3,996,189 votes
.
That is the exact difference that the country's
24 governors
made against
Javier Milei
in their provinces, if the local elections that consecrated them are compared with the first round of the presidential election.
The review and importance of the number are related to the fight of the moment.
Who is most legitimized in each district?
The governor or the President?
To find a winner to the debate, or actually to provide data and context to the discussion,
Clarín analyzed two major variables in detail
.
One, as explained, is
the votes in each province
.
The other,
the image that the President and the governors currently have in those 24 districts
.
And the conclusion, when the two tables are crossed, is that it is a
very even bid
in the public opinion.
With a plus/alert: even though some analysts and politicians continue to observe the libertarian as an urban media phenomenon of the AMBA, reality indicates the opposite.
His consecration is only explained by the fortress he built in the interior of the country
.
That is to say, it is a heavyweight fight in each province.
Almost 4 million votes less, but...
Although the President and his team usually toss around the figure of almost 56% of the runoff to assess his support base, the reality is that
Milei's hard core
is in principle much more related to what he got in the PASO and in the first lap.
In both cases she accounted for
30% of the total country
.
There were 8,034,990 votes in the general election against 12,001,179 that the governors totaled in similar but local elections. A difference in favor of the leaders close to 4 million votes.
If the percentages that Milei obtained in the
24 provinces in the first round
were compared , with a floor of 19.98% in CABA and a ceiling of 43.33% in San Luis, the average gives it 33.44%.
And
how did the governors do
in their general elections?
The average was much higher, even above 50% (50.96%).
There were peaks of 76.90% in Corrientes (Gustavo Valdés won in 2021) and only one (Claudio Vidal, in Santa Cruz) fell below 35 points.
Precisely Santa Cruz and Mendoza (from the radical Alfredo Cornejo) were the only two provinces in which Milei obtained more votes and a higher percentage than the governors.
In
Chubut (by Ignacio Torres)
and
Neuquén (by Rolando Figueroa)
, two of the districts most at odds with the President, Milei obtained more votes but reached lower percentages, because there was greater attendance in the national elections.
Although it is true that it would not be appropriate to compare runoff numbers with those of a general election, in Milei's favor it is also true that
Bullrich's voters today are very close to the libertarian
and contribute to his legitimacy in each province.
"That is very important and very interesting. And it explains why Milei is in no hurry to make an alliance with the PRO. Why is he going to advance if he already has the support of those hard voters? Even Patricia Bullrich, who is the incumbent of the party, is on her side. Later we will have to see how she explains that situation, but Milei already has that support," political scientist Lucas Romero, head of the consulting firm Synopsis and a widely listened to analyst in the red circle, tells Clarín.
In the data from his pollster, while Milei's voters in the first round approve of the libertarian's management by 90%,
Bullrich's voters exceed 80%
.
The image data, very even
This alleged parity that Milei would achieve if part of Bullrich's votes in each province were added is verified with a more ethereal but also more current measurement.
It is the one that evaluates the
image of the President and the governors in each province
.
The overall balance is a tie: Milei surpasses the local president in 12 districts and loses in the other 12. The average percentage of positive image of the libertarian is 53.9% against 54.3% of the governors. Boards.
These are data from
CB Consultora Opinión Pública
that
Clarín
advanced in two notes.
The first raised a strong alert for the President: although he continued with good numbers, it revealed a drop in his rating in the 24 districts.
The second showed the current ranking of the provincial leaders.
Are you going against your own audience?
Taking into account that Milei's strength in the elections was in the Interior, the question falls on its own:
if the President affects the provinces, is he not operating against his own public?
For a well-known analyst, it may be a sign of "
Milei's lack of political intelligence.
He seems very concerned about winning the discussions, rather than gaining political advantage. As if he still behaved as a panelist for Intratables and not as president."
The same pollster, in any case, opens the umbrella: "In the debate prior to the runoff we all saw how Massa slapped him, and then people voted for something else."
The discussion is settled.
Beyond the fact that the speech targets the "caste of governors" who do not want to cut "their privileges", if transportation in the Interior increases due to the reduction of national subsidies, will
the residents of those provinces blame Milei? or the governors?