A future surge in prices at the pump?
Russia has decided to ban gasoline exports from this Friday, March 1, for a period of six months.
This decision intended to
“stabilize”
prices on the domestic market could legitimize, on paper, fears about the supply of black gold.
In 2022, the outbreak of war in Ukraine and all the consequences that resulted from it - the sanctions against Moscow for example - caused the price of oil to soar like never before.
And this for a simple reason: commodity markets do not appreciate uncertainty but also, and above all, because Russia is one of the main producers and exporters of oil in the world.
The fact remains that there is no need for concern today in France.
Europe no longer imports - in theory - crude Russian oil, any more than diesel or gasoline, due to an embargo decided after the start of the war in Ukraine.
In volume terms,
“this will therefore have no impact on the supply of fuels in France”
, assures Olivier Gantois, president of Ufip Énergies et Mobilités.
But a drop in the volume placed on the market could, through a domino effect, cause world prices to inflate.
“When these announcements are taken seriously, they tend to boost the price of a barrel instantly
,” points out Francis Pousse, the representative of the owner-operators of gas stations at the CNPA.
However,
“the market has not yet flinched”
, observes Olivier Gantois, who points to a barrel of crude oil stable at 83 dollars.
Above all, Russia seems to want to guard against the neutralization of part of its gasoline production capacities by Ukrainian attacks rather than seeking
“to create panic on the markets”
, analyzes Jean-Pierre Favennec, energy expert.
A sluggish request that argues in favor of a status quo
It is above all the behavior of other major exporters, such as Saudi Arabia, which could change the situation, underlines Francis Pousse.
“Will they choose to increase their production quotas or raise prices?
Not sure that the state of the world economy will allow them to choose the second option: demand being a little sluggish, they have to be careful.”
The three experts are rather reassuring.
“It’s only a suspension of gasoline exports, not crude oil,”
emphasizes Jean-Pierre Favennec.
It’s a lot less annoying.”
Especially since Russia's exports are only a drop of oil on the gasoline market, Olivier Gantois recalls:
“What they export most of all is diesel.”
The Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Energy, Alexander Novak, assured that a moratorium on diesel exports - as was the case at the end of 2023 - is not on the agenda.