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“Together we can do anything”: Vladimir Putin.
© Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP/dpa
Munich – The journalist Sabine Adler worked as a correspondent in Russia for many years.
She is currently heading the reporter pool for Eastern Europe at Deutschlandradio.
In her recently published book “What will become of Russia?” she gives an insight into the mindset of the majority of the Russian people.
Ms. Adler, is there still a Russian opposition at all?
The Russian opposition is very weak.
Within Russia it is hardly able to act - we can see this just from the mourners who are arrested even for laying flowers.
The particularly active people have left the country anyway.
And too little happens in exile.
Russia's opposition members do not organize well: they do not speak with one voice, they do not form a government in exile, they do not have a common program - and above all, they do not reach out to the Russians in the interior of the country.
Whether Khodorkovsky, Kasparov or Navalny: These are and were all very strong personalities who unfortunately did not produce a strong common alliance.
Are you doing too little?
This should not be taken as an accusation.
The opposition was weakened long before Putin came into government.
Even as a KGB and FSB agent, he fought against dissidents and free thinkers.
For decades he has directed the state apparatus to eliminate the opposition.
You shouldn't blame her for that.
A government that locks up its opponents, kills them, arrests mourners - doesn't that affect the Russians?
I understand the hope that Navalny's death could wake up the Russians.
Of course, this people is not completely jaded.
But overall – and both state and independent opinion polls show this – the majority of Russian citizens are either Putin supporters or indifferent.
In addition, the indifferent are automatically assigned to Putin supporters by Russian propaganda - and since they are not particularly interested in politics, they let this happen to them.
In your book you describe that the Russians hardly feel anything from the Western sanctions.
Is that why they are so apolitical?
Maybe that's one reason.
But I still think it's right that we want the Western sanctions to hit those responsible and not the population.
After all, the Russian leadership doesn't care how much its people suffer - the well-being of the people is not the measure of a dictatorship.
She doesn't care whether hundreds of thousands of soldiers die, whether citizens have heat or can afford their housing.
The benchmark is the elite's retention of power.
We cannot tighten the thumbscrews from the outside so tightly that the Russian population goes to the barricades.
Would she even have a chance of overthrowing her president?
I'm very pessimistic about it.
Putin has created a mafia state.
The army, police, private mercenary companies, banks, defense companies, media: all belong to his clique.
If military, economic, media and state power is concentrated in a few hands - who should be able to break that down?
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Have the Russians simply resigned themselves to their powerlessness?
In the past, the Russian leadership was forgiven for many things.
If you look at life in the countryside, it is so desolate, decades of development, technology and infrastructure have simply gone by.
But that wasn't really important to many people.
But Russia was a superpower - that compensated for a lot.
This imperial thinking prevents people from thinking democratically.
That's why you definitely don't want to end up as a loser in this war - whether you think it's a good thing or not.
Especially since Russia, as an aggressor, would also have to pay for the huge damage in Ukraine: The Russians watched very closely how much and for how long the Germans had to pay in reparations.
Nobody wants that.
So the opposition has no chance?
One cannot rule out miracles.
We experienced the end of the Iron Curtain and the reunification of Germany.
History always has surprises in store.
Perhaps the opposition would have a chance if Russia lost this war.
That would challenge Putin's power.
For this to happen, the opposition would have to be there immediately, have enough support among the population and be able to present a concrete plan for what to do next.
I don't see that at the moment.
The book “What Will Become of Russia?”
About a nation between war and self-destruction.” Ch. Links Verlag, 321 pages, 22 euros.