As of: February 25, 2024, 7:36 a.m
From: Foreign Policy
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The Ukrainian soldiers are exhausted, their relatives are demanding the right to leave the army.
But that doesn't seem feasible at the moment.
The war in Ukraine has been dragging on for two years, and there is no end in sight for the troops - they need a break.
The General Staff called for the mobilization of 500,000 more soldiers, but: Since the start of the war, the number of volunteers has declined and the military is dependent on conscriptions.
While relatives of soldiers have been demonstrating for their right to leave the army since October, Parliament has decided to impose sanctions on those who refuse to do military service.
This article is available for the first time in German - it was first published by
Foreign Policy
magazine on February 20, 2024 .
KYIV - Ukraine's top military and political leadership are arguing over how best to replenish the ranks of Ukraine's battered armed forces after nearly two years of fighting against Russia.
One question dominates this debate: whether and when soldiers on active duty can return home.
“The soldiers are physically and mentally exhausted,” said Myroslav Borysenko, a former history professor at the prestigious Kiev-Mohyla Academy who now serves as an artillery officer in a marine brigade in southern Ukraine.
Borysenko, 49, who volunteered for the military on the first day of the Russian invasion in February 2022, said in a conversation with Foreign Policy in Kiev that soldiers need to see a way out of the trenches.
Currently, says Borysenk, they are doing their job with no end in sight.
Breaks like the one Borysenko enjoyed are a rare luxury that some soldiers haven't experienced in more than a year.
Ukrainian soldiers during a visit to troops by President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Dnipropetrovsk region on February 4, 2024. © Ukrainian Presidential Office/Imago
At least 70,000 soldiers died
As Ukraine enters its third year of war, victory against Russia seems increasingly distant.
Last summer's failed counteroffensive and lack of Western aid have put the Ukrainian military on the defensive.
Although Ukrainian authorities do not release casualty figures, at least 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have likely died in the past two years, U.S. officials told The New York Times in August 2023.
The need to remove exhausted troops from combat operations is now encountering increasing manpower shortages.
Ukraine's armed forces need more fighters: The country's General Staff called for the mobilization of 500,000 additional soldiers to supplement the already 1.1 million-strong military, President Volodymyr Zelensky said at a press conference on December 19.
Zelensky sees “no point” in mobilization
Further mobilization is widely unpopular and has proven politically sensitive.
Late last year, this issue was at the heart of the first open disagreement between Zelensky and his then-military chief Valery Zaluzhny, as the Ukrainian president was unwilling to increase the pace of conscription.
“Personally, I don’t see any point in mobilizing half a million people now,” Zelensky told British broadcaster Channel 4 News in an interview published on January 20.
Zaluzhny, who had advocated for more troops, was dismissed on February 8.
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When the Russian invasion began, Ukraine abolished its existing conscription system, which required able-bodied men to serve for 12 to 18 months until the age of 27.
Conscription was introduced in two annual waves.
Now all able-bodied men aged 27 to 60 can be drafted into the Ukrainian military at any time, regardless of their previous military experience.
The men receive a notice to report to the local recruiting center, are then medically examined and sent to an assigned military unit for training.
Anyone over 18 can also opt for military service, as Borysenko did, but the number of volunteers has fallen sharply since the early months of the war.
It has become impossible to sustain the war effort without a draft.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyj is discussing further action in the Ukraine war with the EU foreign ministers.
© IMAGO
Ukrainian parliament lowers minimum age for conscription
Since late last year, Ukraine's parliament has been embroiled in heated debates over planned sweeping changes to the country's mobilization system.
An initial bill submitted to parliament on December 25 was withdrawn two weeks later after some provisions - including sanctions against conscientious objectors that would have banned them from driving a car or buying a house - were met with widespread criticism.
A second bill passed its first reading on February 7, but again there was debate over some provisions, including electronic delivery of subpoenas and the ability for the state to freeze the bank accounts of conscientious objectors.
The new law would also lower the enlistment age from 27 to 25 and give more powers to recruiting bodies.
Demobilization and mobilization are closely related
“That’s the paradox of the situation,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, a Kyiv-based political analyst.
“The majority of Ukrainians are patriotic, but many believe that the military should be in charge of fighting and that civilians will simply support them,” he told Foreign Policy.
“And of course,” he added, “people are afraid.”
The lack of a demobilization process makes mobilization even more difficult.
Borys Chmilewskiy from the Mobilization Process Improvement Team at the Ministry of Defense
The competing needs of recruiting more soldiers while providing rest to exhausted soldiers are closely linked.
“The lack of a demobilization process makes mobilization even more difficult,” said Borys Chmilewskiy, a former medic who was recently part of a team at the Ukrainian Defense Ministry that considered ways to improve the mobilization process.
“For people who haven't joined the military, the contract with the state right now is like, 'You're going to be recruited until you die or get seriously injured,' and of course that's not a good contract, so people don't want to enter.”
Foreign Policy Logo © ForeignPolicy.com
Protests for the right of soldiers to leave the army
Last fall, after Ukraine's unsuccessful counteroffensive in the summer, the question of whether and how troops should be demobilized became the focus of political discussion.
Starting in October 2023, small groups of soldiers' wives and mothers took to the streets in several Ukrainian cities to demand the right of soldiers to be demobilized after 18 months of service without the possibility of being re-enlisted for another year and a half.
The protests are ongoing and last took place on February 11 in more than a dozen Ukrainian cities, including Kiev.
“We know that it is not up to us to decide the duration, but there must be a period of service,” said Anastasia Chuvakina, a 22-year-old dance teacher from Odessa.
She told Foreign Policy that since the Russian invasion began, her husband has only been able to go home three times, for a handful of days each time.
The lack of a clear demobilization process has also strained military-civilian relations, and there is growing resentment among some soldiers at the front that some men in the rear guard are actively avoiding conscription.
Lack of ammunition and technological change at the front
“I was walking through the streets [in Kiev] and I saw all these fit men in civilian clothes, and I thought this guy would be great for the airborne troops, this guy would be perfect for the Marines,” said Borysenko, the artillery officer.
“We are tired and feel that society is not prepared to properly prepare for this war, that it does not understand that we have to be forced out of the field.
Borysenko said the fighting had become more grueling as frontline troops had to adapt to ammunition shortages and technological changes.
“A year ago you could still sleep at night on the front, but in recent months the enemy has received drones with thermal imaging and night vision devices.
And that changed everything,” he added.
Ukrainian tanks could soon run out of ammunition.
© AFP
But demobilization is a difficult task for the government when “the shortage [of manpower] is noticeable,” as Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov told the Financial Times in January.
The tens of thousands of soldiers who would leave the army if an official demobilization period were declared would have to be replaced by new troops - even as Kiev struggles to find willing people for the job.
“I believe that the bill introducing demobilization will be passed,” said political analyst Fesenko, “but I don’t think it will be applied in practice, at least not at the moment.”
Rotation of troops planned
The Ukrainian authorities, both military and political, have acknowledged the exhaustion of troops at the front but want to extend the breaks rather than start a demobilization process.
The first meeting between Zaluzhny's successor Oleksandr Syrskyi and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on February 9 "focused on [establishing] an effective system that allows for troop rotation and rest periods for units," a government press release said.
However, some believe that the reform should also have a long-term impact.
“I think we need to rebuild the entire system – mobilization, demobilization, guarantees and compensation for soldiers and veterans, everything,” Chmilewskiy said.
“Because if we want to survive, we have to build a system that can work for decades.”
To the author
Fabrice Deprez
is a French freelance journalist based in Kiev, Ukraine.
Twitter (X): @fabrice_deprez
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” on February 20, 2024 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.