As of: February 27, 2024, 10:16 a.m
By: Florian Naumann
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An analysis by IPPEN.MEDIA shows: The right-wing populists are flying high in Europe.
Germany stands out, but doesn't provide the most drastic numbers.
Munich/Berlin – Is Europe in the middle of a shift to the right in the year of the European elections?
This seems to be the case, especially in the German-speaking world.
And a comparison of current surveys from across the EU with the previous national parliamentary elections supports the impression - not everywhere, but in many places.
An analysis by
IPPEN.MEDIA
shows: It's not just the AfD and FPÖ that have recently made significant gains in Sunday issues.
From Portugal to France to Romania, right-wing populist parties are performing well above their last national election results.
Albeit at sometimes very different overall levels.
This tendency can be illustrated with the help of maps and tables.
There are apparently hardly any purely geographical focal points.
There are other backgrounds, very general and very specific.
Basically, the explanation lies in “the changing nature of societies,” said Berlin party and protest researcher Endre Borbáth
IPPEN.MEDIA
.
How strong right-wing extremists actually become depends on a “variety of factors”.
At the same time, Borbáth warned of very real dangers for the European unification process - and of the thesis that the popularity of right-wing populist parties could be evaporated through government participation.
Right-wing populists are on the rise ahead of the 2024 European elections – not only the AfD and FPÖ are making strong gains
A few countries stand out from the amount of data – including
Germany
and
Austria
.
In the Federal Republic of Germany, the AfD has almost doubled its poll numbers compared to the 2021 federal election, even if the polls' highs recently came to an end.
In Austria, the FPÖ has made similar gains: from 16.2 percent in the 2019 National Council elections to around 27 percent in the surveys in February 2024. However, these are neither the largest growth rates in the EU nor the highest absolute values for right-wing populist parties.
Right-wing populists and extremists have recorded double-digit
increases
since the most recent parliamentary elections in Austria (FPÖ, + 10.8 percentage points) and
France
(Rassemblement National and Reconquete, + 10.1), among others.
The AfD has only recently fallen away somewhat;
Until then, Germany, of all places, was far ahead in the right-wing populist poll rally.
But
there are also double-digit gains for the right in
Romania
(AUR) and
Cyprus (ELAM).
There is an election in Romania in 2024.
In
Portugal
, the hard-right Chega!
more than doubled in the early elections in March.
country |
Right-wing pop. parties* |
Latest election results |
Opinion poll |
|---|---|---|---|
Romania |
AUR |
9.1% (2020) |
+ 11.9 |
Portugal |
Chega! |
7.4% (2022) |
+ 11.6 |
Austria |
FPÖ |
16.2% (2019) |
+ 10.8 |
Cyprus |
ELAM |
6.8% (2021) |
+ 10.2 |
France |
RN, Reconquete |
22.9% (2022) |
+ 10.1 |
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*Party selection according to “PopuList” (see box). The highest increases are given in absolute numbers in percentage points.
Right-wing populists and extremists dominate in Hungary - high levels also in Poland, Belgium and Italy
The
highest overall share of poll votes
for right-wing populist and extremist parties is still in
Hungary
: 55.5 percent in a January survey went to Viktor Orbán's Fidesz, their extreme coalition partner Mi Hazánk and - who were still represented in the opposition alliance in the last elections - not less right-wing extremist Jobbik.
The long-standing EU problem child
Poland
is only in “fourth place” with 36 percent in the survey for PiS and the right-wing extremist Konfederaczja.
However, there are also some extremely high values in Western and Southern Europe.
In
Belgium 's
Flanders
region,
the radical right-wing party Vlaams Belang (VB) and the Flemish nationalist N-VA are ranked at 47 percent in the polls a few months before the 2024 parliamentary election - although the balance of power has shifted from the more moderate N-VA since the 2019 election has shifted to the extreme VB.
In the southern part of Wallonia, however, right-wing populists hardly play a role.
In the complex Belgian electoral system, regionally separate surveys are collected.
In the end, according to projections, the VB and N-VA could receive a good 30 percent of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
In the year of the European elections, they are spreading concern: Giorgia Meloni, Geert Wilders, Viktor Orbán, Jaroslaw Kaczynski (from left) and their parties.
© Montage: dpa/picture-alliance/Imago/Marco Provvisionato/IPA/ABACAPRESS/Remko de Waal/Marton Monus/ZUMA/Krzysztof Zatycki/fn
In the neighboring country
of the Netherlands,
the struggle for a government majority has apparently helped the right-wing populists around Geert Wilders.
A poll there in January showed 35 percent for four parties.
Armin Laschet (CDU) recently warned at FR.de
from
IPPEN.MEDIA
that the election result (which was still somewhat lower at the time) had already shown a dangerous combination between right-wing extremists and radical Islamists
.
In
Italy
, Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia and Matteo Salvini's Lega recently reached around 38 percent.
This is also an increase compared to the 2020 election results - albeit a loss compared to survey data from the end of 2023. Despite government participation.
Or just because of that?
Country/part of the country |
Right-wing pop. parties* |
Current survey value |
|---|---|---|
Hungary |
Fidesz, Mi Hazank, Jobbik |
55% |
Flanders* |
N-VA, Vlaams Belang |
47% |
Italy |
Fratelli, Lega |
38% |
Poland |
PiS, Konfederacja |
36% |
Netherlands |
PVV, BBB, FvD, JA21 |
35% |
*Belgian region – no national survey data available.
Right-wing populists in government?
No remedy for gains
The thesis that participation in government would harm right-wing extremist parties is “very difficult to support,” says Borbáth.
Some parties have used their government position to achieve “political successes” in line with their programs: “Think, for example, of the judicial reforms in Poland, the anti-LGBTQI laws in Italy or Hungary.” It is important whether the parties are leading coalition partners, as in Italy or Hungary - or whether there are “other government partners who weaken the right-wing extremist influence,” such as in the previous legislature with the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition in Austria.
There, however, the FPÖ also stumbled upon home-made scandals.
The numbers collected could nevertheless underline Borbáth's thesis: for example, the rising poll numbers from Italy, where Forza Italia - which is not entirely free of populism anyway - hardly acts as a slowing factor.
In Hungary, Orbán and Co. made gains, at least in the last election.
In
Finland,
on the other hand, the “True Finns” are no longer on the rise as junior partners.
However, their stable survey results could still be surprising given the numerous right-wing extremist scandals.
Right-wing populism – definition and database
Which parties are right-wing populist and which are right-wing extremist?
It is difficult to give a simple answer across EU countries.
The basis of the present visualizations and comparisons is therefore the most recent “PopuList” from September 2023. In this project, populism researchers from several European universities have classified parties in the EU states in the categories “extreme left”, “extreme-left populist”, “populist” since 1989. , “extreme-right populist” and “extreme-right”.
The maps and evaluations include parties in the “extreme-right populist” and “extreme-right” categories, including “borderline cases”.
A theoretical basis for this classification is the definition of right-wing populism by the Dutchman Cas Mudde.
Political scientist Endre Borbáth explains the common classification as follows: Right-wing populist parties combined nativism and populism.
“Nativism holds that states should be inhabited exclusively by members of the native group ('the nation') and that non-native people and ideas pose a fundamental threat to the homogeneous nation-state.
Populism combines an appeal to the people (often very open) with anti-elitism.”
Nevertheless, not all right-wing populist parties are also right-wing extremist.
Right-wing extremists also rejected the political system and often questioned democracy.
For the survey data,
IPPEN.MEDIA
evaluated current media reports from EU countries and other countries such as Great Britain, Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.
Most of the numbers come from the months of January and February.
Where there were no valid surveys during this period, the most current data from 2023 was used.
No survey data was yet available for Switzerland and Luxembourg following the recent elections.
Right-wing populism in the EU: Major parties “normalize” “right-wing extremist challengers”
The search for the reasons for the popularity observed in many places seems somewhat complex.
But some can be named.
“The established parties are having difficulty making programmatic decisions in order to respond to the challenges of mass immigration, European integration and climate change,” says Borbáth.
In doing so, they left a “representation gap in the party system,” says the scientist from the Free University of Berlin.
Which of the “challenger parties” survive also depends on the reaction of the established parties.
“Traditionally there was a cordon sanitaire, an isolation in the party system and especially when forming a government,” says Borbáth.
“Today, this stigma is weakening in many countries, and by taking up their arguments, some mainstream parties end up normalizing the program of the far-right challengers.”
The scientist's warning: "This will lead to a further strengthening of right-wing extremist parties."
The Nordic countries and the Baltics are also not immune.
In
Sweden
,
Norway
,
Denmark
and
Finland
, more or less right-wing populist parliamentary parties cumulatively have at least just under 15 percent.
The frontrunner is the Sverigedemokrater as “tolerators” of the conservative government in Stockholm with 22.5 percent.
In
Estonia,
the partly right-wing extremist EKRE has just under 19 percent, in
Latvia
the National Alliance has around 13 percent.
No hard right in three smaller countries - survey data is missing from Switzerland
Only
Lithuania
bucks the trend.
The country is decidedly moderate - but with the LVŽS it has a populist ex-government party that appears to be “left-wing”.
Another bright spot on the data map is Slovakia.
Here too, caution is advised: Robert Fico's Smer is actually the strongest force there with 22.9 percent in the most recent election.
According to the makers of “PopuList”, Smer represents “nationalist elements” and is also clearly populist-minded – with a more pro-European course but not a classic right-wing populist force.
There are other exceptions: neither in
Iceland
nor in
Ireland
are right-wing populists or extremists represented in the parliaments.
However, other gray areas on the map are also misleading: there are no new surveys from Switzerland and Luxembourg after the recent elections.
Switzerland would probably be colored relatively deep blue if data were available: the right-wing populist SVP is the strongest force in the National Council there with 27.9 percent.
But why the regional differences?
Possible factors include the “history of right-wing extremist mobilization,” the “existence of right-wing extremist ‘civil society’ movements” or the “way in which the established parties integrate right-wing extremist issues,” explains Borbáth.
He points to the example of Romania: There, social and liberal democrats have long “appealed to voters with right-wing extremist attitudes”.
Since the grand coalition of both parties, the right-wing extremist AUR has achieved high poll numbers.
The Corona crisis has increased this dynamic even further.
Europe is facing a right-wing populism problem: a special case of “mainstreamization” in the former Yugoslavia
A parliamentary election is also due in 2024 in the EU country
Croatia
.
The DP represented on the “PopuList” is polled at well below ten percent.
But the situation in the states of the former Yugoslavia is somewhat more complex, as the Viennese political scientist Vedran Džihić explains
to IPPEN.MEDIA
.
“The development in southeastern Europe defies the definition commonly used in the West,” he says.
Rather, there are large (government) parties that are “mainstreaming” right-wing populist ideas.
These included Alexandar Vučić's SNS in
Serbia
or the SNSD of the Bosnian Serbs around Milorad Dodik in
Bosnia-Herzegovina
.
Or HDZ in Croatia.
President Andrej Plenković is “not a right-wing populist,” Džihić makes clear.
The HDZ, however, had already tried to “incorporate” the right-wing fringe under founder Franjo Tudjman – the party represented partly nationalist and revisionist positions and positioned itself “against Islam, foreigners and Serbs”.
A backward-looking image of women is also part of the party mainstream.
The HDZ was recently at a good 28 percent.
And Vučić's SNS won the Serbian election in December, albeit amid allegations of fraud.
The EU could therefore be facing a massive problem.
Also, but not only, in the European elections.
And not just in their member states, but also in some candidate countries.
This is especially true if one understands European integration not only as increased cooperation, but also as the creation of federal political institutions, emphasizes Borbáth.
“This view is clearly rejected by all right-wing populist parties.”
Text: Florian Naumann / Graphics and co-conception: Nils Tillmann