As of: March 7, 2024, 12:57 p.m
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With Haley out of the race, a new fight for the presidency between Trump and Biden is imminent.
A tough election campaign that could divide the USA even further.
Washington - President Biden's campaign aides have long believed that Biden's chances of electoral success would improve once the presidential race becomes a clear contrast between two candidates.
Facing voters with the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House would boost Biden's chances of winning the presidency.
With the Super Tuesday elections over and Trump's last major GOP rival, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, dropping her campaign, Biden's allies now have their chance - and eight months of political battle - to prove their theory.
The Trump vs. Biden race is already underway
The 2024 presidential election is in full swing - and promises to be the longest, most expensive and perhaps most divisive presidential race in recent memory.
The two men's reactions to Tuesday's results gave a hint of what voters can expect in a rematch of the 2020 race that many have long feared.
Both rushed to attack the other, calling the election an existential moment for the country.
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“He is driven by resentment and greed and is seeking his own revenge and retribution, not the American people,” Biden said of Trump in a statement Tuesday night.
“He is the worst president in the history of our country,” Trump told his supporters around the same time, calling Election Day 2024 “the most important day in the history of our country.”
Biden and Trump as a symbol of the division in the country
As the two campaigns increasingly focus on the presidential election, voters face a choice between candidates whose temperament and policy differences reflect a country deeply divided not only by political preferences but also socially and culturally.
“This is an election of two Americas,” said Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist.
“There is an America that is about pluralism and inclusivity and democratic norms - and that is Joe Biden.
And then there is another America that is annoyed, angry and cynical - and that is Donald Trump.
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President Biden will deliver a speech at the White House on Tuesday.
© Gabriella Demczuk/The Washington Post
In a rare meeting between two presidents, Payne added, each man has succeeded in appealing to the version of America that he believes represents a path to 270 electoral votes.
“Both have proven their concept,” he said.
“We have seen a successful coalition in both.
Election campaign topics: The weaknesses of the competitor
Both campaigns have narrowed the battleground map primarily to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, with the possible addition of North Carolina.
The Trump campaign is planning a general campaign message focused on inflation, immigration and Biden's mental fitness.
Advisers expect Biden to attack Trump over his role in eliminating the constitutional right to abortion and his efforts to overturn the results of the last presidential election, which led to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.
Even as Haley remained in the race in recent months, both Biden and Trump increasingly turned their fire on each other.
Biden aides have responded to the president's difficulties in polls that show Trump leading in many key states by pointing out that Trump-backed candidates have lost in several races over the past two years.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump will compete again in the duel for the presidency in 2024 (archive image) © Imago/domenicofornas/Pond5 Images
Biden sees his re-election as crucial to preserving American democracy and calls Trump and his incendiary proposals antithetical to the nation's fundamental freedoms and values.
While the president has spent much of the last year touting his economic successes - under the banner of "Bidenomics" - he has often used his recent public statements to directly attack his predecessor.
In his statement Tuesday night, which mentioned Trump by name four times, Biden said his GOP rival wanted to "destroy our democracy" and "abolish basic freedoms."
Biden could use State of the Union speech for election campaign
That argument could come into play during Biden's State of the Union address on Thursday, when he touts his accomplishments and argues for another term.
He could make a case not to reverse the progress made over the last three years, but to move forward.
Trump, for his part, has sought to portray the race as an opportunity for the country to return to what he has described - often incorrectly - as an era of prosperity, unity and calm under his leadership.
“Every single group was better off than ever before - and that was a wonderful thing,” Trump said in his victory speech on Tuesday.
“Our country came together.
And now we have a very divided country.”
Trump raises serious criticism against Biden
He did not mention Haley in his speech and instead repeatedly criticized Biden on issues such as immigration, inflation and global unrest.
“We have watched our country suffer a devastating defeat over the last three years,” Trump said.
He added that he would unite the Republican Party and the country by returning the United States to an era of great "success."
Over the next few months, both men will try to win support within their own parties after dominating in primaries so far but still exposing potential weaknesses in their electoral coalitions.
Trump is not sure of support from traditional Republican voters
Trump's fight against Haley showed his poor standing with some traditionally Republican voters, including right-of-center, college-educated voters and people who reject his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.
Haley's wins in Vermont and Washington, D.C., and her strong showing in college towns and suburban communities illustrate the work Trump must do in the coming months to unify his party.
Haley did not support Trump when she withdrew from the race on Wednesday, saying the former president needed to earn the support of her supporters.
Biden's advisers have studied the results of the Republican primaries.
By tracking where and with whom Haley has performed well, they hope to gain insight into how to target their own spending in the coming months.
Who will Nikki Haley's followers choose?
In a memo released Tuesday, Biden campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez and strategist Jen O'Malley Dillon pointed to Haley's performance as evidence that "Trump is severely underperforming with the voters who will decide the election in November."
They particularly noted that Haley performed well in the GOP primaries in Michigan, North Carolina and the Virginia suburbs.
“A significant portion of moderate and Haley voters across the country say Trump cannot count on their votes in the election,” the authors said.
Biden has already begun wooing those voters, praising Haley for the race she ran in a statement Wednesday.
“Donald Trump has made it clear that he doesn’t want Nikki Haley’s supporters,” Biden said.
“I want to be clear: there is a place for her in my campaign.”
“Double haters”: Some voters want neither Trump nor Biden in the White House
However, Scott Reed, a longtime Republican strategist, predicted that "a good portion" of Haley's voters will eventually support Trump, although it will be difficult for some to support either candidate.
“Some of them will never regain consciousness,” Reed said.
"And there is this new phenomenon in this election cycle that some are calling 'double haters,' because both candidates are old and very polarizing." Biden is 81 and Trump is 77.
Primary election protest against President Biden's support for Israel
Biden, whose little-known Democratic challengers have struggled to gain a foothold in the primaries, still faces the challenge of consolidating his own coalition.
Especially when it comes to divisions highlighted by his support for Israeli military action in Gaza.
Arab Americans, progressives and other key voter groups have campaigned in the Democratic primary to voice their displeasure with the war and Biden's handling of it.
In Minnesota on Tuesday, almost 20 percent of voters chose the “uncommitted” option rather than Biden.
Pro-Palestinian activists had tried to turn the primary into a protest against Israel's crackdown in the Gaza Strip, which has killed more than 30,000 people.
Last month, more than 100,000 voters in the crucial state of Michigan voted “uncommitted.”
In addition, Biden must allay voters' concerns about his advanced age and try to improve his poor poll numbers on such hot-button issues as the economy and immigration.
With the Republican war chest and party establishment now fully behind Trump, he will likely face a barrage of attacks on these and other issues.
Market research expects high spending on election advertising
Political advertising from both parties is sure to increase in the coming months, with each candidate seeking to define their opponent in the minds of voters.
Market research firm Ad Impact expects to spend $2.7 billion on presidential advertising this cycle.
Biden will be under pressure to improve his poll numbers in the coming months.
But Trump also has a similarly urgent need to catch up with Biden and the Democrats in fundraising while also covering around half a billion dollars in court judgments after losing civil suits.
He also faces four criminal charges, the first of which is scheduled to begin on March 25.
His legal team will try to postpone the proceedings until after the election.
Trump also sees the presidency as a chance for his acquittal
Since the criminal investigation has intensified, Trump has signaled that he sees returning to the White House as perhaps his best chance of averting it.
If elected in November, Trump could seek to appoint an attorney general who would drop the two federal cases against him and push for state cases against a sitting president to be dropped.
But even as Biden has doubled down on Trump's inflammatory comments and Haley has attacked him over his legal troubles in recent months, the former president's dominance in the Republican race has worried some Democrats, who will now have to find a way to slow his momentum .
“There is this stubborn resistance from Trump, despite the accusations, despite the vitriolic rhetoric,” Payne said.
“There are no unknowns with Trump.
It's not like you can re-examine Trump and uncover new things.
That’s what worries me the most.”
Michael Scherer contributed to this report.
To the authors
Toluse “Tolu” Olorunnipa
is the White House bureau chief at The Washington Post and co-author of “His Name is George Floyd,” which won the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for nonfiction.
He has worked for the Post since 2019 and has covered the last three presidents.
He previously worked at Bloomberg News and the Miami Herald, reporting from Washington and Florida.
Isaac Arnsdorf
is a national political reporter for The Washington Post covering former President Donald Trump, the Make America Great Again political movement and the Republican Party.
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on March 6, 2024 at “Washingtonpost.com” - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.