When Holy Week falls at the end of March: frequent rains and an average of 12.1 degrees

There is still a lot of time (in meteorological terms) until Holy Week and, no matter how hard we try, it is impossible to have a reliable forecast 18 days ahead of the start of the festivities, which this year will begin on Sunday, March 24 and end on Monday, April 1.

What you can do is analyze the weather that usually happens that week, which gives some clues about the weather that is likely to happen.

In this regard, the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has published once again its

Climatological Notes for Holy Week 2024

,

prepared by César Rodríguez Ballesteros, from the National Climatological Data Bank.

As the author himself emphasizes, this is an analysis of the weather that he has done over the last 43 years, between 1981 and 2023, “but in no case a prediction for Easter 2024″.

The summary is that cloudy days prevail, rains are frequent and temperatures are mild, with an average of 12.1°.

#AEMETBlog

Climatological Notes for #HolyWeek 2024

The objective of this analysis is to obtain a summary of what the days between March 24 and April 1 have been like in the last 43 yearshttps://t.co/eICgxZEFjp pic .twitter.com/DrM5575bwt

— AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) March 6, 2024

And what do these climatological data say?

To begin with, temperatures these days are usually mild, as corresponds to the beginning of spring, with an average of 12.1°.

In the southern half of the peninsula, average temperatures range between 12° and 15°, approaching 16° on the Andalusian coast and in the province of Seville.

In the northern half, lower, between 7° and 10° on the plateau and between 10° and 13° in the rest.

In the Balearic Islands, between 13° and 15° and in the Canary Islands, 19° in coastal areas.

As Ballesteros recalls, “one of the characteristics of these spring dates is its great climatic variability, also evident in the temperatures.”

The year in which the days were warmest was 2023, with an average temperature of 15.2°, while the coldest was 1992 with 7.8°.

Of recent years, those days last year were extremely warm, those in 2022 were normal, and those in 2021 were very warm.

Where it has been the hottest these days throughout these 43 years is in the Guadalquivir valley and in the interior of Murcia, with almost 22°;

followed by the Guadiana valley and coastal areas of Alicante and Valencia with about 20°.

And it is not uncommon for 30° to fall, with a record in Valencia of 33.2°.

On the other hand, the lowest maximums were in Ávila with 22.8°, León with 23.4° and Burgos with 23.5°.

And does it usually rain?

It is also very variable, but the usual thing is that cloudy days predominate and there are “frequent rains.”

Where it is least common is in Almería and Murcia, between one and two days that week, and where it is most common, between five and six, in Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria and the Basque Country.

In the Balearic Islands, between two and four days and in the Canary Islands, between one and two.

But it is not that it rains much, in general between 10 and 15 liters per square meter throughout the week, less in Almería with between 5 and 10 and more in A Coruña and Pontevedra with between 40 and 60.

By provincial capital, it rains more in A Coruña (63.5% of days), Lugo (61.4%), Oviedo (60.1%), Bilbao (57.4%), San Sebastián (56.3%). %) and Ourense (54.7%).

In the report, you can consult the percentage of days that it rained in a specific season on a specific day, for example on March 28, Maundy Thursday in 2024, it rained in Seville on 32.6% of the days.

In addition to the rain, “the most present meteor,” there has also been snow, especially in Soria with 13.6% of the days.

And beyond the climatological analysis, nothing can be said about what this Easter in particular will be like?

Yes, but a little.

Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for Aemet, recalls that, with the current tools of meteorological science, it is impossible to offer a true prediction beyond seven or 10 days and “even more so in a season like spring, when the weather can change quickly. ”.

But you can give some notes thanks to the monthly prediction.

“Right now, in terms of temperatures, there is no clear trend in most of Spain, although they could be somewhat warmer than usual for the season on the Mediterranean side and the archipelagos,” says Del Campo.

Regarding the rains, this expert continues, “to this day, we cannot conclude anything.

It is too early".

“Perhaps we would have a situation of Atlantic storm circulation with precipitation, especially in Galicia, but a period of more than two weeks in spring is too long,” he concludes.