As of: March 6, 2024, 5:15 a.m
By: Tanja Banner
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The asteroid Apophis is notorious, but is there a possibility that it might still hit Earth?
A research duo takes a closer look.
London - When the asteroid (99942) Apophis was discovered in June 2004, it quickly became clear: it was one of the most dangerous asteroids known.
Finally, there was a probability that the celestial body, which has a diameter of about 350 meters, would hit the Earth.
The asteroid was named after the ancient Egyptian god of chaos, Apophis.
Over the years, the asteroid, which repeatedly comes close to Earth, has been observed extensively and it is now clear: it will not hit Earth.
Around 17 years after its discovery, the space organizations Esa and NASA removed it from their risk lists.
But even if Apophis no longer poses a threat: the “god of chaos” will come very close to Earth, that is certain.
On April 13, 2029, it will approach the Earth to within about 31,000 kilometers - that is closer than many satellites orbit our planet.
However, this encounter does not represent any danger - at most it is an opportunity for science, which can examine the asteroid from close up.
Nevertheless, a research duo apparently wanted to be on the safe side and took another close look at Apophis.
On April 13, 2029, the asteroid Apophis will come within 31,000 kilometers of Earth.
The simulation shows the Earth and its satellite ring (light blue dots).
Apophis' orbit is shown in yellow.
© NASA/JPL Caltech
What happens if Apophis collides with another asteroid?
More precisely: The two researchers Paul Wiegert (University of Western Ontario in London, Canada) and Benjamin Hyatt (University of Waterloo in Canada) analyzed what happens when Apophis collides with another asteroid and its trajectory is changed.
“Given how close Apophis will fly to Earth, there is a risk that a deviation from its current trajectory could bring Apophis closer to impacting us,” says researcher Hyatt, explaining the reasons for the analysis.
“Hypothetically, another asteroid colliding with Apophis could cause such a deflection, which led us to investigate this scenario, unlikely as it may be,” Hyatt said in a statement.
Asteroid Apophis: “God of Chaos” will not hit Earth
The research duo used the orbits of 1.3 million known asteroids in the solar system for their analysis.
“We calculated the orbits of all known asteroids using a detailed computer simulation of our solar system and assessed the possibility of such an unlikely event,” explains Wiegert.
“Fortunately, no such collisions are to be expected.” The research team’s work was published on the preprint server
ArXiv
and accepted for publication in the
Planetary Science Journal
.
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(Symbolic image) © imago/Science Photo Library
But why study an asteroid that researchers assume will definitely not hit Earth?
Wiegert explains it this way: “The asteroid Apophis has fascinated us as a species since its discovery in 2004: it was the first credible threat to our planet from an asteroid.
Even now that we know it will certainly miss us, astronomers remain vigilant.
It's the asteroid we just can't take our eyes off of."
NASA space probe to explore asteroid Apophis
In fact, researchers have been preparing for asteroid Apophis' flyby of Earth for some time now.
Only recently, a space mission was sent in the direction of the “God of Chaos”: After the NASA space probe “Osiris-Rex” delivered the samples it had collected from the asteroid Bennu to Earth, it was renamed “Osiris-Rex”. Apex” (OSIRIS-APophis EXplorer).
It will now fly on to the asteroid Apophis, which it will reach in 2029 and explore for 18 months.
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