Emmanuel Macron meets European leaders in Paris to “make it clear to Putin that he will not win”

French President Emmanuel Macron and his European partners want to send a message to Russian Vladimir Putin: Europe, two years after the large-scale attack on Ukraine, is neither tired of war nor will it allow Russia to win it.

About twenty leaders and ministers of the European Union and NATO will try this Monday in Paris to counter Western pessimism about the course of the fighting, and commit to reinforcing aid to the attacked country.

The leaders present in Paris face growing doubts about their ability to supply on time and in the necessary quantities the weapons and ammunition that Ukraine requires to stop Russian advances.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to speak by video at the opening session at 5:00 p.m.

The German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez, are attending the conference, but the presence of the Italian Giorgia Meloni is not expected.

The United States, Canada and the United Kingdom—partners in NATO, but not in the EU—are represented by an undersecretary of state in the American case and by ministers in the other two.

The call, improvised by Macron in a hurry, responds to the urgency of the moment.

An immediate reason: the blockage of aid in the US Congress, which leaves the Europeans alone in aid to Ukraine.

And another in the medium term: the hypothesis that, with a victory for Donald Trump in the presidential elections in November, the leading world power will disengage from Europe.

“If we do not give ourselves the means to both do more and do better [for Ukraine], we run the risk of ceding too much space to the Russians,” said an advisor to the French president on the eve of the summit, who requested anonymity.

The objective of the summit is twofold, according to the advisor: “To signal very clearly to President Putin that, one, he will not win, and two, that we are not tired, that we are totally determined.”

The advisor added: “We are motivated and committed to the victory of Ukraine.”

The internal European context also counts, with the parliamentary elections in June in sight and the mobilizations of peasants.

One of the reasons for these protests – and more significant the closer they are to the EU border with Ukraine – is the rejection of competition from Ukrainian agricultural products and the fear of this country's entry into the EU.

France, Germany and the United Kingdom, in application of a decision at the G-7 last July, have signed security agreements with Ukraine this winter.

Although the agreements commit them to aid for the attacked country over the next 10 years, they do not replace the obligation of mutual defense that joining NATO would represent.

Accelerate ammunition production

One of the points that the leaders will address in Paris is how to accelerate the production of ammunition for Ukraine or its purchase from third countries.

“We must be able to deliver more shells,” says the aforementioned Elysée counselor.

“We will buy howitzers where they are available.”

In the background of the meeting there is a discussion about who provides more or less aid to Ukraine.

France, which appears in a worse position compared to Germany in the classification established by the Kiel Economic Institute, defends that not only the economic value of weapons must be quantified, but also their effectiveness in the theater of war.

Macron, in the months after the 2022 invasion, maintained a channel of dialogue with Putin, which he cut off more than a year ago.

And he irritated Ukraine and the EU's eastern flank partners by declaring that "humiliating Russia" should be avoided.

He has now completely abandoned this position, and the Paris conference can be interpreted as an attempt to assume European leadership in the war and before Putin.

For a few weeks now, Macron has been denouncing what he calls “a change in Russia's position,” “more aggressive, not simply towards Ukraine,” as the French president said 10 days ago during a press conference with Zelensky in Paris.

He was referring to a series of acts considered hostile, from disinformation campaigns to the possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in space.

Added to this is the death in custody of the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny and the murder in Spain of a Russian deserter.

“This change of position on the part of Russia,” the French president said, “demands a collective reaction.”

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