As of: March 1, 2024, 2:06 p.m
By: Fabian Hartmann
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March 1st marks the beginning of meteorological spring.
This marks the end of the warmest February since measurements began in 1881. Will winter show itself again?
Frankfurt – Meteorologists date the beginning of spring to March 1st.
But what are the weather prospects for the meteorological start of spring in Germany?
Could that be it for this year's winter?
After all, February 2024, with its monthly average of 7.0 degrees, has already gone down in history as the warmest February since measurements began more than 130 years ago.
Or could winter make a late return in March?
March is likely to start off in a similar friendly way to how February ended: on the upcoming first weekend in March, it could bring about a spring-like debut with highs of up to 17 degrees.
According to the German Weather Service (DWD), the reason for this is the desert storm Scirocco.
On Wednesday, the front of a low pressure area over Libya transported not only a lot of desert dust but also some warm air into the southern Mediterranean region.
A massive low pressure area over Western Europe will carry the Saharan dust towards Germany on Friday with a southerly flow from the Mediterranean region.
In addition to unusually mild temperatures with highs of up to 17 degrees, desert dust could also reach Germany - it is expected that it could then spread mainly over the eastern half.
Beginning of spring on March 1st – these are the weather forecasts
According to the DWD, Friday will start predominantly cloudy in the southwest and with rain in some areas.
However, over the course of the day these can move eastwards into western Bavaria.
In the rest of the country, once the fog clears up, it will sometimes become more, sometimes less cloudy over the course of the day.
In addition, it remains mostly dry.
The maximum temperatures range from 8 degrees in Baden-Württemberg to 14 in the middle and east of the country.
From East Saxony to Berlin it will be 13 to 16 degrees.
In addition, there are weak winds in the east and south of Germany, but there are moderate and sometimes gusty winds, especially in the west.
On Saturday night the lows will be between -1 and 8 degrees.
Precipitation from southeast Bavaria can also reach Saxony and Western Pomerania.
Small amounts of precipitation are also possible in western Germany.
Regionally up to ten hours per week - the forecasts for the first weekend in March
Saturday begins cloudy and wet in the east; from eastern Bavaria to Western Pomerania, heavy clouds and rain are expected in many cases.
However, they could decrease as the day progresses.
In the remaining parts of the country it will likely remain partly cloudy and dry.
Scattered showers in the west in the evening.
Highs 11 to a maximum of 17 degrees, at the sea and in the higher mountains around 9 degrees.
In addition, weak, moderate winds from the south to southeast are expected in the west.
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In a wide strip in between, for example from Lake Constance via Hesse to Holstein, it remains dry, where up to 10 hours of sunshine are expected regionally.
It will be a very mild day with highs of 8 degrees in the Schnee Eifel and up to 17 degrees in the central Neckar area.
On Sunday, after regional fog fields have cleared up, it will remain largely dry with sunshine and often only loose clouds.
In the west and southwest there are more clouds than sun, but only on the border with Benelux and France does some rain occasionally fall.
The maximum values are between 10 degrees in the Eifel and 18 degrees on the Neckar and Main.
Will spring finally take hold, or will winter return late again?
Does the first weekend in March with its mild temperatures finally bring this year's winter to a close?
Incidentally, this could then be remembered as the third warmest winter ever in Germany since weather records began in 1881.
A look at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long-term temperature anomalies for the monthly average in March reveals that temperatures could be slightly higher than is otherwise the case in March.
This also applies to the amount of precipitation.
According to the NOAA, significantly higher amounts of precipitation are expected in March than is usual in March, especially in Portugal, the middle of Spain, large parts of France and in the northern regions of Italy.
The affected regions could benefit from this - because it is generally too dry in many parts of southern Europe.
For a longer-term forecast of March weather in Germany, it is worth taking a look at the temperature deviations from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
According to him, the first week of March from March 4th to 11th in Germany is likely to be moderate and “normally mild,” as meteorologist Kathy Schrey from
wetter.net
reveals.
And in the second week of March (March 11-18, 2024) it is likely to continue to be similarly mild and moderate, as is usual for mid-March.
Winter return not out of the question – meteorologist advises: “Have winter jackets handy”
However, Germany could face a real change in the weather in the third week of March (March 18th to 25th).
Then frosty cold air masses could flow into Germany from the far north of Scandinavia - and bring wintry weather back to the country.
According to the ECMWF long-term model, this forecast is at least very likely.
So is it still too early to declare this year's winter over?
According to Wetter.net meteorologist Schrey, it would be a hasty conclusion: “According to the ECMWF model, it would not be worth putting the winter jackets in the closet first,” she says.
The Wetter.net moderator advises not to banish winter coats from your clothing repertoire for March.
She advises that you continue to keep winter coats on hand, even if the weather on the approaching weekend with spring-like warm temperatures tempts you to wear lighter clothing.
(fh)