Since the war in Gaza began last October, the prime minister of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) who resigned this Monday, Mohamed Shtayeh, responds with a metaphor when asked about the possibility of the PNA regaining control of Strip once Israel puts an end to Hamas, which has ruled it alone since 2007: “We will not return to Gaza aboard an F-16 or an Israeli military tank.”
There is no such risk, because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that he does not want the ANP managing the rubble of Gaza.
But Shtaye's resignation is the most significant step in the four and a half months of war for him to do so at the hands of the United States.
The decision – accepted by the president, Mahmud Abbas, who has asked him to continue serving – opens the door to the “day after” that Washington desires and is pressing for: that a reformed ANP with new faces regains international legitimacy. necessary to take care of the day to day.
“Revitalized,” as the president of the United States, Joe Biden, has said.
The announcement prepares the ground for the formation of a government of technocrats to replace the current one: sclerotized, discredited and structured by Fatah, the faction led by Abbas.
“It is the most substantial act of the day-after Gaza operation and has the tacit consent of Hamas,” Tahani Mustafa, Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group
think tank
, said by phone .
Mustafa recalls that Hamas “has been trying for years to free itself from governing Gaza,” something that has worn it down internally and has not reversed “its status as an international pariah,” which is why it has now raised its “bet” on unity, even at the price. of not having representation in the Executive, something that would stop the West.
Mohammed Mustafa has been sounding strong for the new prime minister for weeks.
It is, on the one hand, the type of option that Washington likes.
Director of the Palestine Investment Fund, he is a US-trained economist who has held important positions at the World Bank and maintains contact with official representatives of the country.
On the other, he is an acceptable figure for Hamas.
Although he is considered close to Abbas, he was deputy prime minister and head of Economy in the brief unity government formed in 2014 between the two factions and in charge of the reconstruction of Gaza after the Israeli offensive of that year, the harshest to date. .
“Intra-Palestinian consensus”
Shtaye himself made the path clear this Monday in his speech: “The next phase and its challenges will require new political and governmental agreements that take into account the reality that is emerging in Gaza, the dialogue of national unity and the urgent need for a consensus. intra-Palestinian based on broad participation, unity and the extension of the sovereignty of the Palestinian National Authority to the entire territory of Palestine.”
The horizon clashes with the plan for the day after presented last week by Netanyahu.
This consists of maintaining “unlimited freedom of action” military “throughout Gaza without time limit” and leaving “civil management and responsibility for public order as much as possible” in the hands of “local entities that are not affiliated with States and organizations.” that support terrorism or receive remuneration from them.”
That is, notables or respected Gazans who are willing to collaborate with the Israeli military authorities and have no relationship with Hamas or the ANP.
Israeli television channel 12 reported last week on an army pilot project in the Zeitun neighborhood of the capital Gaza to establish a kind of local government.
Military commanders met with community leaders to try to convince them to govern residents who have not fled to the south.
Netanyahu's plan also conditions reconstruction on the beginning of "a process of deradicalization" of the population and rejects the creation of a Palestinian state.
It also clashes with the mood of Israeli public opinion.
Only 11% support the return of the ANP to Gaza, according to a poll released last December by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
18% want annexation;
22%, military control;
18%, the deployment of an international force in the territory and 23%, a coalition of “moderate Arab States”.
PLO reform
The reform of the ANP runs parallel to another, that of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which has been talked about for years, but only now seems to be taken seriously.
It is the representation of the Palestinian people, but it does not include the winner of the last elections, Hamas, or other factions, such as the Islamic Jihad, so it has become irrelevant and obsolete.
In fact, all Palestinian factions have been invited to Moscow at the end of the month.
According to the Arabic-language newspaper
Asharq Al Awsat
, two issues will mainly be on the table: the formation of a technocratic government and the inclusion of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the PLO.
The discredit of the ANP, and specifically of Abbas, is such that the option promoted by Washington is deeply unpopular.
According to a survey published in December by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, 60% of those surveyed would like Hamas to continue leading Gaza after the war;
16%, a Government of national unity without the president;
7%, the ANP in its current state;
and 3% one or more Arab countries.
Only 3% chose the formula that is taking shape: a unity Executive with Abbas as president.
Analyst Mustafa foresees two more steps: a reform of the Basic Law (the equivalent of a Constitution) and the appointment of a vice president.
Hussein al-Sheikh, Abbas's right-hand man, leaves with many ballots.
He has risen meteorically since the 2020 Covid death of veteran chief negotiator Saeb Erekat.
He is secretary general and head of the negotiations department of the PLO.
But only 3% of Palestinians would like him as the next leader, according to a 2023 poll. Al Sheikh was precisely one of the two ANP leaders who traveled to Amman on Sunday to prepare Abbas's meeting with King Abdullah of Jordan. another US ally that is pressing to reform the ANP and regain control of Gaza.
The process is somewhat reminiscent of what the historic Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat experienced during the Second Intifada (2000-2005).
Israel and then-US President George W. Bush accused him of “supporting terrorism” and tried to force him out.
They did not succeed, but they did appoint a prime minister: the current president Abbas.
The idea now is to create a vice presidency to distribute the power held by an increasingly lonely and authoritarian Abbas, and to prepare his succession.
He is 88 years old, has heart problems and has been in power for 19 years without going to the polls.
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