David Desgouilles is a columnist at
Marianne
.
He published
Dérapage
(ed. du Rocher, 2017) and
Their lost wars
(ed. du Rocher, 2019).
To discover
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LE FIGARO. - The former president of the Socialist Republic, who makes numerous trips to the field, has become the third favorite political figure of the French and – by far – the first on the left. His former “spin doctor”, Gaspard Gantzer, thinks that “his re-election in 2027 is possible”. Is this return to the forefront of the political scene credible?
David DESGOUILLES. -
François Hollande is affected by the “ex” syndrome, of which Valéry Giscard d'Estaing and more recently Nicolas Sarkozy were victims.
All these presidents left the Élysée at a younger age than that of General de Gaulle, who returned to power in 1958. And they know that they were able to one day win the presidential election.
So they think they have a chance to come back.
In a way, it's human.
The problem is that, for the three protagonists, they are really out of step with reality, that is to say in relation to the way the French see them.
Universal suffrage plays the role of the guillotine on the neck of the king, in our republican monarchy.
This gap with reality also extends to those very close to us, who have also experienced victory and power.
What room for maneuver does François Hollande have, largely “blacklisted” by the Socialist Party, several members of which believe that “in no world could François Hollande be a candidate”? Will he have to run under the banner of another party?
The PS has adopted a strategy of alliance on the left, which François Hollande condemns.
Certainly, during the last two congresses, this mattered little for Olivier Faure in the face of those who want a strategy of autonomy.
However, the refocusing of the party is not on the agenda, especially since Raphaël Glucksmann will probably obtain a much higher score in the European elections than Anne Hidalgo in the last presidential election and that the municipal elections remain a election where the PS – like LR – experienced good results against competitors RN and Renaissance.
Like all former presidents, he enjoys a good popularity rating precisely because no one sees him capable of returning.
David Desgouilles
There would therefore be the solitary solution for François Hollande, who could benefit from the breakup of the macronie, due to the impossibility of the president to be a candidate.
He could then give back to Emmanuel Macron.
Here again, we are more in the “Coué method” than in the design of a real political strategy.
Is there a political space today between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Emmanuel Macron?
As long as the PS remains in an alliance strategy with Jean-Luc Mélenchon, there is none.
On the other hand, 2027 presents itself differently since Emmanuel Macron will no longer be a candidate.
A space can open up if the candidate of the current majority comes from the right, like Édouard Philippe or Gérald Darmanin.
But in this case, will the French want to recall François Hollande?
And even among the anti-Nupe socialists, won't there be some who want to believe in their star?
I am thinking of Carole Delga or even the mayor of Montpellier, Michaël Delafosse.
Leaving room for the one who left the Socialist Party in a deplorable state, and who was the only president not to maintain the political conditions to be a candidate for his succession, is unthinkable for any socialist elected official.
François Hollande declared: “For those who are between 18 and 25 years old, I am the president of their childhood. There was Santa Claus and the president. I was the president. I remained sympathetic to them.” Is socialism the preferred political doctrine of young people today?
Does François Hollande want us to remember the nickname he was given, “Mr. Little Jokes”?
So yes, the generation he is talking about did not know the Leonarda affair, nor the betrayal of Florange, nor the confusion over the loss of nationality.
But all other generations remember it.
Like all former presidents, he enjoys a good popularity rating precisely because no one sees him capable of returning.
As far as I'm concerned, the likeable character of my childhood was Casimir.
There is Casimir in François Hollande.
But the French will never elect Casimir.