As of: March 6, 2024, 3:58 p.m
By: Christian Stör
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Donald Trump wins Super Tuesday.
Everything points to another duel with Joe Biden in the US election in November.
The race is completely open.
Washington, DC – Four years have passed, nothing has changed: The 2024 US election is once again heading towards a duel between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
On Super Tuesday, Trump triumphed in 14 of 15 states and was almost unassailable from his rival Nikki Haley in the US primaries.
The former UN ambassador then dropped out of the Republican presidential nomination race.
The path is now clear for Trump to be nominated; the Democrats consider incumbent Biden to be the candidate anyway.
Both politicians already ran against each other in the presidential election in 2020.
This time, however, the roles would be reversed.
Biden wants to be re-elected as the incumbent in November, Trump would be the challenger.
Neither Biden nor Trump can boast convincing popularity ratings.
However, they are effectively unrivaled in their respective parties.
What happens after Super Tuesday?
The Republican and Democratic primaries will continue until early June.
Afterwards, the two party conferences are on the program.
The respective candidates are officially nominated there.
First up are the Republicans, who will meet from July 15th to 18th in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
The Democrats will hold their convention from August 19th to 22nd in Chicago, Illinois.
After that, the hot phase of the election campaign begins.
This also includes three television debates between the presidential candidates.
These are scheduled for September and October:
Time |
Location |
|---|---|
September 16, 2024 |
San Marcos, Texas |
October 1, 2024 |
Petersburg, Virginia |
October 9, 2024 |
Salt Lake City, Utah |
Is another duel between Biden or Trump finally certain?
A repeat of the 2020 duel is not an enticing prospect for many people in the USA.
Majorities think both 81-year-old Biden and 77-year-old Trump are too old for the job, according to a February poll.
Especially with Biden, who is already the oldest US president in history, his age is a big issue because of his recurring misfires and mix-ups - although Trump also makes such mishaps again and again, most recently during his election campaign appearances at the beginning of March.
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However, Biden has just had his doctor confirm that he is still fit enough for his office.
In this respect, it is difficult to imagine him giving up running for office.
But what if he does experience a serious health crisis?
Then there are two options: If Biden renounces his candidacy before the party conference, the delegates would decide on the candidate.
In that case, the only candidate would be incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris.
Anything else would be difficult to understand in terms of party politics.
But what happens if Biden only withdraws after the party conference?
There is no precedent.
According to
the New York Times,
the decision will then rest with party leader Jaime Harrison and the rest of the party leadership.
What stands between Trump and a nomination?
For Trump, age currently plays a minor role.
Journalist Maggie Haberman believes that only a “catastrophic event” could dissuade him from running for office.
“It would have to be something you can't hide,” says the
New York Times
White House correspondent.
“A prolonged hospital stay or something that happens on stage or in front of a crowd.”
Donald Trump is the big winner in the Republican primaries.
© Evan Vucci/dpa
Basically, it is the charges against Trump that raise the question of whether he can actually run on November 5th.
The fact that the former president is involved in four criminal cases seems to be bothering Republicans less and less.
In post-election polls conducted by data service provider Edison Research on Super Tuesday in California, less than a fifth of respondents said they believed Trump would be unfit to be president if he were convicted of a crime.
And even if Trump were convicted before the election, he would still be allowed to continue running for president.
The US Constitution does not prohibit this case.
But if Trump were to actually drop out as a candidate after the party conference, the 168 members of the party's national organizational committee (Republican National Committee, or RNC for short) would have to think about what to do.
Which votes Trump needs to win against Biden in the US election
Despite their dominance, the primaries also revealed weaknesses.
For Trump, the main priority in the near future will likely be to capture those Republicans who cannot do anything with his polarizing nature and his far-right “Make America Great Again” movement.
Just take a look at a post-election survey by the TV channel
CNN
on Super Tuesday in North Carolina.
Accordingly, 81 percent of those who support Haley said they would not automatically support their party's nominee for president.
Trump also has difficulties among voters with higher levels of education and in urban centers.
Haley was something of a beacon of hope for her.
Trump cannot afford to permanently alienate these groups.
In order to win against Biden in November, Trump depends on these votes.
How much support does Joe Biden have?
As for Trump, Super Tuesday was above all a test for Biden of the mood among his own base.
Many Democrats can't really warm to Biden's candidacy.
Some people think he's too old, others are disappointed because, in their opinion, he hasn't done enough to support minorities or climate protection.
And then there is the left wing.
He struggles with his support for Israel in the Gaza war and his increasingly tough stance on immigration policy.
In fact, Biden was given another lesson on Super Tuesday.
As in the primary elections in Michigan, many voters refused to support him and chose the “Uncommitted” option in protest, i.e. “neutral” or “undecided”.
According to the data service provider Edison, in addition to Muslims, these included many younger Democrats, among others.
Which issues are likely to play the biggest role in the election campaign?
Trump is likely to benefit primarily from his focus on the immigration problem at the border with Mexico.
He has announced a much stricter course to get illegal migration under control.
Post-election surveys showed that many Republicans were particularly concerned about the issue in the primaries.
The dissatisfaction of people in the United States on the issue could give Trump the decisive votes to return to the White House.
The second hot topic is economic policy.
The Democrats never tire of explaining that the economy is doing well and unemployment is comparatively low.
However, the mood on this point remains bad.
In another
Reuters
/Ipsos poll, 39 percent of respondents recently said Trump's economic policies were better than Biden's.
Conversely, it was only 33 percent.
Curiously, post-election polls from Super Tuesday showed that many people rate their own economic situation as "stable" while at the same time they generally see the situation as miserable.
Who will be the favorite in the US election in November: Trump or Biden?
The only thing that is certain is that it will once again be a neck-and-neck race.
This is also shown by a look at the last two elections.
In the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton received almost three million more votes than Trump nationwide, but due to the electoral system only around 107,000 mutes were decisive in the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
It was even closer four years later.
Although Biden was ahead by seven million votes nationwide, in the end it was the razor-thin victories in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin that helped Biden win.
In the end, just 42,918 votes made the difference.
However, the current polls are currently clearly in favor of Donald Trump.
In particular, a highly rated survey commissioned by the
New York Times
recently caused a stir.
In the national survey, 48 percent of respondents said they wanted to vote for Trump, while only 43 percent said they wanted to vote for Biden.
According to the survey, 97 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2020 want to vote for him again.
For Biden this is only 83 percent.
(cs with agencies)