The United States is set to repeat the 2020 presidential elections between Joe Biden and Donald Trump after this Tuesday's primaries confirmed their dominance over their respective parties.
Republican voters gave victory after victory to Trump on the so-called Super Tuesday, and clearly showed that they are willing to support him despite being charged with 91 crimes in four criminal cases and in the investigation into the assault on the Capitol in January 2021, with the that they tried to subvert the constitutional order.
The warnings of traditional or moderate Republicanism have been ignored and their last hope, Nikki Haley, abandoned the campaign yesterday.
The enormous resources that Haley has enjoyed have not been able to cope with the reality that around half of the Republican Party, especially the humble and less educated sectors, is completely dedicated to Trump, not only as a candidate, but as a mission.
Although after the traumatic all-or-nothing election four years ago they seemed determined to renew their leadership, both parties have ended up offering the same thing to the electorate again.
Democrats did not address Biden's withdrawal (he is 81 and presented himself as a transitional leader) in time, and now they can no longer take a chance on someone less well-known than the president.
The Republicans, after disowning Trump, have been swept away by their own hypocrisy and fear of their followers.
It is therefore expected that the entire party will unite around Trump in the coming months as if nothing had happened, even if he is forced to sit on the bench.
At this point, any possibility of other candidates is remote.
The voters have been clear, the primaries are over and the presidential rematch begins.
They are both older and more unpopular than last time.
It will therefore be a campaign focused not on the virtues but on the defects of the candidates.
In this context, the Democrats' confidence rests on the fact that the coalition of voters who gave the presidency to Joe Biden - from the left of their party to moderate Republicans - is much broader than the one that Trump, a man who provokes a visceral rejection not only among Democrats, but also among a not insignificant portion of Republicans.
That is why every election since 2016 has been favorable to the Democrats.
But 2024 has new keys for which Biden must urgently find an answer.
First, the doubts about his physical and mental ability to continue.
Today's State of the Union address will be an important test of its perceived weakness.
Another challenge of the campaign is irregular immigration, which has become a major problem among Democrats themselves.
Finally, the Gaza war is an emerging conflict that is changing the historical parameters of the relationship between the United States and Israel.
The discomfort in a part of the Democratic electorate over support for Israel is deep and its leader cannot ignore that crack.
The campaign of the current tenant of the White House has the challenge of breaking out of its apparent complacency and overcoming the frustration of a majority of Americans forced to choose between alternatives that do not excite.
Republicans have decided that this is a new election about Trump and, therefore, about democracy itself.