As of: March 1, 2024, 5:24 a.m
By: Simon Schröder
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Press
Split
According to a current analysis, Russia could supply its army with sufficient military equipment for up to three years.
How is Ukraine positioned?
Moscow - Russia's losses are up to 315,000 soldiers, according to an estimate by a US intelligence report.
At the same time, it was said that Russia's military modernization had been set back by up to 18 years, as
Reuters
reported.
The question arises as to how long Russia can hold out in the Ukraine war.
When will Vladimir Putin run out of soldiers and military equipment?
Tanks on the Ukrainian front
At the moment, the Russian war economy seems to be able to compensate for the worn out material.
According to research by
ZDF
, Russia cannot increase its current combat power - but supplies are sufficient to maintain the current troop strength.
Tanks are currently a major point of wear for Russia.
Although Russia can rely on a huge stock of old Soviet machines, these must be modernized and refurbished in order to be suitable for use at the front.
And even the stockpile from Soviet days cannot endlessly compensate for losses.
Russia's losses: Putin loses more tanks than he started with © IMAGO/SNA/Stanislav Krasilnikov
Russia's production limit reached - supply still possible for two to three years in the Ukraine war?
Russia lost more tanks in the Ukraine war than the active tank fleet had at the start of the attack in February 2022, writes
ZDF
.
Russia can send 80 to 120 tanks to the front per month as compensation, although only 15 to 20 of them are new.
The rest are modernized Soviet vehicles from the Cold War.
According to current estimates, this production speed cannot be increased; Russia has reached its maximum tank output.
The two tank factories, one in Nizhny Tagil for new production and one in Chita for tank repairs, are at full capacity.
Building new plants would be theoretically possible, but would take years.
At the current rate of attrition, Russia could theoretically hold out for another two to three years and maintain their current level of supply to the front.
“Myth” that Russia has endless resources for the Ukraine war
Military expert Nico Lange gave his assessment of Russian supplies in a “today”
interview
: “We have to be careful when assessing resources so that we don't always repeat this myth that Russia has an infinite number of soldiers and in the end they are much stronger and Ukraine can “Don’t win.” This “myth” runs through the entire war.
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Russia cannot send its entire tank fleet to Ukraine; there must always be a reserve for defense.
How high this is, whether 10 percent of the armed forces or 20 percent, is not known.
However, it is certain that Russia will not send every single tank and howitzer available to the front.
The crucial question, according to Lange, is: “When will the Russian attack come to a standstill, when will the Russian resources for these attacks be used up.”
Ukraine had to give up Avdiivka
But Ukraine also has supply problems.
There is currently a shortage of ammunition and bullets; on February 17, Ukraine had to give up the bitterly contested city of Avdiivka.
The West's ammunition depots are also emptying.
Ukraine is worried about the US aid package of around $60 billion, which Republicans are currently blocking in the House of Representatives.
Not uncommon on the Ukrainian front: a destroyed Russian army tank in the Kiev region.
(Archive image) © Sergei Chuzavkov/dpa
It is difficult to assess how accurate the figures for new and existing vehicles are on both sides.
Unlike losses in the Russian Black Sea Fleet or Russian fighter jets, precise information about the remaining inventory of the Russian land forces is somewhat more obscure.
“Almost used up”: Military expert sees resources from the beginning of the Ukraine war at an end
Richard Barrons, a British military expert, summed up the current situation in the Ukraine war in an
Associated Press
interview : “As things stand, neither side has won.
Neither side lost.
Neither side is even close to giving up.
And both sides have all but used up the manpower and equipment with which they started the war.”
Ukrainian soldiers work on a Leopard main battle tank at the Bundeswehr base in Klietz as part of their training.
© Klaus-Dietmar Gabbert/dpa
However, Ukraine has an advantage over Russia when it comes to training its soldiers.
Ukraine can draw on extensive military expertise through the West and can also train its soldiers externally in Germany and Europe.
The Bundeswehr, for example, wants to train a further 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers in 2024, as the
ARD
“Tagesschau” reports.
To date, a total of 40,000 military personnel have been trained in Europe and trained on Western equipment.
In Germany, the Ukrainians receive training on self-propelled howitzers, the Marder tank, and the Leopard 1 and 2, among other things. Where Russia relies on quantity, the West hopes that the quality of the soldiers can also make the difference in the Ukraine war.
(SiSchr)