As of: February 29, 2024, 10:42 a.m
By: Florian Naumann
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An appeal from Transnistria to Russia brings back dark memories - and worries about parallels.
What will Putin announce on Thursday?
Chisinau – history sometimes repeats itself.
In case of doubt, a person at the levers of power with a penchant for fixed patterns of behavior could be sufficient - Vladimir Putin, for example.
This is now causing concern: On Wednesday (February 28), the separatists in Moldova's Transnistria asked Russia for “protection”.
The Ukraine war began in a very similar way in February 2022: with a “request for help” from the pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.
At first it seemed completely unclear what could happen in the east of Moldova, an EU candidate country - right on the border with Ukraine.
Possible scenarios range from annexation to the deployment of Russian soldiers to an attack on Moldova, which is anything but positive for Russia under President Maia Sandu.
At the same time, there is a worrying network of “coincidences” - even beyond the parallel with Ukraine: Russia had already initiated the Caucasus War with more concrete steps in the spring of the presidential election year of 2008.
The Russian election is also coming up in 2024.
And then Putin will give his “State of the Nation Address” on Thursday (February 29).
It is possible that the Kremlin boss will then send very tangible signals.
Putin gets the next “cry for help”: concerns about Moldova shortly before the “State of the Nation Address”
In 2022, when Russia launched its bloody invasion of Ukraine, that traditional speech was canceled.
However, Putin had given a “speech
to the
nation”.
Ultimately, it was only about one thing: justifying the war of aggression.
The autocratically ruling Putin argued with history and denied Ukraine “statehood”.
It was “inevitable” to “immediately recognize the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic,” he said at the time.
“Possible further bloodshed” would be on the conscience of “the regime ruling on the territory of Ukraine.”
Shortly before, the Russian separatists had asked Putin for “help in repelling the aggression” of Ukrainian armed forces.
Putin had promised military intervention if asked.
Complaints are now coming from Transnistria about an “economic blockade” by the Moldovan government.
That sounds less dramatic, but it could serve as an opportunity – for whatever.
According to Russian reports, in an initial reaction, Putin's Foreign Ministry called "protecting the interests of the residents of Transnistria, our compatriots" a "priority."
There could even be a disastrous combination of the two cases: Transnistria borders the west of Ukraine.
Kiev's military fears an attack from there towards Odessa.
The Ukrainian port city was also in focus at the beginning of the Ukrainian war.
Recently, Russia's Black Sea Fleet has had to struggle with massive difficulties.
An opportunity for a land attack could now arise via the Transnistrian detour - while in 2022 there was still speculation that Russia could march straight on to Transnistria via Odessa.
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Russia heats up the war zone in the spring: Parallels between Ukraine, Georgia – and Moldova?
It would not be the first time that Putin's regime launched military attacks on neighboring countries in the spring - even beyond the invasion of Ukraine.
In addition to Transnistria (where it is estimated that around 1,500 Russian soldiers were already stationed before the call for help), Russia has two other friendly separatist “republics” on hand: Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The two pseudo-states on Georgian territory, which were barely recognized internationally, had fought, sometimes bloodily, for independence from Georgia since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In August 2008, however, Russia intervened militarily in the “Caucasus War” - not only in the breakaway areas that Georgia wanted to bring back under its control by force, but also with soldiers in other cities in the country and air strikes.
A statue of Lenin still greets the parliament in Tiraspol today - Vladimir Putin will give his “state of the nation speech” in Moscow on Thursday.
© Montage: Imago/picture-alliance/dpa/Hannah Wagner/UPI Photo/fn
Just at the beginning of March 2008, Russia ended sanctions against Abkhazia and a Russian general was appointed defense minister of South Ossetia, as Putin critic Andrei Illarionov wrote in sober words in
Novaya Gazeta
under the headline “How war was prepared”.
In the same month, the two separatist parliaments asked Russia to recognize independence.
All of this happened more or less parallel to the presidential election – which Dmitri Medvedev won.
A little later, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned against Georgia joining NATO.
This goal and the pro-Western President Mikhail Saakashvili have long been a thorn in Russia's side.
There were also widely doubted allegations of genocide against Georgia's government.
So there are a lot of parallels to Ukraine, not just when it comes to timing in the spring.
And also some to Moldova.
Putin and the “state of the nation speeches”: threats, announcements – and worries
The spring and especially the “state of the nation speeches” are definitely critical points in Putin’s actions.
Last year he gutted the New Start nuclear weapons treaty.
In 2020, for example, there was no saber rattling from his mouth, but there was an announcement that he wanted to enable further terms of office for the president through a referendum - especially for himself. The Russian constitution had prohibited more than two consecutive terms in office;
that would have meant Putin's departure in 2024.
In 2019, the Kremlin boss threatened the USA: If short- and medium-haul routes were stationed in Europe, Russia would “create and deploy types of weapons” that can also be used against “decision-making centers”.
It was hardly a coincidence that Putin also mentioned new supersonic rockets and nuclear-powered cruise missiles and the underwater drone “Poseidon”.
Already in 2018 he spoke for a full 45 minutes about Russian high-tech weapons, as the
Süddeutsche
noted.
Ukraine was already an issue in 2013 – Putin spoke of “equality”
Putin's “state of the nation speeches” have sounded completely different in the past - at least to superficial listening.
“We don’t want to be seen as a superpower, a global or regional hegemon.
But we want to be leaders.
And in doing so, defend international law and respect the national sovereignty of peoples,” said Russia’s president in December 2013.
Ukraine was also a minor topic at the time - the Euromaidan protests were taking place in Kiev at the time;
However, with the Kremlin-friendly Viktor Yanukovych still in the presidency.
“We are not forcing anything on anyone,” said Putin: “Our integration project is based on equality, on real economic interests.” Now, a good ten years later, something seems clearer, as Putin calls “national sovereignty of peoples”, “equality” and “international Law” understands.
Putin's subversive: Georgia also already has Russian troops in the country
It also seems possible that the pattern of “support” for separatists and Russian citizens has not yet been exhausted.
Almost exactly a year ago, Russian diplomats warned Georgia about war.
Amid protests in Tbilisi, the embassy wrote at the time: “We recommend that the Georgian people remember a similar situation in Ukraine in 2014 and what it led to.”
The reason for the demonstrations was a law against “foreign agents,” which opponents criticized as a “Russian law.”
Like Moldova, Georgia is a candidate for EU membership.
However, the course that had actually been announced towards NATO had recently started to falter, as Deutsche Welle reported.
Also because there are hardly any signals for a recording.
One reason for this seems extremely ambivalent: there are Russian troops in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
(fn)