A
new national survey
, from one of the best-known consultancies in the market, left
bad and good news
for
Javier Milei
.
The study emphasized
inflation
.
The negative side?
There is a record of concern about the issue.
The positive?
Expectations regarding its evolution improved.
The survey is from
Synopsis
, a firm created in 2015 under the wing of Ecolatina, the consulting firm founded by Roberto Lavagna.
Synopsis is directed by political scientist
Lucas Romero
, an analyst read and listened to in the red circle.
Between February 9 and 13, the pollster surveyed
1,395 cases throughout the country
, to make its usual monthly
"Panorama of public opinion
. "
Although it is "exclusive for clients",
Clarín
accessed a copy.
The 6 main conclusions of the month
At the outset, the report details the
main conclusions
drawn by the consulting firm based on the current results and the comparison with previous ones.
Among others, data linked to inflation stands out there.
Since Milei assumed the presidency, Indec reported
two consumer price indices
(CPI).
The December one (10 days for Sergio Massa/Alberto Fernández and 20 for Milei/Luis Caputo) gave
25.5%
;
that of January (all from the new management),
20.6%
.
In that context, these are the 6 conclusions of
Synopsis
:
The evaluation of the Government's performance remains relatively stable
: "The image of the Government in its first 60 days shows one aspect in favor and another against. The negative is that it registered two months of negative differentials, the positive is that it remained relatively stable, when we went through the worst part of the post-devaluation inflationary shock."
February marks a new historical high of concern about inflation
: "As happened in January, in February we again registered the highest level of concern about inflation in the last 8 years. An increase that could be associated with the increase in prices , but also because some other concerns stop worrying, such as corruption."
The expectation regarding the times in which inflation will be lowered improves
: "In February there was an improvement in the expectations that public opinion has regarding the success that Javier Milei may have in lowering inflation to single digits. The percentage of who believe that the ruling party will be able to lower inflation to single digits in 3 or 6 months, more than doubling compared to what was observed in January."
Expectations about the country's situation and personal situation improve
: "Expectations about what the country's economic situation and personal economic situation will be like in a year improved compared to the January record, with an increase in levels of optimism (+8% and +4.4% respectively) and a drop in pessimism levels."
Public opinion sees shared responsibilities in the fall of the Bases Law
: "Public opinion distributed almost balanced responsibilities between the ruling party and the opposition when it came to explaining the fall of the Bases Law. While 46.7% assigned more responsibility to the opposition for the frustrated treatment, another 42.3% considered that the greatest responsibility lay with the president.
Key inflation data
The report then expands on the analysis and data linked to prices.
Regarding the
record of concern about inflation
, it reached a peak of
65.2%
in February of this year .
Corruption follows far behind with 16.2% and education with 4.4
%
.
Beyond the obvious increase in concern in parallel with the surge in prices, it is interesting what the study analyzes regarding the drop in other concerns.
"The drop in concern about corruption - the report explains - is not surprising since it is what happens in non-Peronist cycles, as happened during the mandate of Mauricio Macri. The non-Peronist electorate, which is the one that monopolizes concern about corruption, ceases to have that concern in non-Peronist governments."
The survey then focuses on the
responsibility for current inflation
.
And there the
"Previous Government"
of Alberto Fernández is on top, with
48.1%
against
37.4%
of the
"Current Government"
of Javier Milei.
"Both governments" takes 14% and completes "ns/nc" with 0.4%.
Lastly, and perhaps most importantly for the President and his Minister of Economy, expectations improved with the evolution of prices.
Synopsis
asks how long interviewees believe it will take the Government to lower inflation to single digits.
The report highlights:
"In February we registered an improvement in expectations due to the success that Javier Milei may have in lowering inflation to one digit. Those who believe that there may be one digit of inflation in the next 3 or 6 months more than doubled in February, passing from representing 9.8% of those consulted in January to representing 22.2% of those consulted this month".
"There was also a decrease in the percentage of disbelievers, since those who maintained that inflation will not be able to lower to single digits went from 50.8% in January to 41.9% in February."