As of: February 26, 2024, 3:35 p.m
By: Bettina Menzel
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Press
Split
A Russian soldier near the front in February 2024 (symbolic image).
© Imago/Stanislav Krasilnikov/SNA
In defending itself against the Russian attack, Ukraine is on the defensive - and is now apparently changing its tactics.
How the war in Ukraine continues also depends on Western arms deliveries.
Kiev – Ukraine has recently found itself on the defensive at the front.
The shortage of ammunition due to the hesitant arms deliveries from the West is becoming increasingly noticeable.
Apparently Kiev is now changing its strategy - also with regard to the weapons required.
Ukraine from the initiative to the defensive: The consequences of the lack of ammunition at the front
Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj replaced his army chief during the Ukraine war: Instead of Valeriy Saluschny, Oleksandr Syrsky is now at the head of the military.
There are changes not only on a personnel level, but also on a tactical level: after more than a year of deadlocked fighting, Moscow is now going on the offensive again, especially in eastern Ukraine.
With the capture of the city of Avdiivka, Moscow also achieved a symbolic victory - with high human losses.
The initiative in the defensive fight against Russia currently no longer lies with Kiev's troops.
The reason is a lack of ammunition, anti-aircraft defense and long-range weapons.
The EU has not even been able to fulfill its promise to deliver a million bullets to Ukraine by March: so far only 300,000 have arrived in Kiev.
The USA has so far supplied the attacked country with two million 155 mm artillery shells, but the budget dispute and the resulting halt in military aid are causing Ukraine's supplies to shrink.
There are fears that support from the West, which Kiev depends on in its defensive battle, is dwindling.
The changes on the front are apparently also reflected in Ukraine's arms list.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Army Chief Syrsky and US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin discussed details of the equipment in a telephone conversation last Tuesday (February 20).
Kiev still wants air defense systems, but instead of fighter jets and tanks, drones are now at the top of the list, followed by electronic warfare systems, an insider said, according to the US newspaper
Politico
.
However, the information could not be independently verified.
Drones have recently become increasingly important in Ukraine's defense campaign.
Experts: This could continue in 2024
The Kremlin has long since switched to a war economy and boosted arms production in the country.
Last year, Moscow is estimated to have tripled the production of artillery ammunition, according to a discussion paper from Estonia's Defense Ministry.
Russia not only has more ammunition, but with a population three times as large, potentially more fighters - even if Russian President Vladimir Putin is still reluctant to initiate a general mobilization.
“There is no prospect of negotiations to end the war in 2024, nor can either side achieve a decisive victory,” said Putin expert Angela Stent.
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There is no prospect of negotiations to end the war in 2024, nor can either side win a decisive victory.
Angela Stent, Russia expert
The USA therefore remains of central importance.
If Congress did not approve continued support for Ukraine, “prospects for Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia in 2024 would be significantly worse,” the expert continued.
Former general and commander of US land forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, has a more positive view of Ukraine's current defense: “This war has been going on for ten years now, Russia had all the advantages, and after ten years they only hold 18 percent of Ukraine occupied,” Hodges said.
“They have lost half a million soldiers, the Black Sea Fleet is becoming weaker by the day, and the Air Force is unable to achieve air superiority.”
The promised F-16 fighter jets would arrive soon.
The USA could possibly send more Atacms missiles and the pressure on Germany to deliver Taurus cruise missiles is increasing.
“What we need,” said Hodges, “is a clear commitment from Western leaders [...] that they will provide it with the weapons it needs to actually win the war.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr On the second anniversary of the Russian attack, Zelensky remained confident despite the recent setbacks.
“We will win,” he said last Saturday (February 24) at a memorial event near Kiev.