As of: February 28, 2024, 5:58 p.m
By: Lisa Mayerhofer
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This year, corporate insolvencies in Germany will increase again.
This is what an Allianz study suggests.
Bankruptcies will also increase worldwide.
Hamburg – A major wave of bankruptcies is heading towards German companies this year – this is the result of a study by the credit insurer Allianz Trade, which expects an increase in bankruptcies worldwide for the third year in a row.
“This trend also applies to Germany – albeit with a delay compared to most other European countries,” predict the economists at the Hamburg-based Allianz subsidiary.
The number of bankruptcies is expected to increase in 2024
Accordingly, the number of bankruptcies among German companies is likely to increase by 13 percent in 2024 compared to the previous year.
“This increase has already begun, particularly in the second half of 2023,” said Allianz Trade boss for the German-speaking region, Milo Bogaerts.
The number of bankruptcies here has visibly accelerated, with a 25 percent increase compared to the second half of the previous year, “with the hospitality industry, retail, the construction industry and B2B services making significant contributions.”
B2B refers to business between companies, not with consumers.
"We close.
Everything has to go” is written on the banner in the door of a shop.
© Martin Schutt/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa/Symbolbild
In line with this development, analysts at Allianz Trade expect the number of company bankruptcies in Germany to rise to around 20,260 cases this year.
It is not until 2025 that bankruptcies are likely to level off at a somewhat more stable level of just under 20,000 due to the expected recovery of the German economy.
“Corona boomerang” also leads to a wave of bankruptcies
These figures also match the estimates of the business information provider Creditreform.
Last year, the head of Creditreform economic research, Patrik-Ludwig Hantzsch, said about the possible number of bankruptcies in 2024: “Based on current knowledge, around 20,000 is quite realistic.” Hantzsch explained: “More and more companies are failing under the constant stress of the high energy prices and the interest rate turnaround.” An estimated 205,000 jobs will be threatened or lost due to company insolvencies in 2023.
A kind of “corona boomerang” can also be observed in bankruptcies, said Hantzsch: business models that have been maintained thanks to state aid are now facing tough competition, and delayed structural reforms are particularly burdensome in view of the new challenges.
In order to avert a wave of bankruptcies as a result of the pandemic, the state temporarily made exceptions possible.
In 2022, the number of insolvencies had already risen again for the first time since the economic crisis in 2009.
An increase in insolvency figures is also expected worldwide
The Allianz Trade economists are not only predicting a wave of bankruptcies in Germany: worldwide, they expect an increase of nine percent in the number of cases in 2024 - “this year the third escalation in a row” in insolvency events.
The USA, Spain and the Netherlands are particularly affected.
They cite lower growth, trade disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties as key factors for this.
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However, Allianz Trade “does not expect a tsunami of corporate bankruptcies like that seen after the Great Financial Crisis, when global bankruptcies shot up by 17 percent and 19 percent in 2008 and 2009, respectively.”
With material from dpa