As of: February 29, 2024, 7:12 p.m
By: Stephanie Munk
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French President Emmanuel Macron (l.) brought up the deployment of Western ground troops in the Ukraine war - a provocation for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
© Imago (photomontage)
Macron does not rule out NATO ground troops in the Ukraine war.
Experts interviewed by IPPEN.MEDIA see carelessness – or an important signal to Putin.
Paris/Berlin – French President Emmanuel Macron broke a taboo on Monday evening.
He no longer ruled out sending Western ground troops in the Ukraine war.
At the summit of over 20 countries on Monday (February 26) in Paris, there was no agreement on the use of ground troops - but nothing could be ruled out in the future course of the war, said Macron.
Everything must be done to prevent Russia from winning the war.
The reactions to this range from rejection to horror.
However , two experts expressed very different opinions when asked by
IPPEN.MEDIA
.
One thing is clear: Macron takes a completely different line than Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
He declared on Tuesday that it would continue to apply in the future "that there are no ground troops on Ukrainian soil that are sent there by European states or NATO states." All parties in the Bundestag agreed with him.
Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that sending Western contingents to Ukraine would lead to “a direct military clash between Russia and NATO.”
Western ground troops in the Ukraine war: Macron's statement reveals “two frightening things”
For military expert Joachim Weber from the University of Bonn, "Macron's latest move reveals two equally frightening things": On the one hand, it shows that Germany and France "are not cooperating with each other in this major European crisis, but are taking almost opposite paths," Weber criticizes
Merkur. de
from
IPPEN.MEDIA.
On the other hand, Macron is playing with fire with his statement: “Macron is almost playfully juggling the idea of expanding” the Ukraine war “into a major war between Russia and the West,” said the security policy expert.
“Both show the frightening immaturity of European politics when it comes to existential questions.
Putin should continue to have an easy time of it.”
Dr.
Joachim Weber, security policy expert at the University of Bonn.
© Private
NATO ground troops in Ukraine?
Macron is sending a signal to Putin
Ulf Steindl from the “Austria Institute for European and Security Policy,” however, comes to a different assessment.
The fact that Macron does not rule out sending Western troops does not mean that this will soon be a political reality, said European security policy expert
Merkur.de
.
Rather, Macron wanted to send a signal to Putin: the West would not give in in the Ukraine war.
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“Putin wants to fight this war for as long as possible in order to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO after a peace agreement,” says Steindl in an interview with
Merkur.de
.
Russia is speculating that Western support for Ukraine will eventually disappear.
Macron's words would start right here: He wants to demonstrate to the Kremlin that the West will not let Russia win - whatever the cost.
“Nothing must be excluded in order to achieve the goal,” were Macron’s words.
Macron wants to show that Russia cannot hope for an easy victory in Ukraine
It is very difficult to assess whether Putin will be impressed by this, explains security expert Steindl.
But one thing is clear: The Kremlin cannot afford the war in Ukraine forever: “So far, Russia has benefited greatly from its stocks of ammunition and weapons technology.
And there is an end in sight.”
It is “unthinkable” that there will currently be a consensus within NATO on sending ground troops, said defense expert Steindl.
According to NATO Article 4, there would have to be a joint decision for this.
“If so, there could only be a coalition of the willing at the national level.
And we’re a long way from that too.”
In fact, several European NATO states declared on Tuesday that sending ground troops was out of the question, for example Great Britain, Poland and the Czech Republic.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also made it clear: “There are no plans for NATO combat troops on site in Ukraine.”
Defense expert Ulf Steindl from the “Austria Institute for European and Security Policy”.
© Private
NATO troops in Ukraine?
Different scenarios are conceivable
Military expert Steindl also emphasizes that Macron does not automatically mean NATO soldiers on the Ukraine front when he brings up the possibility of sending Western ground troops.
It is also possible to train or otherwise support Ukrainian soldiers directly in Ukraine.
Similar to the UN mission, the deployment of European soldiers could also serve to “keep conflict parties away from each other and form a kind of buffer”.
In the case of the Ukraine war, this is conceivable, for example, on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border.
This could relieve pressure on Ukraine: it would then no longer have to station so many troops there because of potential attacks.
Russia warns of conflict with NATO - Wagenknecht speaks of the risk of world war
But how would Putin react if NATO intervened in any way with soldiers in the Ukraine war?
The Kremlin's warning about Macron's move is alarming: "The very fact that the possibility of sending any contingents from NATO states to Ukraine is being discussed is of course very important and a new element," said Putin's spokesman Peskov.
The German Left Party and Sahra Wagenknecht's new party BSW have already warned of the outbreak of World War III if NATO states send ground troops.
Steindl doesn't believe in such catastrophe scenarios.
“Russia has regularly and repeatedly warned over the last two years – for example before the delivery of certain weapons systems – of an escalation up to nuclear war and has never followed through.” Therefore, the credibility of Russian statements is highly doubtful.
Third World War by ground troops in Ukraine?
“Manslaughter argument not very helpful”
The expert on European security policy therefore considers the “homicide argument” that there is a threat of a third world war to be “not very helpful”.
What is necessary, however, is an objective discussion about what function Western troops could possibly have.
At the same time, Russia must be made aware that any Western support for Ukraine only extends to the Russian border - and that NATO's goal is not to overthrow the Russian regime.
In any case, Macron didn't just say his statement about Western ground troops - he even had his Prime Minister Gabriel Attal repeat it the next day.
You can “not rule out anything” in a war “in the heart of Europe,” Attal told radio station
RTL
.
Stephanie Munk