The populist threat: how Bukele or Milei torpedo the democratic advances of Latin America

Central America knows how to set trends.

At least in politics.

The year 1954 is a clear example, because the coup d'état took place against the president of Guatemala, Jacobo Árbenz, who stood up to the interests of the powerful Guatemalan oligarchy and American companies, mainly the United Fruit Company.

That military mutiny “marked the beginning of an era of legitimization of political violence to eliminate populist leaders,” write María Esperanza Casullo and Harry Brown, authors of

Populism in Central America

(21st Century), a work that analyzes the emergence from radical leaders like Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, another demagogue Central American politician whose heavy-handed measures to eradicate violence have sparked a wave of admiration across the continent, from Panama to Argentina.

“Central America and the Caribbean in no way follow the political trends of their southern (or northern) neighbors, but, on the contrary, often inaugurate them or mark milestones,” the authors state in the book.

For Casullo, from Argentina, and Brown, from Costa Rica, what is happening in that strip of land that unites the continent helps to understand the populist advance in the region and its consequences for democracy.

Both authors talked about this global phenomenon through a video call.

“Populism is a warning of what has gone wrong in democracy,” warns Brown.

Bukele is in the media's eye due to his great popularity.

The controversial Salvadoran president has won reelection with 85% of the votes and maintains control of Congress and justice and, despite his heavy-handed policy and authoritarian drift, his project is supported by the vast majority of voters. Salvadorans.

Why is the young president so attractive to voters?

“Because populism is effective,” responds Casullo, a doctor in Government from Georgetown University, in the United States.

“It generates enthusiasm and mobilization at this historical moment, when doing

normal

politics has many difficulties because it is a time of great uncertainty and polarization,” she adds.

Furthermore, says Casullo, Latin America has problems that governments have not been able to solve, such as inequality, poverty, organized crime, and that is why politicians choose “the populist strategy, because it is effective, it generates political identity, that is, “It generates a mobilized and convinced we,” points out the author.

Leaders like Bukele or the Argentine Javier Milei have been able to read this discontent and gather under their proposals those who feel prisoners of injustice and in this way create a common enemy at which to direct the cannons of discontent, which can be the political parties or the traditional elites (the “caste”, Milei has called it), multinational organizations such as the IMF or the World Bank, civil organizations or activist groups such as feminists, the press, or external powers, be it the United States or the European Union.

“When this story, this populist myth clicks, very deep identification processes are generated.

This allows action, because very profound reforms can be passed, the Constitution reformed, the criminal policy of a country completely transformed, based on that myth,” says the author.

Harry Brown and María Esperanza Casullo.

Radical populists

In their book, the researchers define Bukele as a “radical populist,” although the leader of the small Central American country sells himself as a modern man, an efficient CEO, capable of transforming to improve the great company that has been given to him;

a cool

and friendly young man

who moves the masses through his effective use of social networks.

His actions, however, imitate the old tricks of Latin American authoritarianism, which include messianism and claiming to be anointed by God.

“Bukele became a dissident coming from within the system, he dared to leave the system and point it out and I believe that this is an attitude in which a good part of the population can see itself reflected,” warns Harry Brown, Ph.D. Policies by the Complutense University of Madrid.

“What Bukele did was blame the problems on a political event that for Latin American and Central American democrats is almost sacred, which are the Peace Accords, calling them a pact between the corrupt.

One of the findings of the book is that in Central America the enemy that populists point to are precisely those pacts, which they call agreements between elites that do not allow entry to new actors who could presumably solve the country's problems.

And Bukele, with his attitude and his way of presenting himself, embodies the possibility of a future that Salvadorans could not find,” adds the author.

Costa Rica, considered a solid democracy, has not been spared from this new populist wave.

The country elected Rodrigo Cháves as president, a technocrat who channeled anger toward the elites.

“The case of Costa Rica draws a lot of attention, because it has been and continues to be one of the most solid democracies in Latin America, and now they have a president with very strong populist traits.

The big difference in the Costa Rican case is that the populist myth looks to the past, because it is the only country in Central America, and one of the few in Latin America, that had a small welfare state.

Costa Ricans are really aware that they used to live better, and part of President Chávez's electoral campaign was focused on the idea of ​​once again being the happiest country in the world,” explains Brown.

The authors pay attention in the book to an element that already defines democracy in the region, which is the collapse of traditional party politics.

It is seen in El Salvador, with the collapse of ARENA and the disappearance of the leftist FMLN from popularly elected positions, but also in Costa Rica, where the parties have fallen into a deep crisis.

“The political parties in Central America have never been so strong, but it is true that the accumulation of demands points directly towards those responsible for the political systems.

The paradox of all this is that to build new regimes, which is what some populists propose, organization is needed, so they do not necessarily put an end to political parties, but often end up organizing them, because they need them to mobilize and unite. a population that may not be united through class or ethnicity, as is the case in Bolivia, but that does need an institutionalized body that manages to articulate the mobilization of the population,” says Brown.

The populist wave

Populists like Bukele or Milei generate great attraction at the regional level and their measures raise popularity and are followed by politicians in the region, in what seems to be a new political paradigm in Latin America, from Colombia to Paraguay.

“Populism always operates like this, by imitation of repertoires.

There is no ideology, there is no

Mao

Red Book or a populist fourth international.

They are presented as successful examples that are adapted and copied in other contexts,” explains Calluso.

“We South Americans don't look much at Central America, but what we are seeing now in countries like Argentina are very similar processes.

For example, in Rosario, which has a very large drug trafficking problem, we have seen photos in a prison with the same style as El Salvador, and I think we will continue to see that at least in the medium term,” he adds.

Can the region's democracies survive this populist wave?

“Yes, totally,” says Casullo.

“The best resource for action is strategic patience and betting on political action.

These types of governments have internal fissures, they can be successful, in quotes, in reducing poverty or in reducing crime, but it is very costly to maintain this constant antagonism, and society, which at first may feel enthusiastic and mobilized, Over time he wants to return to having a more or less normal life,” he adds.

“There is hope,” says Brown.

"This populist moment should serve as a warning of what has been going wrong in democracy and I hope that the elites take note and are more aware of what needs to be reformed and what needs to be corrected, because the move from populism to authoritarianism It is exceptional, it is not the rule,” says the Costa Rican political scientist.

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