As of: March 6, 2024, 5:30 p.m
By: Christiane Kühl
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Press
Split
The three Baltic states fear they could be Russia's next victims after Ukraine.
Putin's rhetoric is already suspiciously similar to his speeches shortly before the start of the war of aggression.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is choosing increasingly harsh words.
The Baltic states are “declaring tens of thousands of people subhuman, depriving them of their most basic rights and subjecting them to hate speech,” Putin recently claimed, for example, at the opening of a monument to civilian victims of the German National Socialists’ terror.
He mentioned the Baltics in the same breath as Ukraine as an example of the rise of Nazism - and concluded with the ominous announcement: "We are doing everything, everything, to stop Nazism and finally eradicate it." Putin had previously ordered the deportation of Latvia almost 1,000 ethnic Russians were accused.
They are words that were reminiscent of Putin's rhetoric shortly before the invasion of Ukraine.
But why Putin didn't mention the Baltics at all in his state of the nation speech on Thursday is uncertain.
He didn't even mention Transnistria - although the part of EU candidate Moldova, which is dominated by pro-Russian separatists, had asked for Moscow's protection just a day earlier.
Just as the rebels in the Ukrainian Donbass allegedly once did.
But one thing is clear: Putin's silence does not mean the all-clear for NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
The threat is real and is taken seriously in NATO.
There have been increasing signs for some time that Putin has the three Baltic states in his sights.
Like Ukraine, they were part of the Soviet Union until 1992.
And just like in Ukraine, Russian minorities live there.
The majority population in all three countries vehemently rejects Russia's war of aggression.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Balts have been protesting against Russia.
Here a man shows Putin as a killer at a demonstration in front of the Moscow embassy in Riga, Latvia, on the occasion of the murder of Alexei Navalny.
© GINTS IVUSKANS/AFP
Putin renews plans to increase troops on the Baltic border
In his speech, Putin said only vaguely: “It is seriously necessary to strengthen troop formations in the western strategic direction in order to neutralize the threats associated with the recent expansion of NATO to the east: the admission of Sweden and Finland into the alliance .” On the Russian side of the border with Estonia, posters can be seen proclaiming: “Russia’s borders – they never end.”
On the Estonian side, this border is equipped with the latest camera and sensor technology to immediately notice any sign of Russian military actions.
During military exercises in the summer of 2022, Russia simulated attacks on Estonian cities.
“They point their weapons at us, enter all the data, but don’t pull the trigger,” General Martin Herem, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, said in an interview in January.
He compared the actions to those of a thug starting a fight on the street: “They are trying to create a pretext.” In its current annual report, the Estonian foreign secret service expects Russia to increase the number of troops along NATO in the coming years limit will increase significantly.
Estonia expects an acute threat in three to five years
The three Baltic countries warned of Moscow's aggression long before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Estonia does not currently feel acutely threatened, said Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna during a visit to Warsaw in mid-February.
But Russia could prepare a “test for NATO” within the next three to four years.
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In its report, Estonia's secret service assumes that once the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will be able to rebuild its military apparatus to such an extent within three to five years that it poses a direct threat to NATO.
“We have to understand that the Russian war machine has gained full speed.” This affects both the production capacities and the mentality in the country, said Tsahkna.
“Because Putin now controls everything.” Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has also warned of Russian attacks on a NATO country in five to eight years.
High defense spending in the Baltics
The three Baltic states all spend at least 2.5 percent of gross domestic product on defense - as does neighboring Finland, which also borders Russia.
This means they exceed NATO’s two percent target.
Neighboring Poland also feels vulnerable and even spends 3.9 percent on the military.
No wonder: the Suwalki Gap, which is only 65 kilometers long, between Poland and Lithuania is considered a sore point for NATO.
The area separates the Russian exclave Kaliningrad from Russia's ally Belarus.
A Russian attack could connect Kaliningrad with Belarus and thus cut off the Baltics from NATO.
NATO's worst case scenarios for a possible Russian attack on the alliance expect the first escalation to be either an attack on Estonia or the Suwalki Gap.
The Baltic countries are therefore planning joint defense installations on their borders with Russia and Belarus.
From 2025, a system of bunkers and defense lines will be created.
The three countries are also preparing their societies for emergencies.
More than 3,300 shelters have been created in Lithuania since 2022, in subways or schools, for example.
More are planned or under construction.
The Baltic states are among Kiev's strongest supporters, supporting the argument that Ukraine is fighting for all of Europe.
“The Russians are going 'all in'.
They will destroy Ukraine.
And who knows what else?” warned Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis in Brussels last week.
“If Ukraine falls, it will be clear to everyone that we will be next.
Putin doesn't stop.
He can’t stop.”