As of: March 7, 2024, 6:12 p.m
By: Bona Hyun
Comments
Press
Split
Economists worry about the consequences of a Trump comeback.
The German economy would have to expect high losses - there is also the threat of a new trade war with China.
Washington, DC – One thing is certain even before the election of the US President: Donald Trump will run as the Republican candidate.
The ex-president still enjoys great popularity among Republicans.
If Trump were to be re-elected as US President, there could be consequences that could cause major problems for the German economy.
US election in November: Trump's re-election costs the German economy 120 billion euros
Trump had announced in advance that he would impose a minimum tariff of ten percent on imports from all countries.
This would be a particularly serious blow for German companies that export to the USA.
The loss of gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany would probably amount to more than 120 billion euros over Trump's entire term in office.
The German Economic Institute came to this conclusion by running through various scenarios in a simulation.
If he wins the election, his politics are likely to become even more extreme: Donald Trump.
© Evan Vucci/AP/dpa
There is also a fear that German GDP will be 1.2 percent lower in 2028 as a result of the tariff barriers than in the base scenario without a new trade and customs dispute from 2025. Over the four years, the GDP losses - calculated at constant prices - would increase. add up to a good 120 billion euros for Germany.
If Trump is re-elected: losses for the German automotive industry
There would also be serious consequences for the German automotive industry.
The USA has been coming to the fore as a production location for some time now.
Mercedes had already announced that it would expand its production in the USA; the BMW plant in South Carolina is now the group's largest in the world.
Charging stations for BMW and Mercedes electric cars are also to be doubled.
The reason given for expanding the location is that the USA is far ahead of Germany when it comes to energy prices, taxes and raw material security.
US President Joe Biden's support for the Inflation Reduction Act is also an incentive.
If Trump is re-elected, European car manufacturers could
face punitive tariffs on their exports to the USA, according to
Automobilwoche .
This would particularly affect the German premium manufacturers BMW and Mercedes.
Trump sees the global economy as a “zero-sum game,” warned IfW President Moritz Schularick to the
Augsburger Allgemeine.
“He wants to protect domestic industries from foreign competition, and this protectionism would especially harm the German export economy.
Of course, the first thing to think of is German car manufacturers, but we have also already experienced trade barriers for steel and washing machines under Trump.”
My news
Return transfers of social benefits: This is how much money asylum seekers really transfer to their home countries
Fashion industry under pressure: The next major German fashion chain files for bankruptcy
Hubertus Heil wants a pension like in Austria: That's why pensioners in the neighboring country read more money
Pension system like in Austria: Hubertus Heil wants civil servants to pay into the pension fund
Traffic light law on pensions: From 2028, employees will have significantly less net from the gross reading
Rail strike started: What does GDL boss Claus Weselsky actually earn? read
Trump could trigger a new trade war with China if re-elected
In addition, another trade war with China could flare up.
Trump is considering imposing a tariff of as much as 60 percent on Chinese imports.
This was reported by three people familiar with the matter to the
Washington Post.
In the event that China resists the US's trade policy and in response increases tariffs on US imports by 40 percentage points, this would probably cost the German economy 150 billion euros, according to IW experts.
This reaction on the part of the Chinese would not be unthinkable.
As president, Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods in June 2018.
Beijing countered with tariffs of its own, and the spiral continued until the two countries reached an agreement in 2020.
Trump recently won the presidential election on Super Tuesday in 14 of 15 states.
His last remaining competitor dropped out of the race the morning after Super Tuesday.
Polls show people want neither Trump nor Biden.
(bohy)