TOKYO – The economy is now in recession after barely growing for decades.
The population continues to shrink and last year births fell to their lowest point.
The country's politics appear
frozen
as one party virtually maintains its grip on power no matter how scandal-tainted and unpopular it becomes.
But do not worry.
This is Japan, where
all bad news is relative.
Look around.
There are few signs of social discord that might be expected in a place with trends like Japan's, such as littering, potholes or picketing.
The country remains
remarkably stable
and cohesive, with little sense of impending catastrophe.
Cherry blossoms, seen here in a Tokyo park last year, are one of the many constants of Japanese life.
Cherry blossoms, seen here in a Tokyo park last year, are one of the many constants of Japanese life.
Photo Issei Kato/Reuters
That equanimity reflects a mentality of not having to make changes:
“
Shouganai
” (“cannot be helped”) is a kind of national refrain.
Status quo
It's easy to see why people can be indifferent.
Unemployment is low, trains run on time, and cherry trees bloom every spring.
Tourists are flooding into shrines and shopping districts, and the stock market has hit a record high.
Even after a little inflation, you can get a bowl of ramen for less than $7, or a multi-course lunch for about $12.
Housing is generally affordable even in Tokiy and everyone is covered by national health insurance.
Crime is low: in 2022, there were
only three gun murders in all of Japan
.
If you forget your cell phone at a restaurant, chances are it will be there when you return.
"I'm very happy with my living conditions," said Chihiro Tsujimoto, 26, a classical percussionist who had left a movie theater with his sister in Chofu, western Tokyo, last week.
The Japanese, he said, "have given up and are quite happy as long as their life is full and good."
"I guess Japan is at peace," he added.
"So the young generation doesn't feel like they need to change this country."
That numbing sense of calm is intensified by an outside world plagued by wars and social challenges.
"I often take business trips to the United States and Europe and feel that the Japanese society and system are very stable compared to other countries with various problems such as immigrants, high crime rates and unrest," said Hisashi Miwa, 65. , who works for a chemical company.
manufacturer and was buying toilet paper in Setagaya, also in western Tokyo.
Still, beneath Japan's placid surface, many deep-rooted problems persist.
With its intense work culture and social pressures, Japan is among the unhappiest developed countries
,
according to a UN-backed annual report, and suicide is a major concern.
Gender inequality
is
deeply rooted and slowly changing, and the poverty rate among single-parent households is one of the highest among wealthy nations.
Rural areas are rapidly emptying and the aging population will increasingly increase the burden on pensions and care.
Next year, nearly 1 in 5 people in Japan will be 75 or older, a phenomenon that will increasingly expose
labor shortages
in a country struggling to accept and integrate immigrants.
Service gaps are already emerging at some of the country's most cherished institutions.
“It takes four or five days to receive a letter,” said Sayuri Shirai, a professor of policy management at Keio University, referring to Japan's postal service, which used to reliably deliver letters a day after they were sent.
When you have problems with cable TV or other utilities, he said, “sometimes you want to ask questions on the phone, but there are no phone-related services anymore.”
"I can really see that they don't have people," Shirai said.
"The quality of service is not so good anymore."
Drawbacks like that, however, are more of an
irritation
than a sign of impending social collapse.
Japan's decline is gradual and in some ways barely noticeable after the country rose to its wealth in the decades after World War II.
The economy, now the world's fourth largest, after falling below Germany's this month, ebbs and flows but has largely endured a national debt ratio that is the highest in the world.
The population falls by about half a percent a year, but Tokyo is still the most populous city in the world, people queue for an hour to get a modern donut and reservations at the best restaurants have to be made weeks in advance.
Prime ministers may come and go, but they are replaceable emissaries of the status quo.
"I think everyone knows what's coming, but it's so slow that it's very difficult to somehow make the case for huge change," said Mieko Nakabayashi, a politics professor at Waseda University in Tokyo.
Even those who think Japan could use a shake-up are more resigned than radicalized.
"I thought the Japanese were a little smarter, but our economy, which was once said to be first-class, is now
second- or third-rate
, and our government may not even be fourth- or fifth-rate," Fuchi said. Beppu, 76, a retired hotel worker, was walking near Yokohama Station last week.
He said he felt sorry for his children and grandchildren and the future that awaited them.
"At the end of the day, it is a democracy," he said.
"So I guess the level of the government reflects the level of the citizens."
That government, for almost the entire postwar era, has been led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
The party's disapproval ratings are now very high, according to a newspaper poll, the highest since 1947.
But even when people are frustrated with the LDP, ultimately “they don't care much, as long as they can survive and everyday life isn't chaos.”
Too bad,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, a member of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo.
"That's why the PLD's policy is very stable."
Current disapproval ratings reflect
public exasperation
over a financial scandal that has engulfed Japanese media but has been too arcane for most of the general public to follow in detail.
Allegations began to surface late last fall that various factions within the LDP had failed to record the full amount of proceeds from ticket sales for political fundraising events.
In some cases, it appeared that members of parliament were receiving
kickbacks
from some of the sales, and prosecutors have charged three lawmakers, accusing them of violations of the Political Funds Control Law.
However, unlike other countries where politicians have been accused of extravagant acts of corruption, the Japanese media has unearthed relatively tame evidence of campaign gifts and dinners.
Some news reports suggested that a lawmaker may have used political funds to buy books, including thousands of copies of a title he wrote himself.
With the political opposition in disarray, it seems likely that the LDP will survive another of its many goals of its own.
One reason: Voters simply aren't very connected.
“I don't know who my mayor is or I don't read the news much,” Tsujimoto said.
"I just watch the news on the Internet to see things like when a new baby of some animal is born in a zoo."
c.2024 The New York Times Company