The campaign for the legislative elections in Portugal ended Friday evening.
It could end eight years of socialist government, with the center-right opposition emerging with a slight lead in the polls, which also anticipate strong progress by the populists.
Under the downpours, the main parties concentrated their last efforts in the Lisbon region in order to convince the many voters still undecided before Sunday's vote, which will be preceded the day before by a "day of reflection".
“This election is very important because it can mark a turning point towards a certain convergence of Portugal with the panorama of parties in Europe,” observes political scientist Marina Costa Lobo, director of the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon ( ICS).
Three months before the European elections, this context is marked by “a decline of social democracy, a strengthening of the right and, above all, a strengthening of the extreme right which imposes conditions on the moderate right for the formation of the government “, she explains to AFP.
After the publication of the latest surveys, the Radio Renascença poll aggregator credited the center-right Democratic Alliance with 32.6% of voting intentions, compared to 27.9% for the Socialist Party.
In ambush, the young far-right Chega party could achieve a new breakthrough and confirm its status as the third political force in the country, with 16.8% of the vote, after a score of 7.2% in the previous legislative elections.
Resignation of the Prime Minister
The outgoing Prime Minister, the socialist Antonio Costa, 62, who obtained the absolute majority in January 2022 with 41.4% of the vote, provoked these elections by resigning at the end of November.
He refused to run for a new term, after being cited in an investigation for influence peddling.
Taken by surprise by the departure of Antonio Costa, the Socialist Party rallied around Pedro Nuno Santos, a 46-year-old former minister from its left wing.
“With a new helmsman, we will gain new momentum and continue the path started in 2015,” declared the head of the outgoing government, more present at the end of a difficult campaign for the Socialists.
“We must concentrate our votes on the PS, because this party will always be a port of shelter for the Portuguese,” said Pedro Nuno Santos, who had difficulty defending Mr. Costa's record while promising to do better than him.
Its “positive” results in terms of public finances, growth or employment “are not reflected in the quality of life of the Portuguese because of inflation, low salaries or problems in the functioning of the State”, particularly in health and education, notes political scientist Marina Costa Lobo.
“Reverse the course of the country”
In his last campaign meeting, the leader of the center-right opposition, Luis Montenegro, called on voters to “reverse the course of the country” by posing as the only candidate capable of “uniting Portugal”.
More confident as voting day approached, this 51-year-old veteran parliamentarian was not unanimous in his own camp.
In particular, he made the bet of immediately refusing to govern with the support of the far right, at the risk of finding himself in an impasse if he is not able to form a majority coalition without it.
“No means no,” he repeated throughout debates and interviews.
Founder in 2019 of the populist Chega party, André Ventura, a 41-year-old law professor and former football commentator, has continued to criticize the cordon santé aimed at preventing him from participating in a government coalition.
Chega is “a party as legitimate as all the others”, he asserted on Friday.
This “ultra-personalized” formation around its leader “aggregates a series of discontents present in Portuguese society for a long time”, explains Marina Costa Lobo.
The Portuguese far right, specifies this analyst, is driven by an anti-system discourse against corruption and minorities, as well as by “a certain nostalgia” for the dictatorial regime overthrown by the “Carnation Revolution”, which Portugal will celebrate next month the 50th anniversary.