Donald Trump could move back into the White House in November.
What exactly would the USA - and Europe - expect after his election victory?
Washington DC - Donald Trump is on the rise.
The former US president has achieved one victory after another in the Republican primaries, bringing his rival Nikki Haley to her knees.
Now the only thing that stands between him and returning to the White House is the election in November.
While one part of the US population is eagerly anticipating his election victory, another part is trembling with fear.
An overview of what Trump is planning for the USA and beyond its borders.
Probably the biggest concern that Democrats in the USA in particular have is Trump's “declaration of war” on the Constitution.
Or as the US broadcaster CNN wrote on Wednesday: He is “running with the most extreme program in modern history.”
His desired scenario, among other things, is to receive uncontrolled power from the Supreme Court in order to, according to his own statement, exercise “retaliation” against his political enemies.
According to his own indications, he wants to dismantle the public service in the ministries and fill the positions with political employees.
These are extreme scenarios that may never happen.
But past scandals, including the storming of the Capitol in 2021, have already shown how far at least Trump's supporters can go.
Justice system, immigration, climate change - that's what Donald Trump is planning if he wins the election in November
According to CNN, Trump also made a vague suggestion that he would no longer use the Justice Department as an independent rule-of-law arbiter, but would instead see it as a personal political enforcement machine.
Many of Trump's former aides fear that he could overturn the postwar international system and side with dictators.
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On January 6, 2021, Trump supporters stormed the Capitol and called for violence against police officers.
© Jerry Habraken/IMAGO
The fear of a new, more aggressive Trump is also based on statements regarding immigrants.
People without papers would therefore “poison the blood of the country,” which is why the USA needs mass deportations.
Another big goal of the 77-year-old for the USA: turn the oil and gas taps back on and scrap Biden's climate law.
Biden has pushed through a law that plans to invest around $370 billion over ten years in climate protection.
Among other things, the money will be used to promote renewable energies, provide purchase bonuses for electric cars and tax breaks for heat pumps and solar systems.
The law also provides for a fee on methane emissions, which in turn is intended to cross-finance climate protection in poorer communities.
Germany is also trembling about a Trump election victory - consequences for the European economy and NATO
The course of the US elections is also being closely monitored in Germany.
CDU foreign policy expert Norbert Röttgen sees Trump's election victory as having potentially major consequences for NATO member states.
If the ex-president wins the election, “then Trump 2 will be completely different than Trump 1,” the Bundestag member predicted back in January.
The former US president had already announced during a campaign appearance that he would not protect NATO partners who did not invest enough in defense from Russia in an emergency.
He would “even encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want.”
This questioning of NATO's duty to provide assistance triggered a wave of indignation from Washington to Brussels to Berlin.
At the same time, there is increasing concern in Europe that other countries besides Ukraine could also be attacked in the future.
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Former US President Donald Trump during a Super Tuesday election party at his Mar-a-Lago estate.
© Chandan Khanna/AFP
At the same time, Trump's re-election would cost the German economy, among other things, 120 billion euros.
Trump says he plans to introduce a minimum tariff of ten percent on imports from all countries.
This would be a particularly serious blow for German companies that export to the USA.
The loss of gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany would probably amount to more than 120 billion euros over Trump's entire term in office.
This was the conclusion reached by the German Economic Institute, which ran various scenarios in a simulation.
Donald Trump: The recipe for success of one of the biggest “troublemakers” from the USA
Despite various scandals, escapades and a chaotic term as president, Donald Trump has great support among the party base.
Even major legal problems in the election year - four indictments in criminal proceedings and significant damages in civil proceedings - have so far not harmed Trump politically.
His recipe for success has basically remained the same since 2016: He brands the political system as corrupt and ineffective, and he offers simple explanations for complex economic problems.
In contrast to other politicians who like to suggest “closeness to the people” with their shirt sleeves rolled up, Trump doesn’t even try to do so.
This is exactly what makes him authentic to his followers.
The fact that he is now faced with various criminal proceedings plays perfectly into the narrative of the selfless fighter for the little man.
(nz/afp)
Category list image: © Chandan Khanna/AFP