The Latin American risk

This 2024 will, without a doubt, be a challenging year for the region.

More than one in four people will elect president in six countries: El Salvador (on February 4), Panama (May 5), Dominican Republic (May 19), Mexico (June 2), Uruguay (27 October) and Venezuela (still no date, but possibly at the end of the year).

If we add to these countries those that chose their heads of state in 2023 - Paraguay, Guatemala, Ecuador and Argentina - we are talking about 40% of the total population of the continent will have been called to vote.

The results of the elections in these two years have and will have a profound impact on the region, revealing great challenges.

Precisely, some of them are addressed in the latest

Political Risk Latin America 2024

report from the Center for International Studies of the Catholic University of Chile (CEIUC): citizen insecurity, corruption, democratic disaffection, liquid majorities, radicalization of social protest, VUCA context (acronym used to describe or reflect volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity), deterioration of the business climate, impact of new digital technologies and the consequences of climate change, are some of the aspects in which political, social and economics must influence, manage or transform.

In that sense, it is worth reviewing at least three aspects to observe in this election year;

coinciding, furthermore, with the United States presidential election.

In an electoral key

The report warns of a change in one of the clearest trends observed in recent times: the punishment of the ruling parties.

In South America, for example, in 12 of the last 14 elections, the opposition prevailed over the candidacy of the current government.

That is, only the Paraguayan ruling party, represented by the Colorado Party, was able to triumph between 2018 and 2023. This trend, as Carlos Malamud and Rogelio Núñez Castellano explain, may not continue in 2024 or, at least, it would not be the majority.

This hypothesis, for now, has been proven with the more than expected—and controversial—reelection of Nayib Bukele.

In an economic key

A central aspect on this continent, especially taking into account that – according to ECLAC – the economic activity of Latin America and the Caribbean continues to exhibit a low growth trajectory.

It is, perhaps, the most determining challenge when thinking about elections.

If in 2023 the Latin American economy increased only 2.2%, the growth forecast for 2024 is even lower: 1.9%.

However, the relationship between economic data and citizens' feelings is not always direct.

If the perception of the economy used to influence their political inclinations, today it is the political inclinations that determine how they perceive the economy.

In other words: growth data may not be felt in the first vital and daily square meter of voters.

Even more: citizens distrust the figures;

The values ​​transmitted by official statistical institutes lose meaning when personal experiences are the true thermometers of reality.

In a democratic key

Almost half of this decade has passed, it is increasingly evident that Latin America is going through very profound changes in democratic culture.

But, at the same time, with economies of low intensity and speed.

The recent examples of Chile, Brazil and Argentina demonstrate that the region's democracies are offering two options: deterioration as a form of democratic renewal or resilience as a way of survival.

The first of them is driven by the innovative agenda of a renewed and spirited right that, difficult to pigeonhole and frame, ranges from extreme right to neoliberal right of libertarian nature.

The cases of José Antonio Kast in Chile, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Javier Milei in Argentina prove this.

Their proposals have become tempting for broad sectors of society.

They are no longer just intense, noisy and mobilized minorities.

They have matured and become legitimized.

In effect, they have reinvented themselves.

To these examples, we could also add those of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador and, perhaps, in a short time, those of María Fernanda Cabal in Colombia and that of the mayor of Lima, Rafael López-Aliaga, in Peru.

The second, on the other hand, seems to encounter two problems: the inability to understand the depth of said changes and the lack of creativity to build an alternative proposal.

Democratic politics has lost the pedagogical capacity to explain its proposal and the easy ways out of authoritarianism, which have reduced politics to a

fast food

election , pose a complex political-electoral combat.

A priori devour us and create temptations.

But the dilemma could be even more serious: in addition to the difficulties in being able to defend oneself from the low blows of authoritarianism, the complexity of the attacks has been added.

Democracy is failing to generate an attractive and enriching alternative for that tired majority.

On the contrary, it has made democracy antiquated and, at times, obsolete.

Recovering its usefulness and powers can be the first big step in defeating those who feel authorized to openly question it.

Meanwhile, some timid hopeful data appears, contrary to recent research published on democratic trust.

The

Youth and Democratic Political Culture

chapter of the recent report

The Pulse of Democracy

, edited by Barómetro de las Americas, shows promising seeds.

In any case, the ability to incorporate new generations with their new skills and abilities will be increasingly central.

The speed at which these transformations are developing within the societies of the region is maximum.

And in this acceleration, democratic politics and economic and business leadership must be able to advance to respond to the growing—and logical—citizen dissatisfaction.

Otherwise, the consequences will also be unpredictable and unknown.

Democracy remains the best option, despite its languid and unsatisfactory reality.

This is how the AmericasBarometer report begins: “Investing in good governance and inclusive growth pays off.

While with the first the rule of law prevails, the second guarantees that people can satisfy their basic needs.”

The risks are clear; turning them into challenges is the task of democratic politics and its leadership.

Antoni Gutiérrez-Rubí

is a communications advisor.

@antonigr;

www.gutierrez-rubi.es 

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