If the election were tomorrow, Biden and Trump would be virtually tied among Hispanics: 41% would vote for Trump and 42% would vote for Biden, according to a February NBC News national poll.
But when it comes to who is entrusted to handle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, things change.
Trump is 12 percentage points ahead of Biden
in this regard: 42% of Hispanics trust the former president more than the current president (30%), according to a survey by Siena College and The New York Times carried out in December. .
An even larger majority disapproves of the job Biden is doing in handling this conflict, 57%, versus 31% who approve.
[The American soldier who set himself on fire in front of the Israeli embassy in protest against the war in Gaza dies]
This indignation with the more than 30,000 deaths in Gaza, most of them women and children, as a result of the Israeli offensive, and the discontent with Biden's management, was noted in the Democratic primaries on Tuesday in Michigan, where the movement to vote " Not Committed” won 13%, or 101,000 votes.
In Dearborn, home to the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the country, “Not Committed” carried the president 56% versus 40%.
Although Biden handily won the entire state with 74% of the vote, the message was clear.
Palestinians sit among the rubble of buildings destroyed by an Israeli bombardment, in Rafah, southern Gaza, February 12, 2024. Hatem Ali / AP
“We here in Michigan, in Detroit and Dearborn, are seeing a lot of angry residents.
They don't want to vote,” she said in an interview with Noticias Telemundo Gabriela Santiago-Romero, councilor of Detroit, a city that also approved a ceasefire resolution in Gaza in November.
“They don't want to support Biden.
And we are afraid that Trump could win again.
But we really don't believe that the Democrats are listening to us right now," lamented Santiago-Romero. "We have been asking them for months now to do more to stop the violence we see in Gaza, but they are not paying attention to us.
“We did what we could with our vote, and yesterday they voted to let [Democrats] really know how they are losing their power here in Michigan.”
[“Colonized people”: what explains the broad support for Palestinians in Latin America]
Biden won this Midwestern state in 2020 by just 2% of the vote.
The Latino population there is 5.6%, so for Santiago-Romero “the Latino vote matters, it matters that they listen to us, it matters that Joe Biden really thinks about what he has to do to be able to win the elections again. “votes from Latinos, from our neighbors here in Michigan,” said the councilwoman.
Santiago-Romero says he sees a “solidarity” between the immigrant Latino communities and their Palestinian, Muslim and Arab neighbors, whom he sees “suffering” in the face of the scenes of famine, disease and daily massacres that come from Gaza as a result of the Israeli offensive.
According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, more than 30,000 people have died in Gaza since the war began with the Hamas terrorist group's attack on Israel on October 7, in which 1,200 Israelis were killed and some 250 kidnapped, including women, children. and older people.
Although some were released, 130 are still captured.
Since October, more than 70,300 Palestinians have been injured and thousands more are missing and presumed dead, reports NBC News, sister network of Noticias Telemundo.
Israeli military officials have said that at least 242 of their soldiers have been killed since the ground invasion of Gaza began.
But for a Democratic pollster interviewed by Noticias Telemundo, towns like Detroit are exceptions to the rule, because in his opinion, for Latinos the war in Gaza is an issue that is too distant.
For this reason, said the pollster, this electorate is not well informed about it, and for the same reason not many studies have been done on what Latinos think about the conflict, because it has not been considered an issue of “prominence,” that is, , that it be an issue with weight when voting, such as the economy and immigration.
And when studies have been done, these pollsters said, the results are not significant, since the number of people interviewed is usually too few to be representative at the national level.
Only 2% of Latinos believe that the war in Gaza is a priority when voting, according to the Siena survey, the most extensive so far on the subject.
[How the Israel-Hamas war is dividing Latino evangelicals in the US]
But in cities like Cudahy, south of Los Angeles in California, they disagree.
This city of 22,000 residents, 97% of them Latino, passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza in November.
More than a dozen mayors in the country have passed resolutions urging Israel to stop bombing Gaza, the largest cities in Atlanta and Detroit, and several other cities in Michigan, with its sizable Muslim population, and the same in California.
In California, 52% of Latinos strongly support a ceasefire (compared to 47% nationally), according to a February poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.
For the vice mayor of Cudahy, Elizabeth Alcantara, even though they are “a small city and some people laugh” it was important to “add their voice” against the barbarism that has been unleashed in Gaza.
“Our message as small communities, as Latino communities, is that we are communities that deeply understand what can happen to our families in times of violence, right?
Many of our families fled their countries due to violence that was not their fault,” Alcantara said in an interview with Noticias Telemundo.
Alcantara added that he hopes that by this March 5, the so-called Super Tuesday, when it is the turn of 15 states to vote for the primaries, including California, some in his community will also vote blank or “Not committed”, for a “ disillusionment with the Democratic party and lack of desire to vote.
[UN top court orders Israel to prevent genocide in Gaza but does not demand ceasefire]
“We are seeing that people are not interested in voting and we have to think about why,” said the vice mayor.
“They are disillusioned with what is happening, not just here in our communities: in the world and with our party.
It is time to listen to our communities, to see what they want to see in our nation, in our world... they must see that people want a ceasefire in Gaza, see that our community wants programs like
Health
Care for All
of Health for All)
,
who want free education for our young people.”
Young people are the electorate that most supports a ceasefire and that most rejects the Israeli invasion and the role that the United States plays in it, providing support and billions of dollars in weapons and ammunition.
The United States has been the only country, along with Israel, to veto ceasefire resolutions presented at the United Nations.
For this reason,
72% of young people disapprove of the way Biden has handled the conflict
, versus 20% who approve, according to the Siena survey.
“We are hearing from our young people that we have to take action about what is happening in Gaza… people are without food, without water, without electricity, without medical access,” Alcantara added.
In Gaza, famine is “almost inevitable,” a senior UN humanitarian aid official and the World Food Program warned Tuesday, NBC News reported.
In the north of the enclave, the Israeli offensive has prevented humanitarian aid from entering.
The levels of child malnutrition in Gaza are the worst in the world
, the official said.
Palestinian children with empty basins in hand wait to receive food prepared by volunteers for Palestinian families displaced in southern Gaza by Israeli attacks, among the rubble of destroyed buildings, in Rafah, February 10, 2024. Belal Khaled / Anadolu via Getty Images
Biden himself has said that the Israeli offensive “has been
over the top
,” and this week he told reporters that there could be a breakthrough in peace negotiations as soon as this weekend.
The Government has also said that “Israel must do more” to bring aid to the enclave.
Also, 62% of Democrats overall agree and believe Israel has gone too far, according to a Feb. 2 AP/NORC poll.
53% disapprove of Biden's management, a jump of 7 points since November.
And among those who disapprove of the job Biden is doing managing the conflict, 57% according to the Siena survey, 26% say
the president supports Israel too much,
compared to 8% says he supports the Palestinians too much.
Noticias Telemundo contacted the Biden campaign repeatedly but did not receive a response.
And although 36% of Hispanics sympathized more with Israel, versus 27% with the Palestinians,
more than half (56%) think that Israel is not taking enough precautions to avoid killing civilians
(23% think that it does take enough precautions and a similar number, 21%, do not know).
“And that is in December,” Dan Levy, director of the University of Siena Research Institute, responsible for the December survey done in conjunction with The New York Times, explained in an interview with Noticias Telemundo.
“Since then it has only gotten worse, much worse.
Three months later, not only have they not stopped [the Israeli offensive] but the media has made it clear how the Palestinians are fighting for their lives.”
Along the same lines, more than half (53%) also think that Israel should stop its military campaign, versus 29% who think it should continue.
More Hispanics think Israel is killing civilians intentionally (31%) than unintentionally (21%).
“There is no reason to think that those numbers have gone down, in fact, they have most likely gone up,” Levy added.
“Will this have an effect?
If the election were today, yes.
Is this issue going to continue moving support from Biden to Trump?
Yes,” said the pollster.
In fact, an “Uncommitted” push is expected in other states beyond Michigan.
Santiago-Romero, the Detroit councilwoman, said she hopes a similar effect will be replicated in other localities.
Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz said Wednesday that some of that state's Somali population, the largest in the country, will likely vote “Noncommitted” in the primary next week.
Also, a national campaign by Muslim leaders to “Dump Biden” has gained momentum in key states such as Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
A child stands in a crater from an Israeli bombing in Rafah, Southern Gaza, February 23, 2024.Mohammed Abed / AFP - Getty Images
In North Carolina, a swing state like Michigan, which votes on Super Tuesday, although there has not been a movement like the one that mobilized the “Not Committed” protest vote, there are people who “understand that the power of their vote can change the policies of a president like Biden,” Ricky Hurtado, former Democratic congressional candidate for North Carolina, told Noticias Telemundo.
“I have heard a lot from people who are not inspired, motivated, right now to campaign for [Biden] to ensure that he can win in North Carolina.
I don't think there are many people who are thinking about voting for Trump, but there are many people who are thinking about what they can do to raise their voice and change the situation.
What if they don't change?
Well, maybe they won't vote,” Hurtado said.
In this southern state, Trump has a 9-point lead over Biden, according to the Real Clear Politics survey average.
In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by just 1.34%.
“My message to the president and to Democrats in general is that this issue may be the reason why he loses the election,” Hurtado said.
“Then he should use all the resources he has as president to put pressure on [Israeli] President Netanyahu to change things, because the way he is handling the situation right now can no longer be accepted.”