As of: March 1, 2024, 4:59 p.m
By: Fabian Hartmann
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The winter of 2023/24 was surprisingly warm.
But what happens next in March?
Has spring arrived, or is winter showing up again?
Munich – With a monthly average of 7.0 degrees, February 2024 is considered the warmest of its kind since weather measurements began more than 130 years ago.
This week it has now left Germany with double-digit temperatures.
But was that already the end of winter 2023/2024?
Or will he show up late again in March?
First of all, March is starting off in a similarly friendly way to how February ended: the coming weekend is likely to attract spring-like temperatures of up to 17 degrees across almost the entire country.
According to the German Weather Service
(DWD) , the reason for this is
the so-called Scirocco.
On Wednesday, the desert storm transported heat to the Mediterranean region through the front of a low pressure area over Libya, along with numerous desert dust.
On Friday (March 1st) a strong low pressure area will form over Western Europe, which will tap into the dusty air from the Mediterranean region with a southerly flow and direct it towards Germany.
In addition to the exceptionally mild weather with highs of up to 17 degrees from Friday, Sahara dust could also reach Germany, which will spread particularly over the eastern half.
These are the weather forecasts for the meteorological start of spring on March 1st
According to the DWD
, Friday starts
in the southwest with dense clouds and patchy rain, which can extend eastward into western Bavaria over the course of the day.
In the rest of the country, once the fog clears up, it will sometimes become more, sometimes less cloudy over the course of the day.
It also stays dry.
The maximum temperatures range from 8 degrees in Baden-Württemberg to 14 in the middle and east of the country.
From East Saxony to Berlin at 13 to 16 degrees.
Slightly windy in the east and south, moderate and sometimes gusty southern wind, especially in the west.
On Saturday night the lows will be between -1 and 8 degrees.
Precipitation from southeast Bavaria can also reach Saxony and Western Pomerania.
A few drops are also possible in the west.
This is what the weather will be like on the first weekend in March
Saturday begins cloudy and wet in the east; from eastern Bavaria to Western Pomerania, heavy clouds and rain are expected in many cases.
However, they could decrease as the day progresses.
In the remaining parts of the country it will likely remain partly cloudy and dry.
Scattered showers in the west in the evening.
Highs 11 to a maximum of 17 degrees, at the sea and in the higher mountains around 9 degrees.
In addition, weak, moderate winds from the south to southeast are expected in the west.
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In a wide strip in between, for example from Lake Constance via Hesse to Schleswig-Holstein, it will remain dry, with up to 10 hours of sunshine expected regionally.
It will be a very mild day with highs of 8 degrees in the Schnee Eifel and up to 17 degrees in the central Neckar area.
On Sunday, after regional fog fields have cleared up, it will remain largely dry with sunshine and often only loose clouds.
In the west and southwest there are more clouds than sun, but only on the border with Benelux and France does some rain occasionally fall.
The maximum values are between 10 degrees in the Eifel and 18 degrees on the Neckar and Main.
Is spring finally coming or is winter coming again?
Does the first weekend in March with its mild temperatures finally bring this year's winter to a close?
This could then be remembered as the third warmest winter in Germany since weather records began in 1881.
First snowdrops © IMAGO/André Maerz
A look at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) long-term monthly average temperature anomalies for March reveals that temperatures could be slightly higher than they typically are in March.
This also applies to the amount of precipitation.
According to the NOAA, significantly higher amounts of precipitation are expected in March than is usual in March, especially in Portugal, the middle of Spain, large parts of France and northern Italy.
Southern European countries could benefit from this - because they generally have to struggle with drought.
For a longer-term forecast of March weather in Germany, it is worth taking a look at the temperature deviations from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
According to him, the first week of March from March 4th to 11th in Germany is likely to be moderate and “normally mild,” as meteorologist Kathy Schrey from
Wetter.net
comments.
And in the second week of March (March 11-18, 2024) it is likely to continue to be similarly mild and moderate, as is usual for mid-March.
The return of winter cannot be ruled out – meteorologist advises: “Have winter jackets handy”
However, the third week of the month from March 18th to 25th could bring a real change in the weather.
According to the ECMWF model, cold air masses from the far north of Scandinavia could then flow into Germany - bringing with them frosty winter temperatures.
So is it still too early to declare the end of winter 2023/24?
“According to the ECMWF model, it would not be worth putting the winter jackets in the closet first,” says
Wetter.net
meteorologist Schrey.
She advises not to mothball winter coats for now, but to keep them on hand, even if the weather turns out to be mild like spring, as it was this weekend.
“Winter isn’t completely gone yet.
And maybe he’ll scratch his hooves again,” emphasizes meteorologist Schrey.
(Fabian Hartmann)