As of: March 6, 2024, 12:38 p.m
By: Alexandra Heidsiek
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Split
But it's not a horseshoe: Sahra Wagenknecht's new party has just four percent, according to the latest surveys.
There are hardly any former AfD voters.
Berlin - With her call for a referendum on pensions, Sahra Wagenknecht and her new alliance are currently vying for the voters' favor.
But despite the pithy headlines, the mood hasn't really caught on yet.
Because after an initial surge, the party named after itself is now slipping back below the five percent hurdle.
This emerges from the latest RTL/ntv trend barometer.
In addition to the general approval of the party, the survey conducted by Forsa also analyzed the social structure of the electorate for the first time - and the result is striking.
If the Wagenknecht party wanted to attract right-wing votes, it failed
In the media, the BSW was always considered to have high voter potential, especially among AfD voters.
This is no coincidence: in its program for the EU elections, the Wagenknecht party is calling for peace negotiations with Russia.
She also wants to restrict the EU's powers, including in climate policy.
Wagenknecht also advocates a strict migration policy.
So a classic fishing on the right edge?
Party leader Sahra Wagenknecht speaks during Political Ash Wednesday at the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht party event.
© picture alliance/dpa |
Luke Barth
Maybe, but without success: According to Forsa/Trendbarometer, only five percent of current BSW supporters voted for the AfD in the last federal election.
Instead, more than half of the new votes for the BSW come from the left spectrum: from SPD (26 percent), Left (21 percent) and Green voters (10 percent).
According to the analysis, Wagenknecht's new core clientele consists of left-wing East German pensioners.
BSW splits the voter base of the left-wing parties
There are also significant differences between BSW supporters and AfD immigrants in terms of social background.
According to the trend barometer, more than two-thirds of men agree with the AfD; at the BSW it is exactly half.
BSW voters are more likely to have studied or graduated from high school (61 percent compared to 41 percent), but the proportion of employed people is larger among new voters for the AfD (63 percent compared to 44 percent).
The biggest discrepancy can be found in political self-assessment: 54 percent of Wagenknecht fans consider themselves to be left-wing, while 45 percent of AfD immigrants consider themselves to be right-wing.
Overall, among those surveyed, the voters of the new Wagenknecht party position themselves on the political spectrum in the same way as the supporters of the SPD: They consider themselves to be slightly less left-wing than Green Party voters and significantly less left-wing than the supporters of the Left.
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The AfD therefore hardly has to fear any new competition – unlike the established left-wing forces.
Lars Klingbeil (SPD) has already expressed skepticism towards the BSW due to its Euro-critical stance.
Further fragmentation of the more socially progressive factions in the Bundestag could lead to coalitions of three or more parties becoming the norm in the future.
Especially because the Union is speaking out against more and more collaboration: In addition to the AfD and the Left, the Greens are also on the blacklist in many places.
The BSW has not yet sparked any enthusiasm among the CDU either.
Having to find compromises with even more actors makes governing more difficult - and could ultimately play into the AfD's hands.
(uh)