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Why Russia's Black Sea War Plan Failed

2024-02-26T09:34:02.053Z

Highlights: Ukrainian naval operations in the Black Sea may even be the “most successful aspect of the counteroffensive” Russia lost 20 percent of its Black Sea fleet in four months in the Ukraine war. Moscow wants to use a “defensive stance [...] to weaken Ukraine’s unconventional approach to naval warfare” Ukraine must continue to function as an economy; the country is one of the largest grain exporters in the world. Russia is still able to attack Ukraine with ships in the relatively safe eastern Black Sea.



As of: February 26, 2024, 10:21 a.m

By: Bettina Menzel

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Russian warships are in the port of Sevastopol.

(Archive image) © Ulf Mauder/dpa

The military situation in Ukraine is tense.

However, their determination remains unbroken – and their tactics in the Black Sea are proving successful.

This also has an impact on the economy.

Moscow – Kiev's troops are coming under increasing pressure in the Ukraine war.

The West's hesitant arms deliveries are reflected in the lack of ammunition on the battlefield.

However, Ukraine continues to achieve success in deep battles, for example against the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

From the perspective of some military experts, Ukrainian naval operations in the Black Sea may even be the “most successful aspect of the counteroffensive.”

Russia lost 20 percent of its Black Sea fleet in four months in the Ukraine war

After the Russian attack on Ukraine over two years ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he wanted to retake the peninsula on the Black Sea.

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 in violation of international law.

Even without a conventional navy, Ukraine repeatedly manages to deliver decisive strikes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Shortly after the start of the war, Kiev's troops sank the Russian warship "Moskva", most recently the "Caesar Kunikov".



Over the course of the war, Moscow lost a total of 20 naval ships and submarines (as of February 26, 2024), according to the Oryx database.

This would equate to losses equivalent to 20 percent of the Black Sea Fleet within four months, British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said last December.

Ukrainian naval operations in the Black Sea “most successful aspect of the counteroffensive”

In February of this year, Kiev itself stated that it had “significantly hampered, if not paralyzed” Russian naval operations.

Crucial here: Ukrainian sea drones.

Operations with unmanned watercraft are “increasingly becoming an important part of modern naval warfare” and can be “used against the weak points of Russian naval supply routes,” according to an intelligence report from the British Ministry of Defense last August.

According to a recent British assessment last Sunday (February 25), Ukraine has “raised the Russian threat perception to a new level through combined attacks on land and at sea, forcing Black Sea Fleet units to relocate their main areas of operations to the eastern Black Sea. Retired NATO general Ben Hodges summed it up in an interview with

Newsweek

: "I think the efforts to drive the [Black Sea Fleet] out of Crimea and the western Black Sea were the most successful aspect of the counteroffensive." Last September Ukrainian special forces also recaptured an important oil and gas platform in the Black Sea.

Ukraine with “unconventional approach” in the Black Sea

Over the course of the war, the Ukrainian army repeatedly demonstrated its ingenuity - whether with 3D-printed bombs or special tricks to detect mines.

Although Ukraine does not have a traditional navy, it is able to carry out successful strikes using unconventional means, the British Ministry of Defense said in its report on Sunday.

In the Black Sea, Ukraine is having ongoing success that is forcing the Russian Black Sea Fleet to move backwards, according to the intelligence report.

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Russia is still able to attack Ukraine with ships in the relatively safe eastern Black Sea.

Moscow wants to use a “defensive stance [...] to weaken Ukraine’s unconventional approach to naval warfare.”

But that “doesn’t work as intended”.

In mid-February, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also spoke of a “great success” for the Ukrainian armed forces in the Black Sea.

Ukraine inflicted “heavy losses” on the Russian Navy there, Stoltenberg said.

Ukraine's tactics in the Black Sea also secure important grain exports

Even and especially in times of war, Ukraine must continue to function as an economy; the country is one of the largest grain exporters in the world.

With Turkey's mediation, there was an agreement with Moscow from July 2022 to July 2023 that enabled the export of grain across the Black Sea.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not extend the agreement, as a result of which there were fears of a global food crisis.

Since Moscow's withdrawal, the Russian military has also increasingly attacked Ukrainian port infrastructure and grain warehouses.

But Ukraine managed to establish a military security corridor.

According to Ukrainian information, 20 tons of cargo were exported across the Black Sea within six months, 70 percent of which were agricultural products.

In January, the monthly pre-war level for total export volumes by sea was reached, it was said.

The British Ministry of Defense also confirmed this in its current report.

According to the analysis, the trading volume would return to pre-war levels.

It continued: “At a strategic level, Ukraine’s approach has deprived Russia of the ability to interfere in its sea routes.”

In December, Great Britain announced that it would provide Ukraine with two mine clearing ships.

The danger from sea mines has recently increased significantly.

However, the situation at the front remains difficult.

“The operational environment is extremely complex and stressful,” said the new Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyj recently after a joint visit to the troops with Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

“The Russian occupiers continue to increase their efforts and have a numerical advantage in personnel,” he added.

Ukraine recently complained about a lack of artillery ammunition, anti-aircraft defenses and long-range weapons. 

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2024-02-26

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