As of: February 29, 2024, 4:37 p.m
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Construction workers stand on scaffolding at a construction site.
© Marcus Brandt/dpa/Symbolbild
The association saw it coming, but not to this extent.
In Hamburg alone, privately financed housing construction has collapsed by more than 85 percent.
The reason is crystal clear to experts.
Hamburg - According to the North Regional Association of the Federal Association of Independent Real Estate and Housing Companies (BFW), privately financed housing construction in Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has almost collapsed.
This is not a decline, “this is a really catastrophic crash,” said the chairman of the state association, Sönke Struck, on Thursday with a view to the number of new buildings.
Last year, the member companies in Hamburg started building just 770 apartments - 85.3 percent less than in 2022. In Schleswig-Holstein, the start of construction fell by 71.9 percent to 556 apartments, and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania by 71.9 percent 58.4 percent on just 89 apartments.
Since 2010, the BFW North Regional Association has been collecting data every year on the construction activity of around 230 member companies, which also manage around 180,000 apartments.
In Hamburg, companies are reportedly responsible for more than 60 percent of the new construction volume.
It was to be expected that there would be a sharp decline in 2023, said Struck.
“But this drastic decline exceeds our worst fears.” The dimension is historic.
And there is no improvement in sight for the time being, as the plans for the current year have almost collapsed.
The member companies in Hamburg wanted to start building just 971 apartments in 2024 - 62 percent less than the year before, in Schleswig-Holstein with 967 apartments (minus 42.5 percent) and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with 72 apartments (minus 66 percent). ).
“The consequences that arise from this are much worse,” said Struck.
Because what is not started will not be finished and will then be missing in the following years.
The drama is currently not reaching those looking for an apartment, said Struck.
According to the information, the member companies of the BFW North Regional Association completed 3,202 apartments in Hamburg in 2023, which is a decrease of three percent compared to 2022.
In Schleswig-Holstein, with 1,576 completed apartments, an increase of 12.1 percent was recorded, and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, with 476 new apartments, an increase of 41.3 percent was recorded.
From 2025 onwards - and this is actually the unpleasant message - there will no longer be any supply to the already stressed housing market, warned Struck.
“That means that we have a real problem, not just in Hamburg.” The result: Not only those looking for an apartment with a budget of around ten euros per square meter would continue to have major problems, but those with up to 15 euros would also be affected square meters could pay.
The past ten years have been very good years, but they have been very capital-driven due to the favorable financing options.
A lot of money was invested in real estate.
“Usually when interest rates rise, demand falls and then construction prices usually also fall,” said Struck.
But this time that is not the case.
The reason is high energy and material prices and also increased wages.
The decisive factor, however, is the high requirements, which make cost-covering construction impossible.
They made projects so expensive that they were no longer economically viable and many companies refrained from building new buildings.
During the low interest rate phase, the requirements were just economically justifiable, said Struck.
But that is over now.
“We need a deregulation of the requirements.” This applies, for example, to the very expensive building technology.
“Although we save energy, we also easily spend the money on maintenance and repair costs.” In addition, there are excessive ventilation and sound insulation requirements as well as accessibility requirements.
And a lot could also be done with the regulations for the disposal of construction waste and with the DIN standards on house insulation, for example.
From Struck's point of view, the construction costs including the land would have to fall again to around 4,500 euros per square meter in order to be able to charge reasonable rents.
Currently they are closer to 6,500 euros, which, according to Struck, with the current interest and additional costs, leads to a net rent of 23.82 euros per square meter - without profit or depreciation.
dpa