As of: March 9, 2024, 9:37 p.m
By: Tadhg Nagel
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Nuclear escalation no longer seems to be ruled out.
Russia has threatened this several times.
At times, the United States was prepared for the worst.
Washington - Russia has threatened the West to use nuclear weapons several times during the Ukraine war.
Even though an actual deployment was always unlikely - and was even ruled out by Russian President Vladimir Putin - the USA had prepared for an emergency.
The Russian president sparked concern last year when Moscow announced it would move some of its nuclear arsenal to Belarus.
This is “an element of deterrence so that those who want to inflict a strategic defeat on us do not overlook this fact.”
At the same time, Putin always emphasized that there was no intention to use the weapons.
At least so far.
At the State of the Nation address on February 29th, he warned - probably in response to French President Emmanuel Macron's consideration of sending troops to Ukraine - that the West must recognize "that we also have weapons that can target them Territory can hit”.
The use of nuclear weapons was once again on the table.
Catastrophic loss as a “potential trigger” - US worried about Putin's reaction
Apparently, the government of US President Joe Biden has long been concerned about a nuclear escalation of the conflict, as can be seen from a report by US broadcaster
CNN
.
Since 2022, there have been fears that Russia could use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine;
Therefore, an emergency plan was made to “prepare rigorously and do everything possible to prevent this.”
This is how an unnamed US government official described it to the portal.
According to a second government official, the fears were “not just hypothetical”;
they were “also based on information that we had received”.
Would Vladimir Putin have been willing to use nuclear weapons?
© IMAGO/Mikhail Metzel/Kremlin Pool
From late summer to autumn 2022, the National Security Council has therefore convened a series of meetings to take emergency precautions.
The fact that the Russian armed forces had suffered severe setbacks at the time was taken into account.
With the advance of Ukrainian troops on the city of Kherson, the Russians were in danger of being surrounded.
It was believed within the government that such a catastrophic loss could be a “potential trigger” for the use of nuclear weapons.
Higher risk at 'some other time' - Russian officials considered nuclear strike
Russia lost ground within Ukrainian territory, not within Russia.
However, US officials were concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin might see things differently - after all, he had told the Russian people that Kherson was now part of Russia.
“Our assessment has been for some time that one of the scenarios in which they would consider using nuclear weapons would include things like existential threats to the Russian state, direct threats to Russian territory,” the first administration official said in the report.
This, together with the false reports circulating in Russia at the time that Ukraine had a dirty bomb, gave rise to concern.
In addition, Western intelligence services had obtained information indicating that Russian officials were explicitly considering a nuclear strike.
This was at least something “that was discussed at lower levels of the Russian system,” the administration official told
CNN
.
There is “never a clear, black and white assessment”.
But it appeared that the level of risk was increasing “beyond what it had been at any other time.”
With allies “better and stronger” - diplomatic efforts to prevent the worst
As a result, observations were intensified.
“We obviously placed a great deal of emphasis on tracking and had at least some ability to track such movements of its nuclear forces,” the official continued.
Fortunately, no signs of an impending deployment could be discovered at any time.
There was only uncertainty regarding tactical nuclear weapons.
These are small enough to be moved inconspicuously and can be fired from conventional systems that were already deployed on the Ukrainian battlefield at the time.
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In order to prevent this, diplomatic efforts have been intensified.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken conveyed US concerns “very directly” to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
In addition, Joe Biden invited CIA Director Bill Burns to talk to Sergei Naryshkin, the head of the Russian foreign intelligence service, in Turkey in order to assess Russian intentions.
Last but not least, according to the government official, “a series of quiet discussions have been held with key allies.”
After all, the “hallmark of our entire approach” is that you are “better and stronger” when you coordinate with your allies.
(tpn)