By Andrea Mitchell, Kelly O'Donnell, Carol E. Lee, Monica Alba and Yuliya Talmazan —
NBC News
If the Kremlin killed Alexei Navalny, why now?
The Russian opposition leader's allies appear to have an answer to this question: They allege President Vladimir Putin had the imprisoned dissident killed to thwart an imminent prisoner exchange that would have freed him and two Americans.
Five sources told NBC News that a deal to free Navalny was in the works, although the exchange was not believed to be imminent when his death was announced on February 16.
Two of them, who were not authorized to speak publicly, indicated that the agreement would have included
journalist Evan Gershkovich and former Marine Paul Whelan
.
Two U.S. officials noted that the United States had not directly discussed the idea with Russia.
One of them claimed that Putin might have learned that discussions were taking place between American and German officials.
Russian opponent Alexei Navalny in a file image. Pavel Golovkin / AP
The news of the negotiation comes at a time of maximum intrigue surrounding the death of Navalny, whose funeral generates a new point of tension, after his relatives reported on Tuesday that
They had been unable to find a place in Russia
willing to welcome him.
The prisoners included in the alleged exchange agreement
In a video message released Monday, a close ally of Navalny alleged that Putin had the Russian opponent killed in prison because he was about to be released with two unidentified American citizens in exchange for Vadim Krasikov, a Russian hitman imprisoned for life. in Germany for the brazen murder of a former Chechen militant.
“Alexei Navalny could have been right now, today, here,” Maria Pevchikh said of the alleged exchange.
“I don't mean it in figurative language.
“This could and should have happened.”
[Russian authorities hand over Alexei Navalny's body to his mother]
He said that the night before Navalny's death he had been told that talks to free him were in their final phase.
But Putin decided that he did not want to go ahead with the deal out of personal “hatred” for the politician, he added.
Pevchikh did not provide evidence to support his version.
A Western official assured NBC News that no formal offer had been made, but that early talks were underway about a swap that included Navalny and American citizens.
OR
A Western diplomat also claimed that, after two years of talks, Germany had agreed to a swap in which
Navalny would be released, as well as Gershkovich and Whelan, in exchange for Krasikov.
The agreement began to be forged before German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Washington on February 9, but it advanced even further during meetings at the White House between the German leader and President Joe Biden, according to the diplomat.
“It seemed that Navalny could be in the conversation, but no one was counting on it,” explained the Western diplomat.
“The timing was unclear.”
A source familiar with the talks told NBC News that progress had been made on an exchange deal that included Navalny and the Americans, but that it had not been fully finalized at the time of his death.
Krasikov is very precious to Putin, who has been trying to get him back for years.
The United States had tried to get Germany to release him in a trade for WNBA star Brittney Griner and Whelan, but Germany refused, the source noted.
Finally, the Biden Administration exchanged Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, imprisoned in the United States, for Griner.
But the Russians insisted that the exchange had to involve only two people, so Whelan was left waiting, according to the source.
The difference this time, the source said, was that Navalny had a connection to Germany — where he received treatment following a 2020 poisoning attempt that he blamed on the Russian government — and trading Krasikov for him could be justified to the German public.
The German government declined to comment on the alleged talks, and Russian spokesman Dmitri Peskov said Tuesday that he was not aware of any exchange agreement.
[They call for protests in Russia and several European countries over the death of Alexei Navalny]
Putin alluded to Krasikov in an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson earlier this month, when asked about the possibility of freeing Gershkovich.
Putin called Krasikov a “patriot,” without referring to him by name.
But some observers have raised doubts about Navalny's team's account that Putin scuttled a deal to free him.
It's unclear why the Russian leader would have agreed to a swap involving Navalny only to "kill him at the last moment to prevent this swap," said Sergey Radchenko, a historian and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
A funeral and a high point?
In the days after Navalny died in a remote penal colony north of the Arctic Circle, his family and allies were denied access to his body.
Her mother, Lyudmila, claimed that she was threatened that his body would not be returned unless she agreed to a secret funeral.
Navalny's body was finally returned on Saturday, and his spokesperson, Kira Yarmysh, suggested that attention would now turn to his funeral, as they searched for a location
for a "public farewell" later this week.
But on Tuesday, Yarmysh said they were having a hard time finding a place, with some places refusing because they are full or as soon as Navalny's name is mentioned.
“In one place they told us that funeral agencies were prohibited from working with us,” Yarmysh wrote in X, while he asked for suggestions on how to celebrate the event.
It is unclear what a funeral for the opposition leader might look like, as Russian authorities are carrying out a crackdown on dissent not seen since the Soviet era.
It is also unclear whether Navalny's widow, Yulia Navalnaya, will be able to return to Russia for the funeral following her direct accusation that Putin had killed him and her promise to continue his work.
Hundreds of people were detained in the days after Navalny's death simply for laying flowers in his honor at memorials across Russia.
The editor of a Moscow weekly that published an article about Navalny's death with his smiling photo on the cover told Reuters that the edition was almost entirely confiscated.
Thousands of people may want to come out to say their final goodbyes to Navalny, threatening the kind of mass protest that Russian authorities have tried to eradicate.
Even a peaceful procession of thousands of people could create bad optics for the Russian Government, just a few weeks before a presidential election where Putin is guaranteed victory.
A close ally of Navalny on Tuesday encouraged Russians to heed the late activist's call to protest the election by showing up at the polls at noon on March 17.
“It doesn't matter what they're going to do — who they vote for or whether they mess up their ballots — the important thing is to get there and get noticed.
“This way they will fulfill Navalny's last wish,” declared Leonid Volkov.