After almost five months of war, a lull could be looming in the Middle East.
US President Joe Biden said on Monday that Israel was ready to cease its military operations in Gaza during Ramadan, to allow the release of all the hostages still in the hands of Hamas.
Behind the scenes, the negotiations launched several weeks ago are continuing under the leadership of the United States, but also of Egypt and Qatar, while the Israeli offensive launched in retaliation for the deadly attack of October 7 is approaching 30 000 dead in the Palestinian enclave, according to the Islamist group's Ministry of Health (the toll of which we cannot confirm).
But both camps still appear reluctant to put a deal in place.
Washington's hopes
Asked Monday on the American television channel NBC, Joe Biden was optimistic about a possible truce.
“Ramadan is coming and there was an agreement from the Israelis that they would not engage in operations during Ramadan, in order to give us time to get all the hostages out” still there, he said. asserted.
According to Israel, 130 hostages are still being held by Hamas in Gaza, 31 of whom are believed to have died, after the release of 105 hostages and 240 Palestinians detained by the Jewish state during a previous truce at the end of November, the only one that took place since the start of the conflict.
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Gaza: Biden says Israel would cease 'operations' during Ramadan as part of truce
The mediators hope to obtain a break in the fighting before the start of Ramadan, the holy month of fasting for Muslims, which is due to begin this year on March 10 or 11.
Until then, both camps had refused any compromise: Hamas has been demanding for weeks a complete ceasefire before any agreement on the release of the hostages, while Israel for its part refuses that a truce marks the end of the fighting, vowing to completely eliminate the Islamist organization.
Now, the blockages seem to be gradually lifting.
“I am hopeful that by next Monday, we will have a ceasefire,” Joe Biden also declared Monday, before emphasizing, however, that “it is not done yet.”
Negotiations accelerate
In any case, the mediators seem to be working hard to ensure that the negotiations succeed.
Egyptian, Qatari and American representatives, as well as Israel and Hamas, resumed talks on Sunday in Doha which “will be followed by meetings in Cairo”, according to a television close to Egyptian intelligence, AlQahera News.
These discussions, according to the channel, “follow up on what was discussed in Paris”, where the head of Mossad, the Israeli foreign intelligence service, David Barnea, visited on Friday.
At the end of this Parisian meeting, "common ground" on the "contours" of a possible agreement relating to the release of the hostages and "a temporary ceasefire" was found, said Sunday the White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan.
Also read: Hamas hostages, humanitarian aid in Gaza… Why the Emir of Qatar is received in majesty in Paris
Discussions continue in the French capital at the start of the week, with the arrival this Tuesday of the Emir of Qatar, a country which has been at the heart of the negotiations since the start of the conflict.
Tamim ben Hamad Al-Thani is due to have dinner this evening with Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée, according to our information.
According to Qatar's official news agency, the emir has just met Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Doha and discussed with him efforts "aimed at reaching an immediate ceasefire agreement and permanent ".
Prisoner exchanges proposed
After the Paris meeting, Hamas received a proposal for a 40-day ceasefire, according to Reuters, which cites a source familiar with the progress of the negotiations.
It provides for the release of 40 hostages, namely women, children and young people under 19, people over 50 and the sick, in exchange for the release of 400 Palestinian prisoners by Israel.
This pause in the fighting would also allow the gradual return of all civilians displaced in the north of the Gaza Strip, except men of military age.
Israeli aerial reconnaissance should also be interrupted for up to eight hours a day.
This truce could also allow the entry of 500 trucks per day of humanitarian aid and the rehabilitation of devastated hospitals and bakeries, an emergency for the Gazan population deprived of care and threatened by famine.
Ultimately, Israel should reposition its forces away from major population centers in the Palestinian enclave.
Both camps still far from convinced
On the Israeli side, an official told the Ynet news site that “the trend is positive,” on condition of anonymity.
But recent statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could dampen hopes.
In particular, he is maintaining his plan for a ground offensive on the overpopulated town of Rafah, in the south of Gaza, where nearly a million and a half Palestinians are refugees according to the UN.
Despite the concerns of the international community, he assured that this operation targeting the “last bastion” of Hamas would allow a “total victory” over the organization in “a few weeks”.
And a truce would only “delay” this offensive, he stressed on Sunday, affirming that civilians could be evacuated “north of Rafah”, outside the war zones, but without giving details of these evacuations.
For its part, Hamas has not yet officially commented on the truce proposal, but according to Reuters, an official has already declared that the remarks of American President Joe Biden were "premature" and that it remained still “significant gaps to fill” before realizing such perspectives.