As of: February 29, 2024, 2:32 p.m
By: Moritz Maier
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Press
Split
The breakaway region of Transnistria is moving towards Russia.
There is calculation behind this - and an attempt to expand the war in Ukraine.
A Russia expert classifies.
Tiraspol – It is considered the “last Soviet republic” in the world.
The Transnistria region, officially part of EU candidate Moldova, but de facto an independent region with its own regime, follows the tradition of the Soviet Union and has a lot of sympathy for Putin's Russia.
Now Transnistria is asking Putin for protection and could thereby set in motion a new military escalation in Eastern Europe.
Because: The parallels in Russian dealings with Transnistria and Ukraine are clearly visible.
Russian troops in Transnistria – what is Putin planning?
Transnistria, which is controlled and self-governed by pro-Russian separatists, declared itself independent from the Republic of Moldova, which was newly founded after the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1992.
This secession is not recognized under international law or law, except by Russia.
The region, in which around a third of the population is ethnic Russian, has been under the influence of the Kremlin for over 30 years; Moscow has even stationed soldiers there.
The latest request for protection from Moldova comes amid moves to incorporate Transnistria into Russia.
A clear pattern has become apparent, particularly since the beginning of Russian aggression in Ukraine in 2014.
“The government of Transnistria had already decided to join Russia in 2014, and in 2022 there were unrest that were possibly intended to provoke a Russian landing in Transnistria,” says Wolfgang Müller to
IPPEN.MEDIA
.
He is a professor at the Institute for Eastern European History at the University of Vienna and researches Soviet history.
An integration and troop relocation to the region in eastern Moldova has not yet taken place, but Müller still speaks of an “extremely dangerous situation”.
Transnistria takes on new strategic importance in the Ukraine war
“Since the Russian aggression against Ukraine, Transnistria has taken on a new strategic importance, as an invasion of Ukraine from the southwest would be very dangerous for Ukraine,” says the Russia expert.
“It is entirely possible that Russia will now seek further escalation.”
The de facto self-governing region of Transnistria in eastern Moldova is politically close to Russia.
© IMAGO/Artem Kulekin
The plan to open another front in the Ukraine war has been on the table since 2022.
However, with the separatists' latest request, which is only likely to have been made with Putin's consent, this danger is taking on new relevance.
“You can no longer rule out the possibility that the conventional war will cross Ukraine’s borders,” says Müller about the situation.
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Transnistria: A region in Russian hands
Müller, who studies political thought in Russia, was not surprised by the report from Transnistria.
The region differs significantly from the rest of Moldova, which has historically been very close to neighboring Romania.
Transnistria, on the other hand, became part of the Russian Empire in the 18th century and later stood politically on the side of the Soviet Union and now Russia.
While the Republic of Moldova is a democracy and a candidate for EU membership and is oriented towards the West, the political system in Transnistria is repressive and unfree.
Transnistria |
|
|---|---|
Capital city: |
Tiraspol (estimated 150,000 inhabitants) |
Resident: |
around 375,000 in total |
Area: |
3567 km² |
Status: |
Russia-backed de facto regime |
international law: |
Part of the Republic of Moldova |
Official languages: |
Moldovan, Russian and Ukrainian |
The parallels in Russian narratives about Transnistria and Ukraine are striking.
In 2014, Putin used the protection of the supposedly oppressed population of Russian origin as the reason for his invasion of eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
The president also put forward a similar argument in 2022 before the major offensive began.
The hostilities were preceded by requests for help from pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine.
The same thing can now be observed in Transnistria.
“Many Russian arguments are very similar when it comes to Transnistria and Ukraine,” says Müller, but emphasizes that Transnistria does not have the same historical or political significance for Russia as Ukraine.
Despite Putin's influence in Transnistria, there are military hurdles
So what remains is the strategically important location of Transnistria in the Ukraine war.
The region is located not far from the port city of Odessa, which is important for Ukraine.
Another front is likely to further aggravate the already tense situation in Ukraine.
However, since Russia does not control any areas in Ukraine bordering Transnistria and has no military dominance in the Black Sea, moving troops to the separatist region is likely to be difficult for Putin, says Eastern Europe expert Müller: “The transfer of larger troops overland is not possible at the moment, and the air route is also very risky.”