Not one less.
Javier Milei
assures that he keeps intact the support of
56%
that made him President in the runoff.
In a normal country, the data should not attract so much attention.
The libertarian, in short, barely makes it past
three months in office
.
But if some variables are reviewed, such as the almost 50 points of accumulated inflation, the number comes into debate.
The dangerous thing for Milei, according to his own story, is that the worst did not happen.
At least that's how they convey it in the Government.
The data, revealed by Clarín in mid-January, remains intact in the libertarian schedule.
"March and April are going to be the worst months
," a high official source repeats to this newspaper.
In these 61 days that start today, the rise in prices, much higher than salaries, would be combined with a strong recession.
There is talk of losses in purchasing power in the order of 40%.
That is the size of the cut that the new government implemented
.
For this reason, the social protest will be observed with different eyes: "We did not worry about the first strikes, when we first took office, but now we will have to be attentive because we understand that people will suffer the worst part of the adjustment."
The costs of the recession
Days ago, an official was leaving his building, in a typical middle-class neighborhood in the West of the City, and
a neighbor almost rebuked him
: "Are you going to do something? Because I have a business and I'm going bankrupt."
The leader swears that they are doing more than "something", but he was not clear enough about what the final costs of the recession would be to answer his neighbor.
For now, the Government believes that a
symbolic break
will come
when inflation returns to a monthly digit
.
After 25.5% in December and 20.6% in January, the expectation is that February will be less than 15. This is suggested by the private consultants who brought their data to the Casa Rosada, where they prefer to wait for the number anyway. Indec official.
"9% will continue to be horrible, but at least the light is beginning to be seen at the end of the tunnel," the ruling party consoles themselves.
And
they add more data
: "We
see that 56% continue to support us
. What happens is that since the other 44% is very noisy and intense, it seems that we lost support.
Expectations also rise
. In December, only 20% expected an improvement in the coming months; in January, it grew to 30% and in February to 40%".
True so far, according to half a dozen surveys that
Clarín
saw in recent weeks.
It is true that the Government maintains an important core of support, but the bulk of the studies analyzed by this newspaper show
polarization in equal parts
.
50 and 50.
Furthermore, although in minimal portions, they began to appear "disenchanted" with Milei.
People who voted for him and would not do so again today
.
In favor of the Government, it is also true that optimism is growing regarding the fight against inflation.
In public, the President seeks to generate expectations.
"Inflation will continue to fall sharply and the exit from the (exchange) stocks is close
," he said in his message to the Legislative Assembly this Friday.
They are careers that run in parallel and are closely related. Support for the President, recognized by officials, opponents and the red circle in general, depends on prices. If the latter goes down, the former grows. And vice versa.
More adjustment, caste and the role of Congress
Despite the voices asking for agreements and consensus, Milei and his intimate management core - his sister Karina, advisor Santiago Caputo and Chief of Staff Nicolás Posse - are
convinced that the fight against "caste" will continue to bear fruit
.
This intention was expressed in the speech before Congress with the announcement of a "package of anti-caste laws."
In practice,
it means more adjustment
.
The Government says that they are
late in reducing the
State plant.
And that clashes with the story.
"It's true that we still have people from La Cámpora and gnocchi everywhere," he summarizes.
A senior official who landed in La Rosada in chainsaw mode
acknowledges that he is "60 days late" in his pruning plan
: "I have already removed many, but due to bureaucratic issues and internal quilombos I have been delayed."
He promises that as soon as he can he will resume the advance.
The Government also plans to continue with cuts to the provinces.
They mention about
"20 trust funds"
that they have yet to audit and could cut.
Forecast of
new fights with the governors
.
Regarding this dispute, in La Rosada they note a fact "that journalists are not seeing well."
They refer to the impact on the economy of the political fight
.
"The governors said they were going to cut off gas and oil, and nothing happened in the markets," they review and note it as "a sign of confidence in our program."
Something
similar
, they say, happened
with the Omnibus Law
.
The economic team was preparing for a large jump in the exchange rate when the project fell through and it did not happen.
These results feed the duo that commands the economy and
usually receives mixed praise: Javier Milei and Luis Caputo
.
The President values the adjustment proposals that the minister brings to him.
And "Toto" returns a high-end pampering;
He says that the libertarian is doing what "Mauricio (for Macri) did not dare."