The leaders of Transnistria were undoubtedly suspended on Thursday by Vladimir Putin's speech.
The Russian president ultimately did not have a word for them.
The authorities of this pro-Russian separatist region of Moldova had nevertheless requested “protection” from Moscow on Wednesday in the face of “increasing pressure” from Chisinau.
A call which fueled fears of Russian intervention in this territory bordering Ukraine.
Le Parisien takes stock of the situation.
What is Transnistria?
Transnistria is a narrow strip of land 450 km long, wedged between the Dniester River to the west and Ukraine to the east.
It was part of the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic until the fall of the USSR in 1991. Populated mainly by Russian speakers, the region then seceded from the Republic of Moldova to remain in the Russian fold.
This decision is at the origin of the “Dniester War”.
The conflict, which left hundreds dead, ended in July 1992, after a ceasefire negotiated by Moscow.
The region was never officially reintegrated into Moldova and maintained its autonomy.
It thus acquired a government, a Parliament, and even a currency (the Transnistrian ruble).
However, its independence is not recognized, including by Russia.
What are its links with Russia?
Transnistria continues to maintain important ties with Russia today.
1,500 Russian soldiers are still present there, officially for a peacekeeping mission.
The region is also dependent on Russian gas, which it uses in particular to power the country's main electricity plant.
It is also populated by a majority of Russian speakers.
In its appeal to Russia on Wednesday, the Tiraspol authorities referred to “more than 220,000 Russian citizens” – out of nearly 500,000 inhabitants – who according to them live in this territory.
Moscow made the “protection” of these residents a “priority” on Wednesday, affirming that it would “carefully examine” Tiraspol’s request, without giving further details.
Why did she ask for “protection” from Moscow?
Transdniestrian MPs denounced “the growing pressure from Moldova” in their statement on Wednesday.
A reference to the recent obligation for local companies to pay taxes, from which they were until now exempt, in Chisinau for their imports, indicates geopolitical analyst Ulrich Bounat.
Quick 🧵 on this call from #Transnistria to #Russia, as the subject can be misinterpreted.
No, Moscow is not going to annex Tiraspol tomorrow.
First the context: since January 1 Chisinau has required companies in Transnistria to pay taxes on their imports https://t.co/l6Wr7e8Leu
— Ulrich Bounat (@UBounat) February 28, 2024
According to him, these taxes represent “a death blow” for Transnistria, “whose economy relies heavily on smuggling”.
“It is in this context that the authorities in Tiraspol decided to bring together their delegates to launch an appeal for aid – impliedly financial – from Moscow, to help the regime absorb the shock,” he explains. at the Parisian.
What can Russia do?
The appeal by elected officials from Transnistria on Wednesday revived fears of an annexation of this region by Russia, or even an attack against Moldova.
Moscow had already used the pretext of defending the self-proclaimed separatist republics of Donbass to invade Ukraine, just two years ago.
Also read: Two years of war in Ukraine: the new face of the conflict
However, an annexation seems “unlikely”, according to Ulrich Bounat.
If only because, unlike Ukraine, “Transnistria is completely cut off from Russia”.
The latter would also have no interest in a conflict: “a military action would lead to a reaction from the Ukrainians, and probably from the Romanians, and therefore from the EU”, he anticipates.
Above all, observes the researcher, Transnistria is only “useful” to Moscow to the extent that it is integrated into Moldova.
Thanks to its influence in Tiraspol, Russia has a lever of pressure on the Moldovan authorities, of which it would be deprived if the region became independent.
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In its daily update on the situation in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also estimated on Wednesday that the request from the Transnistrian separatists offered the Kremlin justification for "a wide range of actions against Moldova.”
The most likely scenario being, according to the American think tank, an intensification of destabilization operations.
This comes as the EU opened negotiations for Moldova's membership in December, and a presidential election is due to take place there in a few months.
“Moldova is facing increasingly aggressive destabilization attempts, very likely led by Russia,” French diplomacy also alerted on Thursday, assuring that “the call for the so-called protection by Moscow of separatists devoid of any autonomy is a known scenario.”
Should Ukraine be worried?
By threatening intervention in Transnistria, Russia is forcing Ukraine to “position men on the border”, indicates Ulrich Bounat.
The expert believes, however, that this “does not represent a very significant risk”.
“The probability of military action against Ukraine from Transnistria appears extremely low”, with an army that is “poorly equipped” and which is “not ready for war”, he asserts.
As for the 1,500 Russian soldiers positioned in the region, “they have been completely isolated for years, because Ukraine has banned flights over its airspace,” underlines the researcher, who adds that they are “not seriously trained » and do not benefit from “logistical support”.