Gustavo Petro enjoys some relief in the face of public opinion.
The image of the president of Colombia rebounds in the Invamer Poll when he has already been in power for more than a year and a half.
The approval of the Government is recovering after having hit lows, according to the traditional bimonthly survey that turns 30 years old, although it remains in negative territory.
58% of those consulted disapprove of his management, while 35% approve it in the first measurement of 2024. The new mayors of the main cities, who took office with the new year, start their mandate with favorable figures.
The president, elected with just over 50% of the votes in the second round, had just recorded his worst figures in December, when approval plummeted to 26% compared to 66% rejection.
In the first measurement of his Government, in August 2022, 56% of those consulted approved of his nascent management, while 20% disapproved.
Since the beginning of 2023 he entered negative territory, although he has not fallen to the worst red numbers of his predecessor, Iván Duque, who went through a prolonged popularity crisis and said goodbye with 27% approval to 68% of disapproval.
“It is not entirely unexpected,” says analyst Sergio Guzmán, from the consulting firm Colombia Risk Analysis.
This recovery had already been reflected in the aggregate presidential favorability index in which that firm follows the different measurements.
“An overwhelming majority of Colombians still think that the situation in the country is worsening, 63% versus 23%, but it does represent a rebound for the Government, since two months before it was 76% of the people,” he clarifies.
“The president is in negative net favorability, but at least he is no longer in a tailspin.”
The explanations are not very obvious.
The major reforms proposed by the Government - health, pensions, work - remain stuck in Congress, where majorities elude them.
Security has deteriorated (82% believe it is getting worse) and the economy, which barely grew 0.6% last year, is generating concern (74% believe it is getting worse).
The beginning of the year has been very tense.
While Barranquilla lost the venue of the Pan American Games because the Executive did not make agreed payments to the organization, a notorious scandal that cost the Minister of Sports her head, Cali was the city chosen to host the world summit. of biodiversity this year, COP 16.
However, since the previous measurement, inflation has subsided, the reduction in interest rates is beginning to be felt and, above all, there is an atmosphere of political change due to the arrival of distant mayors to the Government in Cali and Medellín.
In these two cities the percentage of those who believe that things are improving skyrockets, from 21% to 46% in the capital of Antioquia and from 19% to 39% in Valle del Cauca.
Precisely, the mayors of the five main cities started with approval levels above 50%.
Federico Gutiérrez in Medellín registers 76% approval, which contrasts with the record disapproval with which Daniel Quintero said goodbye.
In Barranquilla, Alex Char scores 74%.
Alejandro Eder, who has just signed up for Cali to host COP 16, starts with 64%.
In Bucaramanga, pastor Jaime Andrés Beltrán has 61%.
And Carlos Fernando Galán, who achieved a historic vote of almost half of the support in Bogotá, begins his administration with an approval of 54%.
“I am surprised by Eder's favorability, Fico Gutiérrez is doing very well and Carlos Fernando Galán is not doing badly,” summarizes political analyst and strategist Carlos Andrés Arias.
“For all mayors, governors and the president himself there is an emotional phenomenon that is determined by the closing of the year and the beginning of the year, and they are the fairs and festivals that the country experiences,” he clarifies in his analysis.
“Emotionality improves for all Colombians” during these times, and that can help explain the rebound in almost all indicators.
The bulk of Colombian institutions, with few exceptions, are poorly valued, which has been a constant for several years.
Be it Congress (62% unfavorable opinion), the Supreme Court (57%), the Prosecutor's Office (54%) or the Attorney General's Office (42%).
“In this country we have been losing confidence in the institutions,” says analyst Guzmán.
That break occurred in the second term of Juan Manuel Santos, in the midst of the Democratic Center's fierce opposition to the dialogues with the FARC guerrilla, and has not been able to recover since then.
“None of the institutions have a good reputation,” agrees Arias, the political strategist.
“Citizens today do not believe in institutions, and that is the great data of this survey beyond political personalizations.”
In another striking leap, security and public order become Colombia's main problem for 29% of those consulted, surpassing concerns about unemployment and the economy (23%, after being 31%). .
A certain climate of pessimism permeates the questions related to total peace, the president's flagship policy to negotiate simultaneously with various armed groups, in addition to finalizing the agreement that Santos signed with the extinct FARC.
61% of those consulted consider that the implementation is going in the wrong direction, compared to 27% who believe the opposite, figures slightly better than those of Duque, a critic of that negotiation.
In general, 62% believe that total peace is going in the wrong direction, while 27% believe that it is going in the right direction.
However, the majority of those surveyed (53% compared to 43%) once again agree with continuing to negotiate with the ELN guerrillas, the first table that was opened within the framework of the total peace policy.
In December, for the first time, the number of people who would prefer to stop negotiating had been greater (49% compared to 47%).
Since then, amid the ups and downs, the ELN has finally committed to abandoning the practice of kidnapping and the delegations agreed to extend the bilateral ceasefire until mid-year.
A majority of 59% favors the option of insisting on dialogue with armed groups until peace agreements are reached, while 37% prefers to try to defeat them militarily.
Subscribe here
to the EL PAÍS newsletter about Colombia and
here to the WhatsApp channel
, and receive all the key information on current events in the country.