian soldier, on the second anniversary of Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Lviv, this Saturday. PAVLO PALAMARCHUK (REUTERS)
Pending is the reaffirmation of the legal framework to be able to use the multimillion-dollar benefits generated by Russian assets frozen by sanctions in the West in the reconstruction of Ukraine.
And plug the loopholes left by the sanctions on Russia and that still allow, through circumvention from other countries with dual-use technology (military and civil), to continue fueling the war.
The defense industry, weapons manufacturing and the renewal of arsenals is a test for Ukraine, which urgently needs ammunition, but also for the EU.
The community club wants to move towards a European defense union and is now finalizing a strategy to try to boost the industry.
But this will require much more than recycled money from other items.
Ukraine, at this critical point, also faces enormous challenges at home.
The failed spring and summer counteroffensive has left its troops exhausted and decimated by casualties, who, according to war analysts, need urgent replacement and the possibility of rotations.
The Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian Parliament, has been debating since December a mobilization bill that, in its initial version, provided for the recruitment of 500,000 new soldiers, a measure that, in a population exhausted after two years of war, has been received with a rejection that contrasts with the waves of volunteers who intended to enlist when the invasion occurred.
Zelensky has also dismissed Valeri Zaluzhni, one of the most valued military figures, and has appointed a new commander in chief of the Armed Forces, Oleksander Sirski.
Some sectors also demand that elections be called, something impossible while martial law is declared.
In the commemoration of the two years of war and surrounded by leaders of the European Union, the G-7 and NATO, Zelensky has summarized the objective for this year and has stressed that he is not willing to give up the sovereignty that Putin wants to take away from them. : “Any normal person wants the war to end, but none of us will allow our country, Ukraine, to end.”
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