As of: February 28, 2024, 6:31 a.m
By: Andreas Steppan
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According to experts, the number of viewing appointments to sell real estate in the district is increasing slightly again.
© dpa
The war in Ukraine, inflation and high interest rates caused real estate sales to decline noticeably last year.
Now experts see signs of a trend reversal.
Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen
– “The party is over”: This was the headline under which our newspaper summarized the situation on the real estate market in the district a year ago.
Today, the summary from local experts sounds a little more optimistic: “We have bottomed out,” says Martin Harbalik, head of real estate and insurance at Sparkasse Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen, for example.
Real estate market in the Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen district: There is still reluctance to build new buildings
Increased loan interest rates, inflation, general uncertainty: Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, there have been several factors that have shaken up the real estate market.
Trend: Fewer people found the courage or could afford to consider buying a house.
Experts in the district are now seeing the first signs of a trend reversal.
However, they differentiate.
According to Harbalik, property developers are still holding back when it comes to new buildings.
And when something is completed, the sales price is usually high because the developers have to factor in the increased construction costs.
In many cases, this does not match what prospective buyers can currently pay.
Against this background, marketing is “challenging”.
Not a single new apartment in Geretsried has been sold
“The property developers have been hit hard,” reports Peter Schneider, managing director of Schneider & Prell Immobilientreuhand AG and member of the district’s expert committee.
“Many have gone bankrupt because they could no longer manage their financing due to the increased interest rates.” When projects have been completed, they are “uncertain about the prices at which they can sell the properties.”
In the district, the number of new condominiums sold fell to a third from 2021 to 2023: from 223 to 78. In Geretsried, not a single new apartment was sold last year.
The experts report that quite a few interested parties would take a different approach.
“Demand is shifting toward inventory,” Harbalik said.
Because of the “many potential buyers,” prices for used houses are “at least stable, if not rising slightly.”
Decline in prices for houses in need of renovation
Things are somewhat different for properties that require a lot of renovation.
“Here we experienced a price decline of ten percent in 2023,” says Harbalik.
In his opinion, things won't go any further down, but they won't go up significantly either.
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Manfred Gasteiger, spokesman for the board of Raiffeisenbank in Oberland, speaks of price reductions of up to 15 percent last year - at least with regard to standard properties in less good locations.
“We continue to observe a high level of price stability for exclusive properties in good and very good locations.”
In the current situation, some prospective buyers would also wait and – for the time being or permanently – prefer to rent, reports Harbalik.
The result: rising rents.
Another factor for this: “After the most recent collective agreements, many can afford a slightly higher rent,” says Peter Schneider.
According to him, for a rental apartment (good living value) one had to expect an average basic rent of 14.50 euros per square meter in Wolfratshausen, 13.50 euros in Bad Tölz and 13 euros in Geretsried in autumn 2023.
We have the worst times behind us.
Martin Harbalik, Sparkasse Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen
“Many people have postponed buying a house or building their own property because of the high costs,” is also the observation of Simone Kleinjung, spokeswoman for Raiffeisenbank in Oberland.
After a decline in real estate investments by both builders and buyers, Raiffeisenbank is now recording “slightly stronger demand for real estate loans” again in the past three months.
In general, “we have the worst times behind us,” Harbalik is also convinced.
Inflation has fallen and there is clarity about the requirements of the Heating Act.
“This gives people a basis for decision-making.”
Interest rates are still high
The interest rate level is still high compared to the low interest rate phase until 2021 and “is also putting a strain on the domestic – private and commercial – construction industry,” says Kleinjung.
But at least: The reduced inflation could be an important signal for the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower the key interest rate “again in the foreseeable future,” said Kleinjung.
At Sparkasse Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen, each interest rate is calculated individually, explains Bernhard Hohenadl.
Head of Construction Financing.
“But in many cases we have a solid three before the decimal point again.” In the second half of 2023, interest rates would have been “definitely above four percent”.
After an absolute lull in 2023, demand for advice on building financing is now increasing again, says Hohenadl.
“We feel a gentle optimism.” Simone Kleinjung shares this.
“Based on buyer behavior and the slight increase in loan demand, we are currently registering, across Germany and regionally, that we are apparently slowly coming out of the real estate trough and things are looking up again.”
Buyers can definitely get a bargain at the moment
According to Gasteiger, buyers can currently “definitely get a bargain”.
If they had found one, they would still have to be quick.
Basically, real estate prices here, “in the sought-after Alpine foothills”, are still at a “high level”.
For prospective buyers, Sparkasse Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen currently has over 40 properties on sale, says Harbalik.
“There is a decent selection there.” The prices vary greatly.
As a rough reference point, Harbalik gives an average value of 830,000 euros for a used, detached house in Geretsried.
Real estate expert is cautiously optimistic about 2024
Meanwhile, sellers “certainly need a little more perseverance than in previous years,” said Gasteiger.
He advises property owners to invest “to halt or even reverse a decline in value,” for example through barrier-free conversion or energy-efficient renovation.
“It pays off in the long term.”
Real estate expert Schneider is also “cautiously optimistic about 2024.”
After the downward trend since mid-2022, “things can now go leisurely sideways and up again,” he says.
“I encourage both prospective buyers and sellers to take their step.”
(branch)