The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) believes that
El Niño
, a natural pattern that causes water surface temperatures in tropical areas of the Pacific to rise, peaked in December and is now already in a phase of gradual weakening.
“But it will continue to affect the global climate in the coming months, fueling the heat trapped by greenhouse gases” derived from human activities, warns this organization linked to the United Nations.
Last February, in fact, is shaping up to be the warmest February on record.
The previous record occurred in 2016, coinciding with another major
El Niño
episode .
WMO calculations indicate that “there is about a 60% chance of
El Niño
persisting during March-May and an 80% chance of neutral conditions [neither
El Niño
nor the opposite phenomenon,
La Niña
] from April to June".
El Niño
occurs periodically—it occurs every two to seven years—and usually lasts nine to 12 months.
“It is a natural climate pattern associated with the warming of the ocean surface in the tropical, central and eastern Pacific,” explains the WMO.
And it has influence on weather conditions and storms in different parts of the world.
The current episode began in June and contributed to 2023 closing as the warmest year on record so far.
However, it was not the main cause;
The greenhouse gases emitted by the world economy are what have led the planet to a continuous increase in temperatures that has become more pronounced over the last decade.
Celeste Saulo, Secretary General of the WMO, summarized it this way in a statement this Tuesday: “Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record, and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record.
“El Niño
has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit.”
Pacific surface temperatures in the tropics have been above normal, clearly indicating the reign of
El Niño
.
But, as Saulo warns, “sea surface temperatures in other parts of the world have been persistently and unusually high over the past 10 months,” something that is not linked to that climate pattern.
On average, sea surface temperatures across the planet in January 2024 were by far the highest on record for the same month.
“This is worrying and cannot be explained by
El Niño
alone ,” adds the head of the WMO.
Last January was the warmest January on Earth as a whole since reliable records began in the mid-19th century (although paleoclimatic scientists maintain that we have to go back several millennia to find a planet as warm as the current one).
And it is likely that the same thing happened this February, as can be seen from the data provided by the Climate Pulse tool of the Copernicus climate change service of the European Union.
This tool provides a daily average temperature that indicates that this past February has been around 0.2 degrees Celsius warmer than 2016, which held the previous record.
The first two weeks of February were especially warm across the planet, as reflected by Climate Pulse data.
But the second part of the month they have softened somewhat, although they have continued to be among the highest in historical records.
In any case, these data must still be reviewed and verified by Copernicus in the coming days.
Temperature anomalies in February 2024 compared to the reference period 1991-2020.
Copernicus
In addition to contributing to rising global temperatures,
El Niño
is associated with increased rainfall and flooding in the Horn of Africa and the southern United States, and with “unusually dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia and southern Africa,” notes the WMO.
This latest episode has exacerbated drought in northern South America and has also contributed to drier and warmer conditions in parts of southern Africa.
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