By Joey Cappelletti —
The Associated Press
Joe Biden and Donald Trump easily won their respective parties' primaries in Michigan, but Tuesday's results showed both candidates have reason to worry as they try to win the swing state in November.
The thousands of 'uncommitted' votes - neither in favor of Democrats nor Republicans - cast in these primaries were the first indication of how the management of the war in Gaza could affect the president's re-election campaign.
Trump won by a wide margin, but the support for his rival Nikki Haley demonstrated once again that some Republican voters seem to have misgivings about wanting the former president to spend another four years in the White House.
A man walks to vote in the Michigan primary elections in Dearborn, Tuesday, February 27, 2024. Paul Sancya / AP
Biden and Trump are moving closer to securing their respective parties' nominations.
Michigan was the last major state in which primaries were held before Super Tuesday, and both contenders were very attentive to the signals that the results could offer in the face of the November general elections, in one of the remaining undecided or swing states. the country.
Biden has beaten lesser-known candidates in South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, where he won despite not having been on the ballot.
Tuesday's results show his position remains strong in Michigan, a state that Biden himself returned to Democrats in 2020.
Trump has swept the first five state races, including South Carolina, his rival Haley's home state.
He now heads into Super Tuesday, when 15 states and one territory hold primaries, as the big favorite.
Michigan was one of three so-called blue wall states, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that Trump won in 2016. He predicted a big victory in advance.
Only 16 of Michigan's 55 Republican presidential delegates will be determined by primary results, while the remainder will be allocated during a convention on March 2.
Trump's foreseeable dominance there, in which grassroots activists will play a key role, will decide the allocation of the other 39 delegates.
A “punishment” vote for Biden
Michigan has become the center of Democratic frustration over the White House's actions in the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
The state has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the country.
That anger came through loud and clear Tuesday, when some voters checked the 'uncommitted' box on their Democratic primary ballot.
Biden still won, but the result could be worrying in a state that he clinched by less than 3% of the vote in 2020 and that he likely
can't afford to lose
this year.
Organizers of the protest movement against the president had purposely kept expectations low, having only campaigned a few weeks ago.
The Listen to Michigan campaign, which organized the protest, said it hoped to get 10,000 votes.
[Trump wins the Republican primary in Michigan against Haley, bringing his proclamation as a presidential candidate closer]
When Barack Obama ran for reelection in 2012, the last time a sitting Democratic president sought reelection, the 'uncommitted' option received about 21,000 votes, or 11 percentage points.
'Uncommitted' vote totals would have to be between 20 and 30 percentage points for Democrats to worry about their impact in November, explained Richard Czuba, a pollster who has long followed Michigan politics.
“20% catches my attention.
“If it goes up to 25%, much more and if it goes up above 30%, I think it's a sign that Joe Biden has some pretty big issues at his core,” Czuba added.
Much of the 'uncommitted' vote was expected to come from the eastern part of the state, in communities such as Dearborn and Hamtramck, where Arab Americans make up almost half the population.
Biden won Dearborn by about 3-1 in 2020, and Hamtramck by a 5-1 margin.
Republicans who do not support Trump
Despite Trump's clear victory in Michigan, Haley saw significant support from the state's Republicans.
Some of his best results were in Oakland and Kent counties, where Democrats have been gaining ground in recent years,
contributing to their recent success across Michigan.
It also did better where the largest universities are located, in Washtenaw and Ingham counties.
Trump has dominated the primaries with the help of his base, but his strength among general election voters remains unclear.
The former president has visited Michigan regularly in the eight years since he became president, while Haley didn't start campaigning in the state until this weekend.
All three state-level Republican candidates Trump supported in the 2022 midterm elections were crushed by their Democratic counterparts.