The day for the inhabitants of Mexico City to decide who will be their new ruler is approaching.
The last photograph of the political race for the capital's head of government shows a double-digit advantage for Clara Brugada, standard bearer of the ruling coalition formed by Morena, the Green Party and the Labor Party.
The three-time mayor of Iztapalapa has 56% of the effective electoral preferences, 16 points more than her closest rival, the opposition Santiago Taboada, from the alliance made up of the PAN, PRI and PRD, who totals 40% of the preferences. , according to the most recent Enkoll survey for EL PAÍS.
The third candidate in dispute, Salomón Chertorivski, from Movimiento Ciudadano, appears in a distant third place, with 4%.
The effective preference counts citizens who declared an electoral preference, and excludes those who are undecided and those who said they did not have a favorite candidate.
Next Friday the electoral campaigns will officially begin and the candidates for the capital's Government will have around three months to try to move the vote in their favor.
However, the trend of preferences in the city has moved little.
Brugada started with an advantage over Taboada, twice mayor of Benito Juárez, a wealthy neighborhood, and has maintained it steadily up to this point in the electoral contest.
Enkoll published a measurement in January in which the former mayor of Iztapalapa accounted for 55% of the effective preferences and Taboada 42%, which shows that in one month the gap between first and second place widened, in favor of Brugada.
Taboada, 38, does not have it easy and faces a historic mission: trying to seize the government of the capital from the left, which has had consistent control in Mexico City for almost three decades.
The President of the Republic, the popular Andrés Manuel López Obrador, was head of Government, as was the presidential candidate of the ruling party, Claudia Sheinbaum, a leader in the polls, and Marcelo Ebrard, another icon of the leftist movement.
60% of those surveyed consider that the best thing for the city is for Morena to continue governing;
38% maintain that it is better for there to be a change in the Government.
Added to this is that 66% of the capital's residents approve of the work of President López Obrador, and 68% approve of Sheinbaum's management during her term, between 2018 and 2023.
The roots of the left in the capital is not the only one of Taboada's problems.
The former mayor must also shoulder the bad reputation of the PRI, the longest-running party in Mexico and the one most repudiated by the population, and which is now in alliance with the PAN, where the candidate is active.
The survey indicates that 43% of the capital's residents would never vote for the PRI in an election for head of government;
24% reject Morena, and 17% disapprove of the PAN.
On the contrary, 53% declared that they would vote for Morena, and 23% for the PAN.
When asked which candidate they would never vote for, 34% personally mentioned Taboada, against 25% who referred to Brugada.
Another factor that plays against Taboada is that his political group, Benito Juárez's PAN party, has been investigated by the capital's Prosecutor's Office for the corruption of the
real estate cartel
, a business scheme between officials and businessmen with constructions authorized by the mayor's office.
Taboada himself has been accused of diverting 10 million pesos during his administration as part of the same corrupt plot.
The candidate has pointed out in his defense that it is a political persecution of the ruling party, which governs the city.
Consequently, the public's perception of Taboada is polarized.
Between January and February, the number of people who have a good and very good opinion of the candidate grew three points (today it stands at 30%), but the portion of people who have a bad or very bad opinion of him also increased two points. (it has remained at 18%).
51% of those surveyed have a positive opinion of Brugada (it increased two points from January to February), and 16% have a negative perception (there was no change).
The residents of the capital were questioned about the city's problems, a question that necessarily subjects left-wing governments to evaluation.
An overwhelming 56% said that the main problem is insecurity.
The water shortage was in second place, with 13% of the mentions, at a time when the low levels of the Cutzamala System, the water network that supplies the capital and the metropolitan area, have triggered alerts from the authorities and of the population.
The number of people concerned about water has increased nine points since January, in line with the worsening of the shortage.
6% of respondents mentioned economic problems, including unemployment, low wages and rising product prices.
Insecurity and violence have been one of the main debts of the Morena governments at the federal and local level.
It is true that, during Sheinbaum's administration as president, the numbers of high-impact crimes were reduced, largely because the capital's police force is the largest and best prepared in the country, partly due to the work of Omar García Harfuch, former Secretary of Security, and coordination between local authorities and federal forces.
Taboada has taken advantage of the capital residents' desire for protection and has campaigned with that flag in the popular neighborhoods governed by Morena.
Brugada has recognized that this is a huge pending issue and has stated that mayors' offices must have “security powers” (currently this function is centralized in the city government).
88% of the capital's residents declared that it is somewhat probable and very likely that they will vote on June 2, a sign that the electoral process is exciting the electorate, and a light of hope against abstentionism.
With the powerful figure of López Obrador orbiting the electoral process, even without appearing on the ballot, Morena will go to an examination on his public policies at the federal and local level.
Citizens will decide if they opt for the continuity of this project, or if they once again give a vote of confidence to the PRI and the PAN and allow their return to power.
In the case of MC, poll projections put the orange party on the brink of disappearance from the Mexican electoral map.
Campaigns and debates between candidates are at hand.
Methodological sheet of the survey
806 effective interviews were carried out with men and women aged 18 years and over, with a valid voter ID card from their residence, distributed as follows by type of survey: 433 face-to-face at home and 373 by telephone.
The survey period was from February 16 to 19, 2024.
47% of those surveyed were men and 53% were women.
Sample selection
.
The sample is representative for Mexico City.
Precision and confidence.
The results have a margin of error around +/- 3.5% with a 95% confidence level in the main indicators.
The study refusal rate is 44.3% and the attempt rate is 61.3%.
Source: Enkoll
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